tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post5073812474435067971..comments2023-10-26T01:59:40.483-07:00Comments on The Dividist Papers: Election Reflectionsmwhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-25409661853248296212010-11-03T11:32:56.730-07:002010-11-03T11:32:56.730-07:00"All politics is local" survives, but th..."All politics is local" survives, but the meaning of what is "local" expands right along with the expansion of government at the state and federal levels. We're in the 24/7 Information Age, and the increasing omnipresence of the feds in our day-to-day lives (and our wallets) makes federal issues into local ones. <br /><br />I've blown election predictions before, almost always by being too cautious in trend/sentiment estimation. I tried to be real careful this time to follow the trends, but to bound them by discounting the hyperbolic estimation of effects. <br /><br />The DNC did a pretty damn good job of firewalling in the Western states, deploying money and GOTV and union support to the fullest. In Illinois ... not so much. Barry's seat went GOP, which is about as hard a head-slap as can be. And I was always less certain about putting PA in the gimme category than most were, though Toomey managed to pull it off over and above the always-last-reported margin-of-Philly.<br /><br />IMHO the biggest ignored (by the MSM) story of the evening was Brewer's re-election in AZ. Why, it's amost as if they didn't want to report how popular her immigration positions were with the AZ public ... <br /><br />Sorry about Boxer and Brown.Tullyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03842067230152580405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-76486107503938203022010-11-03T09:56:37.388-07:002010-11-03T09:56:37.388-07:00So now I have two notes to myself. Don't play ...So now I have two notes to myself. Don't play poker with Tully and don't bet with him on election results. I did theoretically <a href="http://donklephant.com/2009/08/13/palin-endorsed-end-of-life-counseling-as-alaska-governor/comment-page-2/#comment-537255" rel="nofollow">earn a bottle of single malt scotch</a> out of this though.<br /><br />My <a href="http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/2010/10/updating-10-in-10-on-10-10-10-at-1010.html" rel="nofollow">guesstimate on the House was too low and the Senate too high</a>. I was overly influenced by the "100 year rule", and the historical precedent that the house had never flipped before the Senate since we've been electing Senators directly. Another rule of thumb bites the dust. Speaking of homilies <i>"All politics is local"</i> is on life support. I count three nationalized House elections in a row. <br /><br />Spam is spam. Even from a President. I've got to think the novelty of getting hourly text messages from the Prez has to be wearing off - even for the the most enthusiastic kool-aid drinker.<br /><br />Net net. We have divided government and a divided Congress for the next two years. Life is good.mwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.com