Scary!
It is Halloween, only days away from the election, and I cannot think of anything scarier than One Party Rule with a Democratic Party government. Well, except for One Party Rule under the Republican Party banner. But we killed that monster in 2006. Now a new One Party Rule monster is looming over the horizon. I feel like a resident of Tokyo. We no sooner finish killing off Godzilla, and here comes Rodan two years later. Sheesh. We're still cleaning the rubble out of the street from the last monster.I see that John McCain and the GOP finally started to really push the divided government argument this week. That is really great guys, but a little late don't you think? After all, I have only been telling you that this argument was your only shot for... oh... about... TWO F*****G YEARS!!!
The potential for this argument was obvious the week after the midterms. I know because I said so. Right here. Then I explained why the GOP need to nominate someone who would appeal to moderates and libertarians - like Hagel. Last year I even changed party affiliation to try and effect change from the inside the GOP. Finally, early this year, I diagnosed the GOP as terminal:
"We are now on board a hell-bound train rocketing down the rails toward single party Democratic Government, with either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama controlling the levers of power for the expanded unitary executive designed by Dick Cheney, complemented by increased Democratic majorities in both houses of the legislature and a real possibly of a 60 vote filibuster-proof plurality in the Senate. God help us."
However, if there is any hope for McCain between now and Tuesday, it is to be found in the traction clearly evident for the Divided Government argument. As we can see in BlogPulse...
... we are in the midst of a big spike of "divided government" activity in the blogosphere, which you might infer (correctly) is being driven by a lot ink spilled in the mainstream media. FWIW, the percentage of total blog posts mentioning divided government now is very close to the percentage in 2006 on the eve of the election that restored divided government. And there are a lot more blogs now than there were in 2006. Ok, I am grasping at straws. Hope springs eternal.
Another indicator of the potency of the argument, is that the
Carnival
Main Stream Media
Princeton professor Julian Zelizer writing for the Washington Independent kicks us off by propping up and knocking down a straw man in "One Party Government does not equal Extreme":
"Republicans have unveiled their closing argument. Desperate to prevent a huge Democratic landslide, Republicans warn that one-party government under Democrats would surely mean liberal extremism...The argument is based on a misreading of American history. For, during periods of one-party government, when Democrats controlled both the White House and the Congress, history demonstrates that they have not shifted radically toward a leftward agenda."
John Judis, blogging at The New Republic, makes a peculiar argument in "Down With Divided Government":
"...let’s look at the more disastrous moments in the history of American administrations - where charges of impeachment were brought, and recriminations paralyzed the government. That would have to include the administrations of Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Bill Clinton - all instances of divided government... So if you look at America’s moments of glory and ignominy, the conclusion is inescapable: divided government is a curse, not a blessing, and should be avoided, if at all possible."
Jacob Levy also rebuts the Judis argument at TNR.
Andrew Romano from Newsweek makes a repeat appearance in the carnival, following up his interview with Morris Fiorino with "Will America Vote Against a 'Dangerous Threesome'? ":
"McCain's basic premise is sound. Right now, Democrats narrowly control both chambers of Congress, and experts estimate that they'll pick up between 23 and 28 seats in the House and between seven and nine seats in the Senate. So if Obama wins, it's all donkeys all the time. That said, I'm not sure how well McCain's "divided government" argument will work from a political perspective. Why? Because it has to accomplish several difficult tasks at once..."
In the category of laughable partisan nonsense, Michelle Malkin notes that Chuck Schumer was "Against One Party Rule Before He Was For it":
Charles Schumer - FOX News Sunday, 4/10/05
“...you can’t just have one-party rule here.” “The point is that there have to be checks and balances here."
Charles Schumer - ABC News Wednesday, 10/29/08
“Our view is very simple, and that is Republican senators, Republican incumbents aren’t for checks and balances. They’re for blocking change..."
The Polls
Gallup suggests that McCain's closing argument may be having an effect:
"...McCain has tried to remind voters that electing Obama as president to go along with a Democratically-controlled Congress would give the Democratic Party control of the federal government. That argument appears to resonate, as voters appear reluctant to want to give one party full control of the government regardless of who is elected president."
"...the Pennsylvania electorate, one in which McCain trails Obama by 9 percentage points, supports the principle of a divided federal government. A majority of likely voters in the Commonwealth—51 percent—believe control of the presidency and Congress should be split between the parties, while just 18 percent believe one party should control both branches. Twenty-eight percent say it does not matter whether or not government is divided."
In this Keith Obamaman interview, Chris Cilliza of the Washington Post describes an older poll finding Americans did not care about divided government, in direct contradiction to the two more recent polls above. Movement as we approach election day?
Hope floats.
Bloggers and New Media
Yid With Lid quotes Charles Krauthammer and sums it up perfectly in "Obama + Pelosi + Reid + Frank =ECONOMIC DANGER FOR AMERICA":
"America's founding fathers built a government based on checks and balances. The Idea is to prevent this country from over-reacting to temporary swings in public opinion or worse to fall in line behind one demagogue. If Senator Obama wins the presidential election we are in danger of eliminating most of the checks and balances that have protected this country from the whims of one political leader. Based on polls we may have a Democratic President and a filibuster-proof Senate and a majority in the House. This democratic party "perfect storm" is a danger to the future of this country."
John at 2008Central has some more to say on divided government. In a prior post, he invented a new definition for Divided Government because he found the actual definition used by economists, historians and political scientists to be inconvenient. Since then he has also parroted John Justis' flawed reasoning (see above), and made an argument based on judicial appointments quoting Jeffrey Rosen in "The Judicial Question":
"A simplistic look at divided government always only looks at President and Congress. In all likelihood, the economy will continue to have problems in the next few years, and at some point, Republicans will be able to take advantage of that, at least in the House and possibly Senate elections. But what can’t be undone are Supreme Court appointments."
Len Burman at The Tax Policy Center questions EconomistMom's assertion of the historical basis showing fiscal irresponsibility under One Party Rule, and asks "Does Divided Government Guarantee Fiscal Responsibility?":
"The effect of divided government thus depends on whether McCain's promise of bipartisanship trumps his promise to wield a ruthless veto pen—something that's impossible to predict a priori."
Whatever.
Kbliss at WhatShouldBe.com links David Frum and suggests "With Divided Government Unlikely, Let’s Minimize The Loss":
"It is time that the focus of proponents of divided government and centrists in general be turned from the Presidential race, which is lost (McCain is not going to win), to the Congress and particularly the Senate. While a significant Democrat victory in the Senate and the House is assured as well, efforts can be made to limit the scale of the Republican defeat. Efforts need to be made to minimize Republican losses, particularly but not exclusively of those in the rational middle... Following the principles of triage, the place to logically focus is with Senate Republicans, where saving a few Republican Senators will yield more bang for the buck. A 60 vote Democrat majority in the Senate would not be healthy for the country..."
Jacob Sollum at Reason is voting for Bob Barr, but takes a long way around to come to the right conclusion about choosing between the lesser of two evils in "You Choose, You Lose":
"The crucial question is which matters more: a president's theory of executive power or the political environment he faces. If the former, Obama is the less risky choice. If the latter, McCain is, since he would face a less compliant Congress. In that case, the Republicans' sorry performance during their six years in charge of the executive and legislative branches, by highlighting the virtues of divided government, may be the best argument for their nominee."
"I placed my vote for what could be called a straight divided government ticket in that I voted Libertarian for president, Republican for Senate, and Democratic at the state level."- Dyre42
"In any era, Barack Obama would be an impressive advocate of all the wrong ideas. In an era in which the US faces $54 trillion in unfunded obligations, as well as an impending demographic crisis for which the bill is imminent, his agenda is simply insane. And for conservatives to support that agenda in their Presidential candidate at a time when the Congress is virtually certain to feature a massive Democratic majority beggars belief. Respect for the concept of divided government alone ought to rule Obama out from any conservative’s perspective." - Rojas
Miscellany
Traditionally, we conclude this Carnival by including one "off-topic" submission, as a grudging acknowledgment and proxy for the many off-topic submissions received. Off-topic in this context meaning - no mentions of "divided government" or gridlock. For this edition - f*ck it.
And with that we conclude this edition. Thanks for stopping by, and thanks for all of the submissions (on-topic or not). we will once again attempt to increase our CODGOV posting frequency between now and the election. Look for the next edition of The Carnival of Divided Government XXIX - Special Thanksgiving Edition sometime around - um Thanksgivng. Submit your blog article at carnival of divided government using our carnival submission form.
Carnivalingus
Some recent carnivals and compilations of note:
- Jill presents the "Carnival of Ohio Politics #140 posted at COOP.
- Billspaced presents "Rants -- Oct 23, 2008" posted at Rants n' Reviews.
Technorati tags: divided government, CODGOV,blog carnival, 2008 Election, John McCain, Barack Obama
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