Sunday, August 19, 2007

DWSUWF predicts the future - Hastert goes home.

UPDATED: 24-Aug-07
Among a rash of Republican resignations, Denny Hastert formally announced yesterday that he will not be seeking re-election to the House of Representatives in 2008. Moreover, he is not even willing to say whether he will complete his term according to the LA Times: "...he wouldn't rule out leaving early." It is fair to assume that he will leave early. Whether he does or not, this announcement is good enough for me.

I am calling this yet another correct DWSUWF prediction, and yes I do keep score. Specifically this prediction:
"Denny Hastert will resign in disgrace before his two year term is completed."
Which was a repeat of an earlier prediction in an October post here.

Now some may argue, in the glow of fawning home state news coverage, that he is not actually resigning in disgrace, and may yet complete his term. Details. Get outside of Hastert's earmark sphere of influence, and a clearer story comes into focus. Let us not forget, that it is exactly because Denny Hastert was Speaker of the House, that the Rove "fear and loathing" campaign against Nancy Pelosi failed to have any impact on the electorate in 2006. The Hastert legacy is out-of-control earmarks, corrupt land deals, the Foley cover-up, and the continuing Abramoff investigations.

As Denny Hastert rides off into the sunset, let us look back at an excerpt from a post in October, 2006 where we explored the emerging legacy of Denny Hastert's tenure in the context of Honest vs. Dishonest Graft:
Denny Hastert purchased land near Plano, Illinois in 2002 and 2004 for $2.5 million. In 2005 he earmarked $207 million dollars of your tax dollars to build a highway and interchange that passed within a few miles of his property. Four months after GWB signed the bill into law containing that earmark, Denny Hastert sold his land for almost $5 million dollars.

This is a perfect example of what George Washington Plunkitt (a corrupt turn of the century Tammany Hall politician) called "dishonest graft". Wikipedia helps clarify Plunkitt's distinction between "honest graft" and "dishonest graft":
"Most of his [Plunkitt's] money was made through purchasing land, through his connections, he knew would be needed for public projects. He would buy such parcels, then resell them at an inflated price. This was "Honest Graft". "Dishonest Graft" according to Plunkitt, would be buying land and then using influence to have a project built on it."
The point, is that the 2006 Speaker of the House of the United States of America, the man who was third in line for succession to the presidency of the United States, engaged in activity that would not meet the moral standards of one of the most corrupt 1906 political participants of the most corrupt political organization in the history of the United States.
That was all I really needed to say in that post, but I said it all again in this video mash-up, for the more video inclined.





This is why I cannot get very sentimental about Hastert's resignation. His legacy is one of corruption, putting party before principle, the loss of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, and abandoning conservative principles. Denny Hastert has left the building, and he leaves it disgraced.

Lets update my track record on political predictions by reviewing the current status on all past predictions made on this blog:

Prediction Scorecard:
  1. Democrats would take majority control of the House of Representatives in 2006 (HIT)
  2. Democrats/Republicans would split the Senate 50/50 in 2006 (HIT - depending on how you count Lieberman)
  3. Rumsfeld was politically radioactive and would be fired or resign (HIT).
  4. It would happen within two weeks (MISS - It took two months).
  5. Republicans could not maintain a majority with Rumsfeld as a convenient target during the 2006 election (HIT)
  6. Rumsfeld will receive the Medal of Freedom (MISS).
  7. He would be replaced by John McCain (MISS).
  8. He would be replaced by an "unassailable warrior" (HIT).
  9. Bush would rhetorically claim a "fresh start when replacing Rumsfeld. (HIT - actual quote was "fresh eyes").
  10. Republican efforts to mobilize their base and swing the election by demonizing Nancy Pelosi would be ineffective due to the ethically challenged Republican alternative - Denny Hastert (HIT)
  11. Denny Hastert will resign in disgrace before his two year term is completed. (HIT)

By my calculation, DWSUWF is batting .720 Not bad. So what does the future hold?

Outstanding predictions:
  • Democrats will retain majorities in the House and Senate in 2008.
  • Democrats will extend their majority in the Senate in 2008 but still be short of a 60/40 plurality.
  • Hagel would win the general election if he could win the the Republican nomination (We may never know).
  • Moqtada al-Sadr will be the leader of Iraq within the next four years if he is not killed first (more on this in a subsequent post).
My track record indicates that three of these four predictions will prove to be correct. In the spirit of the polarized partisan fairness that is the hallmark of this blog, Let us (as another retiring Republican Karl Rove admonished us to do on the Sunday talk-fest this morning) look forward and not look back. While Wonkette sums up Hastert's legacy succinctly saying "He was corrupt and kinda dumb..." , the Democrats have the majority in Congress now. They probably do not have enough time to screw up in the next 18 months on the scale that the Republicans did over the last six years - not impossible, but unlikely. So the Democrats will hold their majorities in 2008.

But the Democratic Congress has already shown that they have not learned the lessons of the Republican mistakes. The much heralded ethics bill was emasculated and the corrupting influence of earmarks continue unabated. Jack Murtha, may not be as "dumb" as Hastert, but he is just as corrupt. One more new prediction - there is a Hastert-esque Jack Murtha corruption post in DWSUWF's future.

UPDATE: 24-Aug-07

Going... Going... Going...

Divided and Balanced.™ Now that is fair.

2 comments:

fairlane said...

First, thank you for the link. That was most gracious of you, and I have passed on your "meme" "virus" you know.

Second, if I buy four lottery tickets can you predict the winning number on three of them? I would be more than willing to share.

I'm not so sure about the Dems keeping Congress. The wingnuts are mighty tasty when it comes to getting their constituency riled.

Oh, I told everyone I passed the "Pissy" to that you'd link to them if they asked. I hope that's cool.

If not, I'll say it was a typo.

mw said...

Ford,
Yes it is true, but I only use my precognition powers for good, so I cannot help you with your lottery tickets.

Trust me on the 2008 elections. The Dems cannot lose either house, due to a huge structural advantage which I explain here. I just hope the Republicans can hold on to 41+ seats in the Senate. 2010 is a different story.

You are very welcome regarding the link. However, you should know that I pretty much link to anyone who links to me, comments here, or acknowledges my existence in any way. The only exception are complete flaming asshats, which I try to limit to less than a third of my outgoing links.