tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post1237474529579138622..comments2023-10-26T01:59:40.483-07:00Comments on The Dividist Papers: Updating "10 in 10" on 10-10-10 at 10:10 PMmwhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-5049633145223840062010-10-14T07:57:50.091-07:002010-10-14T07:57:50.091-07:00Yeah, and after the run-up it's had I'm re...Yeah, and after the run-up it's had I'm ready to sell out half when it hits $1400 or falls back to $1300. Even after the taxes that'll leave me with half my position essentially for free, and with cash in pocket. I didn't acquire it via stocks. I bought Krugerrands and US coins. It is looking overbought right now, even with inflation jumping and the dollar slumping. Most of that exoectation is already built into the current price.<br /><br />Not really prescience though. Buying hard commodities when they hit historic inflation-adjusted lows and stay there for a bit is usually at worst a store-of-value insurance policy. On the same principle I also bought several closed stripper wells back in the late 90's, when oil was under $20/bbl and the 5-10 bbl/day production from them wouldn't pay the re-opening and op overhead. They were damn near giving them away. Got chicken and sold those out when oil first cleared $50/bbl, which in hindsight was a bit too soon, but it was still a big win. Waiting to grab the peak is generally a fool's game anyway -- when they tank they usually tank fast, and people hold on hoping for a quick reversal that doesn't show.<br /><br />If the GOP takes 49 you won't get a Nelson switch. At 50, <i>maybe</i> they'll make it worth his while to get past the Biden tie-breaker, or <i>maybe</i> he'll switch to avoid running as a Dem in '12. Leiberman won't join the GOP, but he's already an Indie so he can leverage his votes both ways if he chooses. He'll follow his constituents there. MHO, anyway. <br /><br />If I lived where you do I'd be hoping Boxer chokes too. Don't discount the fraud possibilities. Any race that's close will bring out the AlFrankensteinian party hacks, lawyers, and mysteriously found ballots in Dem precincts. They know they're gonna take a licking, but if the results are tight enough they'll go for the contests in a heartbeat, and in some of those races it's a safe call that they've already laid the groundwork.Tullyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03842067230152580405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-22751125849018847942010-10-13T23:40:19.292-07:002010-10-13T23:40:19.292-07:00Tully,
Just to be clear, I am not predicting that ...Tully,<br />Just to be clear, I am not predicting that the Reps will gain a clear majority on Nov 2. As outlined in my prior post, I expect them to win 8 or 9 seats on Nov 2 to put them at 49 or 50, then flip Lieberman and/or Nelson before the 112th Congress is sworn in. And I am still hopeful of Scott Brown-like miracle shift in the last week to surprise the pundits and dump Boxer.<br /><br />That was a prescient gold buy. I'm making some money in a couple of gold mine stocks, but getting nervous about the rapid run-up. When <a href="http://www.nma.tv/2010/10/13/gold_mania_sweeps_markets/" rel="nofollow">Taiwan Animation News picks up on gold fever</a>, you've got to be worried about a near term top.mwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11181222537529037359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26542777.post-25736010925226130322010-10-13T18:46:59.036-07:002010-10-13T18:46:59.036-07:00I wouldn't make bets on GOP control of the Sen...I wouldn't make bets on GOP control of the Senate this go-round. Not now that the clown lady won the Delaware slot. 49 wouldn't surprise me in the least, I actually expect it. 50 would, and 51? Don't think so, not after reviewing the races. Sorry about y'all probably having to live with Boxer for another six years. And if the Kirk race is close, we can expect extreme AlFrankenism in Illinois, what with the dead rising from their graves to vote absentee and all. Hey, cheer up! Maybe Murray will lose in WA. <br /><br />The GOP will ROCK the #$@%ing House, though. Big time. The question there isn't will they take the majority, the question is how BIG a blowout it will be. I locked the "over" at 34 several weeks ago, and it's one of the safest bets I've made since I bought gold at $300 the Xmas after 9/11.Tullyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03842067230152580405noreply@blogger.com