tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post5140059623792252253..comments2023-10-26T01:59:40.483-07:00Comments on The Dividist Papers: Friday Flotsam - Special "Hosni has left the building." Editionmwhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-36019494337956744772011-02-19T10:44:19.571-08:002011-02-19T10:44:19.571-08:00I guess my standards for competence are a bit high...I guess my standards for competence are a bit higher than a simple lack of spectacular failure.Tullyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03842067230152580405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-40364197110909560562011-02-19T10:20:57.411-08:002011-02-19T10:20:57.411-08:00I'll go with "irrelevant" and "...I'll go with <i>"irrelevant"</i> and <i>"We did not steer those events"</i>. Agreed. That is a statement of simple practical reality. <br /><br />Explicitly shaping the outcome of a popular uprising is pretty difficult thing to do. Although we as a country are not above trying, we have had historically mixed results. From a foreign policy perspective, an effective job under these circumstances includes recognition of the limited range of options available, and avoiding any actions that will be detrimental to US interests regardless of outcome. That was an extraordinarily difficult diplomatic needle to thread. <br /><br />Propping the Mubarak regime has served us well in the region over the last 30 years. That bridge could not be burned while there was still a possibility that he might remain in power. Simultaneously, we had to maintain plausible deniability that we were siding with Mubarak and fighting the people protesting on the street. Indeed, we needed to sound supportive and sympathetic to the protesters so we would not be perceived as the enemy should they emerge triumphant. We actually needed to maintain some creative ambiguity about the official US position and whether by design or luck, the somewhat contradictory statements from the State Department and the administration accomplished exactly that. <br /><br />Also agreed that the Egyptian military was the primary actor steering and shaping the outcome on the ground in Egypt. This is also probably where the greatest US influence was taking place below the radar at the direction of the President and State. There is a very strong and deep Mil-Mil relationship between Egypt and the US. We fund the the Egyptian military to the tune of $1B/year. That buys a lot of leverage directly with the military. We train the Egyptian military, that provides a lot of high level personal contacts. When the final secret history of this is written, it may turn out that we had more influence with the Egyptian military than did Hosni Mubarak. <br /><br />As you said - all's well that ends well. I remain impressed with how this was handled - not because it was clear that we steered anything. More because within the limited range of action available to the US, there was an opportunity to make a lot of really bad, damaging choices. I don't know whether it was luck or skill, but we did not shoot ourselves in the foot, so I'll give Hillary and Barry the benefit of the doubt. A job well done. <br /><br />So far.mwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-70614805090530786872011-02-14T06:37:23.090-08:002011-02-14T06:37:23.090-08:00Deft? Masterful? Irrelevant and inept is my take. ...Deft? Masterful? <i>Irrelevant</i> and <i>inept</i> is my take. The admin and its players were all over the map, often in complete contradiction to each other. The Gang That Couldn't Get Its Story Straight. <br /><br />Well, all's well that ends well, I suppose, and IMHO if anyone had it right it was Hillary when she said that any credible transition would take time -- at the same time Obama was demanding change Right Now. <br /><br />It will likely be many months before we find out how the chips will settle. Let's hope our years of friendly engagement with the Egyptian military pay off. If they do it will not because of the current White House, but in spite of it. I strongly suspect that our own diplomatic efforts were beside the point, that the Egyptian military had its agenda firmly established and that the timing of Mubarak's departure was at most simply timed to coincide with when the White House officially bowed to the pre-determined result. WE did not steer those events, the E-mil did.Tullyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03842067230152580405noreply@blogger.com