tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post2047859514732473485..comments2023-10-26T01:59:40.483-07:00Comments on The Dividist Papers: Ten in Ten Wherein we explore the prospects for restoring divided government by means of the GOP winning the Senatemwhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-88318968542761540862010-10-23T07:01:38.277-07:002010-10-23T07:01:38.277-07:00Anon,
No - I said all I had to say about Christine...Anon,<br />No - I said all I had to say about Christine O'Donnell in <a rel="nofollow">this post</a>. However, since she has no chance of winning, I am perfectly happy with the Dems and the Media focused on her, and taking their eye off the ball on the Senate Races that matter.mwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-49914449154945222902010-10-22T16:58:33.456-07:002010-10-22T16:58:33.456-07:00At least you didn't include Christine O'Do...At least you didn't include Christine O'Donnell in this list.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-30579010688079954452010-09-03T08:08:15.595-07:002010-09-03T08:08:15.595-07:00Leiberman may be loyal only to Leiberman, but he k...Leiberman may be loyal only to Leiberman, but he knows he would find it VERY difficult to get re-elected as a Republican, and he's up again in '12. His constituency and his own consistent centrist/liberal philosophy are such that he would get savaged trying to be a Republican in a "Tea Party Revolution" Congress. He's safer staying indie and swinging as he sees fit, caucusing mostly with the Dems. <br /><br />Of course, I could be wrong, but I like to stick with the odds ... ;-)<br /><br />My take is based on a fairly conservative "odds" approach that takes into account the time remaining and the fact that while it's only two months, it still ain't over until it's over and future events can swing the margins. If I were betting on what the elections would produce if held <i>today</i>, my numbers would be somewhat higher for the GOP. But for now I'm sticking with the bookie numbers -- and trying to find one that will sell me the over.Tullyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03842067230152580405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-47930854956604973662010-09-02T11:46:19.101-07:002010-09-02T11:46:19.101-07:00Sabato has a new prediction out today that are clo...Sabato has a <a href="http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2010090201/" rel="nofollow">new prediction</a> out today that are close to mine on the Senate and yours on the house and govs. <br /><br />I'm just glad I got my post and predictions out ahead of Sabato, as he is making many of the same points. Now I can claim he cribs from my blog. <br /><br />I think Lieberman is loyal to Lieberman first. He was ready to run on the McCain ticket. McCain backed out. If it means keeping his chairmanship, he'll flip. OTOH, if Sabato is right and the GOP wins nine more outright, he may not be needed, Nelson will give them the majority.mwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-71469769765053408252010-09-02T11:16:05.616-07:002010-09-02T11:16:05.616-07:00Oh, and the GOP looks to pick up a net of 8 govern...Oh, and the GOP looks to pick up a net of 8 governorships this cycle as well.Tullyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03842067230152580405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-62035849468513381042010-09-02T11:13:05.922-07:002010-09-02T11:13:05.922-07:00Leiberman's not really in play. His loyalty to...Leiberman's not really in play. His loyalty to the Dems has been proven over and over again -- he will oppose them when he thinks they're dead wrong, but he will not leave them, even when they try to shoo him away by beating him with a stick.<br /><br />Nelson, on the other hand ... switching to GOP is about the ONLY thing that could help him get re-elected at this point. That, or the full frontal <i>mea culpa</i> in public as regards his ObamaCare vote.<br /><br />Current House/Senate seat-flip over/under is now +GOP 48/7, and your friendly neighborhood political bookie will most happily sell you the under in either house of Congress, while being most reluctant to sell you the over. <br /><br />Hitting the "push" would give the GOP a majority of 226 to 209 in the House, and a filibuster-sustaining-even-with-Snowe-and-Collins-and-Brown 48 seats in the Senate. <br /><br />In the House, well, of the 35 seats that look like toss-ups and aren't already leaning strongly GOP in the polling, only ONE is currently GOP. There are only about 4 GOP seats really in play for potential switching, but 65 or more Dem seats in serious play -- or already lost. <br /><br />In the Senate, the GOP is pretty certain of picking up at least three seats before toss-ups are considered, bringing them to 44. Of the seven seats in the toss-up category right now, six are DEM seats and the other is the Rubio/Crist race, where even if Crist wins he'll caucus GOP. So the GOP can reasonably expect to get to at least 47 seats anyway.<br /><br />The GOP could well match or exceed the 1994 switch numbers of 54/8 this cycle.Tullyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03842067230152580405noreply@blogger.com