Monday, February 17, 2020

Stack Ranking the 2020 Presidential Candidates 2.0
The Post-NH, Pre-NV, Presidents Day Edition

Klobuchar Harris 2020

President's Day is a good day to reflect on who might be our next President. During the formative years of this blog, the Dividist frequently maintained and updated candidate stack rank preferences over the course of a presidential campaign cycle (a couple of examples here and here from February, 2007 and February, 2008). Interestingly, some of the presidential hopefuls from those lists over a dozen years ago remain relevant in the campaign today, including Joe Biden, Mike Bloomberg, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Hillary Clinton.

As noted, the Dividist stack ranking is a preference not a prediction. The list, then and now, represent the top candidates the Dividist would like to see as President, stack ranked in order of preference, within an additional constraint of supporting a divided government outcome.

However, as a necessary element of our divided government voting heuristic, we do need to make predictions. So far, we've not seen a reason to diverge from our 2018 prognostications about the likely 2020 election outcome for our tripartite government. In 2020 we expect the House to be a lock for the Democrats, with the GOP losing 2 or 3 seats but retaining the Senate majority, and the government continues happily divided regardless of which party wins the Presidency.

So we've got a free hand in expressing our preference for the Presidency in 2020. Which is a relief, since the Dividist is, and has been, #NeverTrump since he announced in 2015.

In recent years, @Dividist found Twitter to be an easier and more timely social media venue for sorting prospective presidential wannabes. We floated our first Stack Rank of the 2020 Campaign after the first Democratic debates last June which, the reader may recall, was spread over two nights to accommodate the cavalry charge of candidates. Twenty candidates are just too many, so we went with a 50% Thanos Snap Cut right off the bat.

Stack Ranking the Democratic Candidates for PresidentThanos Snap after the first Democratic Debates
 Of the 20 in that first debate series, 3 of my Top 10 are still in the race (Klobuchar, Biden, Buttigieg), as well as 3 off of my bottom 10 "NEVER" list (#NEVERGabbard, #NEVERWarren, #NEVERBernie).

With another debate, Nevada Caucus, and South Carolina Primary in the offing, it's a good time to update the Stack Rank. Tulsi won't be in the debate (TBH, we don't care and don't understand why she's still in the race). Mike Bloomberg apparently will be in the debate for the first time and appears to be making an impact in the national polls. Unfortunately, his support also appears to be mostly coming out of Joe Biden's numbers.

February 16 2020 Democratic Polling Averages

The good news is that our top two preferred Democratic candidates - Amy Klobuchar and Joe Biden - remain in contention and are still the top two. Without further ado...

Dividist 2020 Presidential Candidate
Stack Ranking 2.0
  1.  Bill Weld (R)
  2.  Amy Klobuchar (D)
  3.  Joe Biden (D)
  4.  Pete Buttigieg (D)
  5.  Mike Bloomberg (D)
  6.  Justin Amash (I)
  7.  #NeverGabbard (D)
  8.  #NeverSanders (D)
  9.  #NeverWarren (D)
  10.  #NeverRottenHeadOfCabbage (I)

    9,583. #NeverTrump (R)

We added Bill Weld's quixotic campaign as we'd love to see him make an impact on the GOP side. However, the RNC is drinking Trump cult of personality kool-aid and not permitting primaries in many States, so it's just wishful thinking. Similarly with Justin Amash. If the nominee is not among the top five but one from the #NEVER list, we'll still need to vote. It might as well be Justin Amash running on a Libertarian Ticket.

Although Klobuchar was and is my favorite Democratic candidate, I've been mostly stanning for Biden on twitter because Joe's polls were solid and Amy couldn't seem to get out of the noise level. After New Hampshire, Joe's polls are not solid and Amy is breaking out of the noise level. The next few weeks will be critical, but if Joe falters, I've got my dream ticket lined up:

Alternatively, if Joe gets back on track, either Amy or Kamala would make a great VP pick. Any combination of these three on the ticket will kick Trump's ass in November. Fingers crossed.

Crap. I forgot Tom Steyer. Easy to do despite the saturation TV advertising here in California. He was another late entry in Candidate Billionaire Bingo and was not included in Stack Rank 1.0.  I suppose I would put him on the bubble between the ranked and NEVERs. Would I vote for him over Donald Trump if he were to secure the nomination? Yeah. I guess.

I did include Steyer in my tongue-in-cheek 2017 post: "Billionaires For President" where I ranked 10 celebrities and billionaires presidential prospects...

Billionaires For President 2020

Subsequently updated in 2019 for the four Billionaires who actually threw their hats in the ring...

Updated Billionaires For President 2020

But with Steyer remaining at an embarrassing sub 400,000 Twitter followers and a humiliating net worth below $2 Billion, he has yet to break out of the "Pathetic Loser" quadrant. Sad. 

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