tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post670376186386775498..comments2023-10-26T01:59:40.483-07:00Comments on The Dividist Papers: Carnival of Divided Government LI Unus et Quînquâgintâ Special Leap Year/Day Editionmwhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-4065734271019835022012-03-03T06:20:39.593-08:002012-03-03T06:20:39.593-08:00Good point on Intrade. I'm actually surprised ...Good point on Intrade. I'm actually surprised I hadn't looked into it yet since I was watching it in 2010. Still showing 'conventional wisdom' is 60% chance that Obama will win WH and GOP will control both houses.joshuahttp://www.postlibertarian.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-25816728123391252362012-03-02T11:20:30.021-08:002012-03-02T11:20:30.021-08:00I am well aware of that fact Anon. My comments on ...I am well aware of that fact Anon. My comments on the $2T of new spending passed in two bills, in two years, on purely partisan votes was specifically in response to Ezra Klein pining for the kind of One Party Democratic Rule which permits that sort of "miracle" to happen.<br /><br />Your comment regarding the $2T+ of new spending on two decade-long wars initiated during the first two year of our last episode One Party Republican Rule goes directly to the point of this blog.<br /><br />It is not about whether we have a liberal democrat or conservative republican as president. It is more important to be sure that said president does not a laydown congress controlled by the same party. <br /><br />It is for this very reason that I will likely vote for Barack Obama's reelection despite being more closely fiscally aligned to the policies of a Mitt Romney. <br /><br />The worst of all worlds is having either party with control of the White House and both legislative branches. I will always vote against that circumstance and suggest you do the same.Dividisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17028140223133400783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-64099597019775236072012-03-02T09:05:11.315-08:002012-03-02T09:05:11.315-08:00"...big deficit liberal policies along the li...<i>"...big deficit liberal policies along the lines of the trillion dollar Obamacare and Porkulus legislation passed on pure partisan votes"</i><br /><br />Let's not forget that it was a self-labeled conservative that pushed us into a war that may wind up costing us $2.4 billion[1]. Spending lots of money isn't a trait that occurs only one one side of the aisle.<br /><br />[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/2007/10/24/us-iraq-usa-funding-idUSN2450753720071024Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-22972192093440804392012-03-01T09:34:33.938-08:002012-03-01T09:34:33.938-08:00Hi Joshua,
Thanks for stopping by and for the com...Hi Joshua, <br />Thanks for stopping by and for the comment. I was going to leave a courtesy notification on your post, but you beat me to it. <br /><br />Snowe leaving the race certainly helps the Dems, but does not change the crushing structural advantage the Republicans enjoy this cycle in the Senate races. My assessment of the prospects for Senate control <a href="http://www.dividist.com/2012/02/year-of-divided-government-dragons-2012_11.html" rel="nofollow">linked here</a>. <br /><br />The <a href="http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventClassId=19" rel="nofollow">Intrade prediction markets</a> did not move much with the Snowe announcement. I don't really consider Intrade markets to be particularly good at predicting elections many months away, but they are great at giving you a snapshot view of current sentiment and a <i>"If the election was held today"</i> perspective. <br /><br />Intrade currently shows Obama with a 60% chance of being reelected, the GOP with a 63% probability of taking the Senate and a 63% chance of retaining control of the House.<br /><br /><br />My gut now is that the Senate is a coin flip and the House is a lock for the GOP. That means the right vote for those independents who what to continue divided government is a vote to re-elect Obama.Dividisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17028140223133400783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-31984726778004161692012-03-01T04:07:00.418-08:002012-03-01T04:07:00.418-08:00Thanks for the mention, Dividist. My hopes for div...Thanks for the mention, Dividist. My hopes for divided government seem to have faded a bit since I wrote that post, as Obama is still looking good for the Presidency but the experts say Snowe's abdication will make it harder for the GOP to retake the Senate. But, hey, what do the experts know? I can still dream.<br /><br />Though it's kind of a shame that we have root for divided government by way of different parties sharing control instead of the branches of government naturally limiting themselves no matter who is in charge, but I guess I'll take what I can get.joshuahttp://www.postlibertarian.comnoreply@blogger.com