tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post1595116642182452585..comments2023-10-26T01:59:40.483-07:00Comments on The Dividist Papers: The Centrist Granfalloonmwhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-59254981106874372162011-03-10T14:05:52.059-08:002011-03-10T14:05:52.059-08:00hey MW, just saw your final, lengthy update today....hey MW, just saw your final, lengthy update today. Judging from your response, I think you've misunderstood two specific points I made in my post at Poli-Tea, which I assume is a result of lack of clarity on my part. <br /><br />Yes, there are 40% self-described indies. And I agreed that, judging from the way they vote, many are indistinguishable from weak partisans. But I disputed the percentage of Independent Independents which you pegged at 13-14% on the basis of the CATO study. As I show in the post and in the previous post dissecting the study on which the Miller-Mccune article is based, 13-14% is very likely an underestimation of the viable Independent vote. I would place it at around 20% of the national electorate. <br /><br />Secondly, the fractal fallacy is using national polls as indicative of the ideological/partisan/political breakdown in any given state or locale. The fractal fallacy is the assumption that any given state or local district will reliably reflect the nation as whole. <br /><br />Nationally there may be 30-40% of the electorate who call themselves indies, and 20% who could be considered reliable Indy voters. But the numbers are quite different in different states and locales. In some states Independents are the MAJORITY. My example was Rhode Island. The majority of registered voters there are Independents. They elected their first Independent governor last year. (There are at least 10 other states in which indies outnumber D's and R's combined, and a few more in which they outnumber one or the other.) Now, RI has divided government, with an Independent governor and a Democratic legislature. <br /><br />Finally, I would take your call for divided government and raise you one. Divided government is considered to be control of the executive by one major party and control of the legislature by the other. More superior would be a legislature which is itself divided such that NO PARTY HAS MAJORITY CONTROL. The election of just 3 or 4 more Independents in the US Senate would ensure this. Just a few dozen Independents and third party candidates in the House would do the same.d.erishttp://politeaparty.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-48586909282823998312011-03-08T12:00:38.890-08:002011-03-08T12:00:38.890-08:00An invitation to anyone who actually completed the...An invitation to anyone who actually completed the long slog through this post and comments: I am interested in doing an unscientific mapping of where readers of this post may fall in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nolan_Chart" rel="nofollow">Nolan Chart Universe</a> orbiting the Centrist black hole at the top of the post. I will update the image with any in the commentariat who let know in the comments or e-mail of their results on the <a href="http://www.theadvocates.org/quiz" rel="nofollow">Political Quiz</a>. Yeah - I know all the problems with this quiz. We'll use it anyway. Its easy. <br /><br />My e-mail is mw AT dividist DOT com.mwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-20877339529065066282011-03-06T13:18:14.293-08:002011-03-06T13:18:14.293-08:00Tying off some loose ends and responding to some o...Tying off some loose ends and responding to some of the other comments. <br /><br />@D.Eris<br />I embedded my reply in an update to the post itself, as I had problems commenting on <a href="http://politeaparty.blogspot.com/2011/03/divided-government-and-independent.html" rel="nofollow">your blog</a>. <br /><br />@M.Simon<br />The problem with labeling the truly Independent 14% swing vote as libertarian is the opposite of the problem with the 40% who self identify independent. The self-identified independents mostly aren't, while the 14% do have libertarian tendencies, but do not self-identify that way. In the past, I have called them <a rel="nofollow">"libertarianish"</a>. Probably as good a label as any. <br /><br />BTW - I am taking your comment as an endorsement of divided government, so you have now earned your third consecutive appearance in <i><a href="http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/2011/03/coalition-of-divided-2012-election.html" rel="nofollow">The Coalition of the Divided</a></i>.Congratulations!<br /><br />@Dale Hess<br />Proportional representation smacks of Parliamentary systems. You can argue the merits of a European style Parliamentary Democracy vs. our Constitutional Presidential / Divided legislature system, but that is the system we have. I like it better, and think the likelihood of our ever moving to a proportional parliamentary system to be so remote as to be non-existent and frankly, not worth worrying about. <br /><br />I appreciate all the comments and feedback. My intent is to do a rewrite and try to tighten this up a bit (operative word "try")- then post at Donklephant to keep the discussion going. Stay tuned.mwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-79993585649683889092011-03-04T15:01:27.367-08:002011-03-04T15:01:27.367-08:00"a thoughtful critique. Misguided and wrong, ..."a thoughtful critique. Misguided and wrong, but thoughtful."<br /><br />hehd.erishttp://politeaparty.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-67381320846359997352011-03-04T00:33:07.883-08:002011-03-04T00:33:07.883-08:00Sol,
I think it worthwhile to first note that to ...Sol,<br />I think it worthwhile to first note that to a very large degree we are closely aligned on most issues, and in complete agreement about the destination. The questions I raise are about the most practical path to get there. Even so, our differences could be characterized as tactical vs. strategic. Now, I wouldn't quite characterize it that way myself, just saying it could. I would characterize more like practical political reality vs. wide eyed fantasy. But that is just me. In any case, a real political movement needs both. That said, I want to correct a few items in your comments. <br /><br /><i>"Don't put words into my mouth."</i>-sk in reference to: <i>"It is built on the illusion that there is a large and viable independent voting coalition in the American electorate."</i>-mw<br /><br />If yo go back and reread that paragraph, you'll see that the "it" in the sentence you objected to was referencing "Independentvoting.org", and not referencing "Kleinsworth lament". Although, I will admit I could have written that more clearly and I can see why you read it the way you did. So - on that point, I was actually saying the same thing you did in your comment, that the foundation of that organization has rotted away. <br /><br />I'll also stipulate to your assertions about the nature of the moderate middle (less lib then dems, less conservative then Reps). That is not the point. The point is that the rubber meets the road in the voting booth. You have to look at how they actually vote. The majority of those independent Centrists vote exactly like partisans. It is not because they are deluded or idealogues hve commandeered the parties.It is not because they have no choice. It is because it is human nature to move to a comfort zone when faced with decision or controversy. The comfort zone is the party they lean toward. This is well documented voter behavior. <br /><br />There is a smaller subset of that group that will actually change their party vote on an election by election basis. That is the group that is available to organize around a common political goal now. <br /><br />You know this to be true. Tell me what happens at "No Labels" every time a real substantive issue is put on the table in the discussion groups? Do you see these self-selected Centrists rally around a common solution? Or do you see it segment immediately into a familiar partisan divide with a much much smaller subset willing to embrace a compromise? That smaller subset is all you have to work with there, and it will be a different subset on each specific issue. <br /><br />Look - you are absolutely right about all the kinds of nuts and bolts / grass roots / think tanks / etc. etc. efforts needed to build a real movement. I applaud you and support you in this endeavor. I just think there is a much simpler, straightforward, more attainable goal - which is to try and organize a smaller base of voters (half the "real" independents? 5-7%?) to be a consistent vote based on a simple and easily understood organizing principle, with a potential real political consequence of forcing moderation and compromise at the Federal level. <br /><br />These are not mutually exclusive strategies. <br /><br />Think of it this way. The patient is bleeding out in the middle of the road. A crowd of 35 Independent Centrists have gathered around the scene of the accident. You are saying "C'mon everybody! Lets all work together to build a hospital for this guy!" <br /><br />I'm saying, "OK, but I need five guys right now to put a tourniquet on him, apply CPR and get him off the road."mwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-27039182392210952732011-03-03T17:42:31.790-08:002011-03-03T17:42:31.790-08:00I've made the same comment at Poli-Tea, but:
...I've made the same comment at Poli-Tea, but:<br /><br />Trying to control government by dividing it is like driving a car with overly-sensitive steering: Turn left! Too far, turn right! Too far, turn left! Eventually, you'll go spinning out of control.<br /><br />If you want independents--or moderates or centrist or whatever you want to call them--elected, then consensus-seeking election methods are absolutely necessary. Either single-winner elections with approval or range voting, or a method of proportional representation. Anything else favors voices toward the extremes. Even if 80%* of voters think the choice on the left is too-far-left, and 80% of voters think the voice on the right is too-far-right, then it's impossible for any solitary 3rd-party choice to win.<br /><br />Consensus-seeking elections would keep us on the correct course, without constantly over-correcting.<br /><br />(*83.33%, but who's counting?)Dale Sheldon-Hesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07974707193305445403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-73659315280412010682011-03-02T10:24:12.150-08:002011-03-02T10:24:12.150-08:00"Uh. No matter what they call themselves fisc..."Uh. No matter what they call themselves fiscally conservative socially liberal sounds pretty libertarian to me. You could also call it the Leave Us Alone Party."<br /><br />Libertarians go MUCH farther both ways than centrists do.<br /><br /><br />"BTW this is no time for moderation. You want us to go broke half as fast?"<br /><br />Is that a joke?<br /><br />Neither side is willing to do a damn thing about the budget. Both sides have to give to reach any realistic path towards solvency, like the fiscal commission's recommendations. Its no surprise that moderates are the biggest champions of these things, the worst partisans on both sides are so beholden to their interests that they'd rather see the country go bankrupt than vote on something that would require their side to share in the pain.Solomon Kleinsmithhttp://www.riseofthecenter.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-87346315143694659402011-03-02T06:46:02.057-08:002011-03-02T06:46:02.057-08:00Uh. No matter what they call themselves fiscally c...Uh. No matter what they call themselves fiscally conservative socially liberal sounds pretty libertarian to me. You could also call it the <b>Leave Us Alone</b> Party. <br /><br />===<br /><br />BTW this is no time for moderation. You want us to go broke half as fast? <br /><br />Once the money is fixed I'm switching sides to strengthen the "social liberal" side.<br /><br />In other words - I'll settle for serial balance with the object - smaller government.M. Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09508934110558197375noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-52106904470950792182011-03-01T15:50:30.534-08:002011-03-01T15:50:30.534-08:00"Despite Kleinsmith's assertions to the c..."Despite Kleinsmith's assertions to the contrary, an Independent voter foundation was built and still exists. The Reform Party did build an Independent foundation, and that foundation remains the underpinning of the Independent Voting organization today."<br /><br />I'm not talking about a psychic foundation, I'm talking about a real foundation. The rise of the more liberal part of the democratic tent was preceeded by years of interest group foundation building. The rise of the more conservative part of the republican party was preceeded by years of the same on their end.<br /><br />Having millions of people who agree with you in principle means nothing unless you have a framework through which they can focus their collective energies. After the Reform Party fell apart, that foundation went away.<br /><br /><br />"It is built on the illusion that there is a large and viable independent voting coalition in the American electorate."<br /><br />Don't put words into my mouth.<br /><br />My contention is, and this is easily backed up by polling data that I'm sure you're familiar with, that a plurality of the American people are less liberal than democrats, and less conservative than republicans. These centrist to moderate left and right leaners agree on political issues as much as the two major parties used to internally, before they started getting taken over by ideologues.<br /><br />But a movement doesn't come from nowhere. There needs to be a network, a foundation if you will, of think tanks, issue orgs, grassroots groups, candidates and media entities to keep it rolling.<br /><br />The Reform Party started from the Top Down... built a house on naked ground.<br /><br />The foundation doesn't exist now, but the raw materials do. If we want something to happen in the medium to long term, to fight back against the extremism on both sides, we need to stop pinning our hopes on billionaires, and start building at the local level, and/or starting other entities necessary for that foundation.<br /><br />No Labels is the closest thing to this, although some think tanks are moving that direction as well, with more centrist work being done than liberal or conservative. Eliot Cutler, Lincoln Chafee, Rick Snyder, Michael Bloomberg, Olympia Snowe... these are our leaders right now. As the two major parties continue their move away from the center, more and more of these will be pushed out, and more and more people will run as independents.<br /><br />Hence the name of my blog.<br /><br />Solomon Kleinsmith<br />Rise of the CenterSolomon Kleinsmithhttp://www.riseofthecenter.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-64199230691234521922011-03-01T14:18:34.406-08:002011-03-01T14:18:34.406-08:00I could've told you that any deal required to ...I could've told you that any deal required to get a woman to watch football with you is going to turn out bad. Bad bad bad.Tullyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03842067230152580405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-89865767106679387422011-02-28T18:14:43.634-08:002011-02-28T18:14:43.634-08:00I cut a bad deal. She watched the Superbowl with m...I cut a bad deal. She watched the Superbowl with me. I lost on both ends of that deal.mwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-11017206695435688202011-02-28T17:55:35.685-08:002011-02-28T17:55:35.685-08:00My God, man, what did you do that she insisted on ...My God, man, what did you do that she insisted on exacting such an unhuman revenge?Tullyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03842067230152580405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-5576368799215370472011-02-28T15:49:07.299-08:002011-02-28T15:49:07.299-08:00That's what they told Mozart - too many notes....That's what they told Mozart - too many notes.<br /><br />I needed to keep myself occupied while my wife made me watch the Oscars with her.mwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-43654275322850606872011-02-28T15:31:17.237-08:002011-02-28T15:31:17.237-08:00Kryst man... write a novel why doncha! haha
Will ...Kryst man... write a novel why doncha! haha<br /><br />Will try to get back to this later.<br /><br />Solomon Kleinsmith<br />Rise of the CenterSolomon Kleinsmithhttp://www.riseofthecenter.comnoreply@blogger.com