Stack Ranking the 2020 Presidential Candidates 2.0 The Post-NH, Pre-NV, Presidents Day Edition

President's Day is a good day to reflect on who might be our next President. During the formative years of this blog, the Dividist frequently maintained and updated candidate stack rank preferences over the course of a presidential campaign cycle (a couple of examples here and here from February, 2007 and February, 2008). Interestingly, some of the presidential hopefuls from those lists over a dozen years ago remain relevant in the campaign today, including Joe Biden, Mike Bloomberg, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Hillary Clinton.

As noted, the Dividist stack ranking is a preference not a prediction. The list, then and now, represent the top candidates the Dividist would like to see as President, stack ranked in order of preference, within an additional constraint of supporting a divided government outcome.

Ranking #Billionaires4President in 2020 - UPDATED 11/09/19

UPDATE: 09-November-2019

 Lyndon Johnson famously said "Whenever most Senators look in a mirror, they see a president.” The sentiment has been quoted, plagiarized and paraphrased by politicians and political pundits ever since.  Both Kennedy and Johnson were Senators before they were elected President and Vice President in 1962. While many Senators have run for president since Johnson served, none fulfilled that ambition until the election of Barack Obama in 2008.

In the wake of the election of Donald Trump, it's time to update that maxim:

"Whenever most billionaires look in a mirror, they see a president." 

And why not? After all, Donald Trump did it. How does a Mark Cuban look in the mirror and not think "If Trump did it, I can do it." Wealthy celebrities have expressed this sentiment directly. Consider Oprah Winfrey on Bloomberg:

“I never considered the question even a possibility,” Winfrey said about her pre-Trump thinking. “I though, ‘Oh gee, I don’t have the experience, I don’t know enough.’ But now I’m thinking, ‘Oh. Oh.'”

Or consider Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson at Vanity Fair:

“I wouldn't rule it out,” Johnson, 44, told Vanity Fair with a big smile ...“It would be a great opportunity to help people, so it’s possible. This past election shows that anything can happen.”

I'll say it again. Why not? It is worth noting that presidential campaign strategists don’t have a lot of imagination. They mostly fight the last war. Whatever worked in the last election becomes the template for what to do in the next election – only bigger and better. And what worked in the last election is this: A rich, blustering, boorish, but successful huckster/entertainer with absolutely no political experience and limited understanding of governing, foreign policy, or the constitutional framework of the United States was elected President of the United States. That happened. And when that happened the pool of future President wannabes got exponentially bigger.

This is not an original thought. Across social and mainstream media you can find many lists touting billionaires and celebrities who look in the mirror and see the next President of the United States. Examples include CNBC, People Magazine, INC, Observer, and Newsweek. Some will indeed run. In the brave new world of the Trump era, how do we separate the contenders from the pretenders?

Hypothetically speaking - "Americans Elect" could disenfranchise New York State (or any other state) in the 2012 presidential election.

Americans Elect (AE) is an organization that intends to qualify for the 2012 presidential ballot in all 50 states, then field a presidential slate through an open nomination process on the internet.

The Dividist took note of the organization when they received favorable coverage after "de-cloaking" a few weeks ago. Realistically, we can expect "Americans Elect" to have as much impact on the 2012 election as their predecessor organization "Unity08" had on the 2008 election. Which is to say - none. They can probably be safely ignored until such time as they show some real traction.

Still, this is an organization that proposes to dramatically change the way we select our President and they appear to have the financial support and the legal wherewithal to succeed with their ballot initiative. As such, it is prudent to take a deep dive into Americans Elect representations and bylaws, ask questions, and look for unintended consequences. Some are already working this beat.

Jim Cook of Irregular Times is skeptical and has been frustrated getting his questions answered. Sol Kleinsmith of Rise of The Center is more favorably inclined, has been promised an interview, and is soliciting his readers for questions to ask the organization. It should be an interesting interview.

Out of the subsequent discussion at RoTC an interesting artifact of the America's Elect proposed process for nominating and electing our president emerged. The Dividist considers the scenario intriguing enough that it deserves a post of it's own.

Here is the scenario. Let's say American's Elect has successfully obtained ballot status and fielded a credible presidential candidate in 2012. They lose the election but win a plurality in one or more states and consequently neither the Republican or Democratic candidate have a majority of electoral votes. This is a plausible scenario (unlike actually winning the presidency for an AE candidate – which has a zero possibility). While there is no history of third party candidates winning the presidency, they have on occasion won the electoral votes for one or more states. One could easily envision an AE candidate with a strong geographic appeal winning a plurality in a state and secure their electoral votes as a favorite son. In those circumstances AE would broker the decision between the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates for the entire country.

Americans Elect anticipated this scenario in their bylaws:

9.4.2. Coalition Agreement.

The Americans Elect ticket receives fewer popular votes nationally than the ticket of at least one of the major political parties and the Americans Elect Delegates have convened in convention after the popular vote but before the Electoral College vote and endorsed a candidate of either major political party on such terms and conditions as may be reflected in the vote of endorsement, in which case the person serving as Elector shall vote solely in the affirmative for the endorsed candidate and for no other candidate.

This says Americans Elect intends to reconvene an on-line convention and through a vote of their delegates (theoretically any registered voter who opts-in - The Dividist being one) decide whether the Republican or Democratic candidate will be our president. Specific details of how this AE re-convention would take place are sparse, but lets just take AE's representations at face value and look at this through the prism of a hypothetical scenario:

It is November 7, 2012. A plurality of the people of New York state have voted to put their confidence in AE candidate Michael Bloomberg. In a close election, neither Democratic candidate Barack Obama or Republican candidate Mitt Romney have secured a majority of electoral votes. New York's 31 electoral votes will now determine who will be president.

All of the registered voters of New York are not AE delegates. They voted in a general election for a candidate – Michael Bloomberg. Yet by AE bylaws, Michael Bloomberg is now sidelined and will not decide how to cast the New York electoral votes on behalf of the people of New York. Instead, Americans Elect delegates will decide whether Obama or Romney receive New York's 31 electoral votes and the presidency. As a practical matter, the people of the state of New York will be completely disenfranchised in the 2012 electoral college vote. How do you think they will feel about Texans, Floridians and Californians deciding whether their 31 electoral votes will be cast to make either Obama or Romney president? If clearly understood, would any New York voter to take that risk?

These are rhetorical questions. The answer is obvious.

The Dividist thinks that in their haste to put together bylaws for their ballot initiative, AE did not think through the political ramifications of this provision. Assuming they get on all 50 state ballots and come up with a credible candidate, they can easily be undone by this provision alone. It is just too easy to run against. If an AE candidate shows any strength in any state, the consequences of an AE win in that state will be shouted from the rooftops by competing campaigns, bloggers, pundits, partisan of both parties, and the mainstream media. The message is simple and easy to communicate: The state will be disenfranchised in the Electoral College if the AE candidate wins that state.

From a tactical political campaign perspective, this is the equivalent of leading with your chin in a boxing match. The Dividist suspects that AE has a glass jaw and it would not take much of an uppercut to put them on the canvas. One has to believe that once Americans Elect realizes this problem, they will change these bylaws if they can.

If nothing else, this is a cautionary tale on the importance of transparency and the need for a deep dive when vetting those advocating new ways to elect our president. If the top gun political public relations professionals that run AE missed something like this, you've got to wonder what else they missed. The Devil is in details. The details need to be out in the open where we can look for the bugger.

Divided and Balanced.™
Now that is fair.

They're B-a-a-a-a-ck! Unity08Draft Bloomberg Americans Electrises from the grave.

A "new" national organization focused on the 2012 presidential election uncloaked their semi-stealth operation over the weekend. After getting special access over the last few months, columnists Tom Friedman and John Avlon were released from their press embargo and obligingly wrote fawning reviews. Others were a bit more circumspect.

Americans Elect is a 501(c)4 corporation. This means they are not required to disclose donors. The reader may be more familiar with this particular corporate classification within the context of the Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission Supreme Court decision. Citizens United was a 501(c)4 corporation.

Taken at face value, the objectives of the organization are novel, ambitious and exciting. They intend to qualify for the 2012 Presidential Ballot in all 50 states, then field a presidential slate that is nominated through an open process on the internet by means of a virtual on-line convention.

Getting on the ballot in fifty states for any third party is a Herculean task. Or Sisyphean. Or both. Given the legislative roadblocks and partisan landmines used by the the two party duopoly to ambush third party electoral efforts, it is easy to rationalize the need for well-heeled donors to kick start the effort. As it turns out, Americans Elect secured some well heeled New York donors to kick start the effort. We don't know who they all are because, you know, Americans Elect is 501(c)4 corporation and they are not telling us.

Taken at face value and considered in a vacuum, while looking at them sideways and squinting slightly, one could get excited about this new high-concept high-tech initiative to reinvent our political process. Problem being, this is really not a new organization, and we have some recent history to consider, and considering that recent history, we learn we cannot take what they say at face value.

Americans Elect is Unity08, or more precisely - they would have been Unity12 until they got the shiny new name. Unity08 started at about the same time as I started this blog. I subsequently burned a few posts chronicling the Unity08 journey through the '06 midterms and the run up to the 2008 presidential election. In early 2008, well before a promised internet convention to nominate a "unity ticket" for the presidential election, Unity08 suddenly went up in flames and shuttered their site. Miraculously, only days later, the DraftBloomberg.com site emerged phoenix-like from the ashes, using the same address, infrastructure, a domain purchased a year earlier by Unity08, and staffed by many of the same people. This led some to speculate that the entire enterprise was nothing more than a Bloomberg stalking horse from the beginning. Cynics. Anyway, after Unityo8's rather unseemly demise (chronicled here and on Donklephant - the comments were particularly entertaining), I considered them dead and buried. Certainly I did not expect to see or hear from them again.

Surprise.

Jim Cook of the Irregular Times has been obsessively stalking this particular white whale since it's inception, and brings us up to date:

• The corporate address reported by Unity08 in the first half of 2009: 1775 Pennsylvania Avenue Suite 1212, Washington DC 20006
• The corporate address reported by the Unity12 Task Force in the second quarter of 2010: 1775 Pennsylvania Avenue Suite 1212, Washington DC 20006
• The corporate address reported by the renamed Americans Elect in the third quarter of 2010: 1775 Pennsylvania Avenue Suite 1212, Washington DC 20006
• Americans Elect is the intentional extension of Unity08, as Americans Elect Chair and Unity08 Director Peter Ackerman made clear when sitting for a deposition in a lawsuit filed by Unity08: "If Unity08 is successful in this litigation, Unity08 has a clear and definite intent to resume its activities -- renamed 'Unity12' -- for the 2012 presidential election. The 'Unity' mission remains as critical today for the 2012 presidential election as it was in 2006 for the 2008 presidential election." The only matter Ackerman didn't anticipate was the name change from 'Unity12' to 'Americans Elect.'

So here we are. Americans Elect, backed by a bucketload of New York mystery money, is hiring petition gatherers, fighting expensive legal battles, and doing the hard grunt work necessary to get on the ballot in all fifty states. All in order to field a presidential candidate - To Be Named Later. So - if you are considering putting your idealistic heart and soul into this brave new political operation, make sure you understand exactly what you are getting into.

Americans Elect is the Mike Bloomberg for President campaign. They probably need to maintain the Americans Elect facade to keep their 501(c)4 status. But if Mike Bloomberg is not heading their ticket in 2012, Americans Elect will go the way of Unity08. Now, if you want to see Bloomberg run as a spoiler in 2013, by all means - sign up. As for me, my views about this organization has not changed since January, 2008:

"Unity08 had over 120,000 members and raised about a million dollars. Not much by presidential campaign standards, not as much as they wanted, but nothing to scoff at. Actually, I liked the idea of a Hagel/Bloomberg Unity08 candidacy, which is why, although dubious, I signed up as a “delegate”. I feel bad for those who put their heart and soul into the effort, as they have been treated rather shabbily by the organization. The whole thing smells so manipulative, so contrived and betrays such cynical contempt for the Unity08 supporters that I would find it difficult to support Bloomberg now."

Look - I like Mike Bloomberg. Under the right circumstances, I might even be tempted to vote for him for President. But not as a 3rd Party candidate in 2012. He could not win but he could garner significant support and, like all "successful" 3rd party presidential candidates, function as a spoiler.

My guess is that in 2012 he would be more likely to pull votes from Obama than the Republican candidate. I would not have minded that in 2008, as we might have avoided the subsequent disastrous 2 years of Democratic One Party Rule. However, I am also not interested in seeing a return to equally disastrous One Party Republican Rule. The GOP will probably take control of the Senate in 2012. Reelecting Obama is the only way to avoid that particular calamity and retain our happily divided government.

Sorry Mike. Let me know when you start hanging around with a better class of 501(c)4 corporations.

Divided and Balanced.™
Now that is fair.

GOP Deathwatch: Tracking the Kübler-Ross Model

The hardest part of being a General Political Practitioner is telling the family the bad news. Dr. DWSUWF diagnosed a dangerous tumor in the Republican Party in the fall of 2006. He did not catch it as early as he would have like, but it was still treatable. In this November 15, 2006 post, Dr. DWSUWF biopsied several right wing sites, with disquieting results. The cancer of the right wing vocal minority compromised the GOP's immunity against stupidity and triggered tissue rejection of a rational and electable candidate like Chuck Hagel. His diagnosis then described Hagel as -

"a bona fide, high integrity conservative, who can retrieve the libertarian swing vote, might even pull in Democrats like Reagan did, and would certainly retain the White House for Republicans. And what is the only objection from the right? He is not a team player with the most unpopular President of the last 70 years. Good strategic thinking. Just the kind of thinking that will elect a Democrat for president in 2008."

In January of 2007 Dr. DWSUWF prescribed an aggressive treatment plan injecting comments throughout the political blogopsphere:

"Republicans better hope that Chuck Hagel runs for president and gets some traction in the party... The Republican right is now so out of step with the majority of Americans over the War in Iraq, that I cannot see how Republicans can nominate an electable candidate. Fortunately this ragged right is becoming marginalized (although over-represented in the blogosphere, is now a small minority of the Republican party and and even smaller minority of American opinion overall."

Unfortunately this meager treatment had no observable effect on the malignancy, as exemplified in the comment threads here, here and here.

The doctor did not give up and offered the treatment again on January 10, 2007:

"Since GWB is hell bent on making sure the Iraq war is even more unpopular and a bigger issue in '08 than it is now, one wonders whether any Republican can be elected President in '08. The spectre of Single Party Democratic control of the federal government hangs over the '08 contest. There is hope. There is one Republican presidential hopeful who has been on the right side of the war since '03. That, in the considered opinion of DWSUWF, makes him the only electable Republican in '08. And that makes Chuck Hagel the DWSUWF Designated Divided Government Presidential Candidate of choice."

And yet again on March 30, 2007:

"Now I finally get it. Chuck Hagel is not a problem for traditional Republicans in the Goldwater/Reagan tradition. Chuck Hagel is not a problem for limited government, freedom-loving, libertarian conservatives. Chuck Hagel is a big problem for the "Loyal Bushie" statists. I would like to think that the "Loyal Bushies" are wildly over-represented in the blogosphere, and there is a much larger plurality of traditional conservative Republicans (both libertarian and evangelical) in the electorate at large. I'd like to think that, but I am not sure. If the traditional conservative Republican base is alive and well, Chuck Hagel may yet lead the party back from the brink of disaster in 2008."

By June, Dr. DWSUWF was desperate to find a cure, even embracing alternative radical treatments like Ron Paul rEVOLution. Stubbornly, Dr. DWSUWF continued to venture into the wild to inject prescriptive commentary on any right of center sites he could find. This comment exchange with rightwingdog on a May 7, 2007 GOP Bloggers post was typical :

Ron Paul is NOT a Republican, he is a Libertarian. That is reason enough to leave him out of the poll. Chuck Hagel is an embarrassment to the Republican Party. He is a RINO pure and simple. He now has stated he is thinking of running as an Independant. I say good riddance. Why not explore the field of names and find out their abilities, their records and what their feelings are on the major issues. You may be surprised at what you find. WA

Posted by: rightwingdog at May 7, 2007 11:54 PM

---

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury ... I submit for your consideration, clear evidence of how the Republicans are going to screw up the 2008 presidential election just like they did the 2006 midterms. EXHIBIT A - The comment directly above this one, spewed all over this fine blog by one "RIGHTWINGDOG." Please consider this comment carefully and understand that this is a fair representation of the on-line right wing vocal minority of the Republican Party. keep in mind that Hagel and Paul are BOTH MORE CONSERVATIVE IN THE REAGAN/GOLDWATER TRADITION THAN ANYONE IN THIS ADMINISTRATION OR ANY DECLARED REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT. You can only conclude, beyond any reasonable doubt, that the Republican party is doomed for a generation.

We rest our case.

Posted by: mw at May 8, 2007 06:14 PM

Alas, it was all to no avail. The patient refused all treatment. It was time to face the truth. The GOP is terminal. The cancer of the vocal minority of the rabid right has paralyzed and enfeebled the GOP body and infected the GOP brain. The party is incapable of articulating a coherent reason for its own existence outside of opposing Hillary Clinton. It is a clear indication of the level of brain damage when GOP loyalists are reduced to blaming Bush Derangement Syndrome for its current state, even asserting that 70% of the U.S. population is infected. The real poison that accelerated the progression of the disease is clear: Bush administration incompetence, Bush/Cheney assertion of expanded Unitary Executive power contrary to the Constitution and American principles, Bush/Cheney contempt for the Rule of Law, and excessive zeal promoting and extending a completely unnecessary war. There is nothing left to be done. All we can do is watch and understand the process as it unfolds.

In her seminal 1969 book On Death and Dying, Elisabeth Kubler-Ross enumerated the five stages of dying. The psychological process that begins when a patient first becomes aware of a terminal illness is also known as the Kübler-Ross model.

The Kübler-Ross five stages of dying as described in Wikipedia

1. Denial: The initial stage: "It can't be happening."
2. Anger: "Why me? It's not fair."
3. Bargaining: "Just let me live to see my children graduate."
4. Depression: "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"
5. Acceptance: "It's going to be OK."

We can use these as milestones to track the progression of the disease through the Republican body politic. Understand that this is a large bloated patient, and the disease will progress at different rates in different parts of the body. Different stages and symptoms can and will present at the same time.

DENIAL

The first stage is always experienced by patients confronted with a terminal diagnosis. It is a universal human reaction. By now, virtually the entire Republican Party is either in or passed through this stage. I exhibited some symptoms myself. Karl Rove was one of the earliest, and most prominent Republicans to publicly present the denial stage symptoms. Only days before 2006 mid-term election, Karl Rove denied the reality obvious to everyone else by claiming secret knowledge predicting a Republican mid-term victory in an NPR interview with Robert Siegel :

"MR. ROVE: Yeah. Look, I'm looking at all these Robert and adding them up. And I add up to a Republican Senate and a Republican House. You may end up with a different math, but you're entitled to your math. I'm entitled to "the" math."

Interestingly, Karl Rove has remained in the Denial Stage to this day. Most recently displaying the symptoms in a Newsweek Opinion piece - Crackup? Not So Fast:

"Calm down. The GOP's demise isn't as imminent as some would have it.. The Reagan coalition has a natural desire to stick together. Fiscal, defense and values conservatives have more in common with each other than with any major element of the Democratic Party's leadership."

Yeah Karl. That's why the Democratic party turnout is crushing Republican party turnout in every primary and every caucus in every state [From the transcript of today's Meet the Press, so far in the primaries "Republicans have gotten 12.9 million votes, Democrats have gotten 19.2 million votes"]. That's why tens of thousands turn out to see either Clinton or Obama at routine campaign stops while, at best, tens of hundreds can be bothered to show up for John McCain. That's why money is pouring into the Democratic coffers and trickling into the Republicans. Karl's extended denial stage is delusional on a scale that is breathtaking to behold.

One more example of GOP denial and then we'll move on to stage two. This example is notable because we are seeing the denial expressed, not by an individual, but by an entire communal Republican blog.

GOP Bloggers is a three year old blog with the tag line "BLOGGING FOR THE MAJORITY" and describes itself as "a online grassroots community with the goal of keeping a Republican majority in Congress, and a Republican President in the White House." To be fair, the tag line in the blog header has been qualified since the 2006 midterms to now say "still BLOGGING FOR THE MAJORITY - we'll be back." Right. The point, is that the GOP lost any claim on the majority 18 months ago and has no prospect of seating a majority in either legislative house before the year 2011. None. But there is that tag-line. I'd call that "Denial" on a grand scale.

In addition, the blog is still promoting a blog sidebar badge that sports the original completely false tagline. It's a lie. If they were blogging for the majority, by any measure, they would be blogging for the Democratic Party. Add stale FAQs and old, inaccurate descriptions, a blog that once hosted multiple posts every day, now showing no new posts in over two weeks, a political blog whose readership of over 50,000 visitors/month as recently as last May, now dropping under 20,000 visitors in the middle of a white hot political primary season, and you have to ask yourself - WTF? GOP Bloggers is in a death spiral. Perhaps, just perhaps, presenting a reality based view of the world would help them pull out before they auger in completely.

ANGER

Anger is the second stage a patient reaches when facing a terminal illness. Anger at God, anger towards doctors, nurses, and families, and in the case of the terminally ill GOP, anger at other Republicans and the presumptive nominee of the party:

Sean Hannity as reported by AJ Strata

"I tuned into Hannity see what had happened today and the guy just went off on what can only be described as a lick-spittle tirade! Apparently Rich Galen wrote a piece today and noted how conservatives tearing down McCain is basically doing the liberal media’s work for them... But something inside Hannity snapped over this and he was in the throws of insanity. He claimed those who question his actions are pompous, arrogant, hanger-ons who are simply trying to angle for jobs in the new administration and have sold their principles for money. "

Laura Ingraham at CPAC:

"Of all the people introducing the three remaining candidates for president, I get to introduce the conservative," Ingraham said [Introducing Romney]. "No one can embody all of Ronald Reagan. It's impossible," said Ingraham. "But we do want, and I think deserve, a candidate who is proud to be a conservative. And who embodies conservative ideals. Is that too much to ask?" Ingraham continued. "I don't think it's enough to say you were a foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution. I think the question is 'what have you been doing for conservatism lately?'

Glenn Beck Radio Transcript:

GLENN: Glad we can all rally around John McCain. It's great. We've got amnesty right around the corner, we have the closure of Guantanamo Bay, we have less information from terrorists, we have a 50-cent a gallon gas tax coming thanks to McCain/Lieberman, more assaults on the First Amendment, possibly the fairness doctrine although I don't know how we could make a case for the fairness doctrine because the media today is going to start to make the case that Rush Limbaugh and everybody on talk radio's completely irrelevant. .. There are no conservatives in Manhattan! They've all been locked away. They have all gone insane. All the conservatives are rocking back and forth some place in Bellevue going, I just don't get it, I just don't understand it. And New Jersey? That's how John McCain won big in New Jersey because of the conservative stance he took?... I don't think I can do this job anymore (crying). I don't. I don't think I can do this job anymore. I really done.
STU: You need to stop letting it bother you.
GLENN: It's not bothering me.
STU: It is bothering you. It's driving you insane.
GLENN: It's not bothering me. I don't know how to make sense of it anymore. This is my job. My job is to try to make sense of stuff. I can't make sense of this. "

Rush Limbaugh Transcript:

"The establishment of the Republican Party has let the Republican Party slide. You've used conservatives when you needed them. You've not led; you've not kept your promises, and now you're promoting a candidate who spent years leading the effort to marginalize the party and demean conservatives in a host of critical issues! You establishment Republicans created this mess. You created this scenario, and your tactics today -- with the name-calling and the demeaning of the base, which is really why you're attacking talk radio. When you attack me, you attack my audience. When you attack Levin and Hannity and Ingraham, you're attacking their audiences. You're attacking the base of the party. It's going to backfire on you, and you'll have yourselves to blame. Until you accept responsibility for what you've done and are doing to this party and take significant steps... Why do you think the Democrats are so happy to see what you guys are doing to the party? And why do we never see this happening to the Democrats themselves? You're going to be responsible for the election if you don't fix this. You establishment Republicans are going to be responsible for the election of a Hillary Clinton or a Barack Obama. It will not be us who are responsible. It will not be talk radio. It will be you. "

The entire floor of the CPAC Convention as analyzed by SnarkSmith:

"A presumptive Republican presidential nominee whose message to the CPAC crowd is, "hey, you could do worse," whose audience needs to be instructed not to boo him, and who gets booed there anyway, is a Republican presidential nominee with a real problem. Movement conservatives' antipathy for John McCain runs so deep that they preferred a guy who wasn't in any meaningful sense a conservative for the first 60 years of his life, to McCain, whose unconservatism consists, apparently, in opposing torture, believing that global warming is real, and that it isn't feasible to round up and deport 12 million Mexican immigrants."

BARGAINING

Bargaining is a brief stage that the terminal patient may pass through after the crying, lamentations and rending of garments phase. The patient may attempt to open negotiations with God, or with Satan, or even with the presumptive nominee himself to stave off the inevitable.

Ann Coulter - Provacteur & Book Promoter:

"McCain uses the boilerplate language of all Republicans in saying he will appoint "strict constructionists." This is supposed to end all discussion of the courts. But if he's picking strict constructionists, he will have to appoint judges who will commit to overturning McCain-Feingold. That could be our litmus test: Will you hold President McCain's signature legislation restricting speech unconstitutional? ... If Hillary is elected president, we'll have a four-year disaster, with Republicans ferociously opposing her, followed by Republicans zooming back into power, as we did in 1980 and 1994, and 2000. (I also predict more Oval Office incidents with female interns.)If McCain is elected president, we'll have a four-year disaster, with the Republicans in Congress co-opted by "our" president, followed by 30 years of Democratic rule.There's your choice, America."

Richard Viguerie - Conservative Saddle Burr:

“Rhetoric isn’t enough,” Viguerie said. “To get the enthusiastic support of conservatives – support he must have, to win – Senator McCain must make his case with deeds, not just words.”Senator McCain must surround himself with conservatives in policy positions, so that conservatives know what sort of people will make key decisions in a McCain Administration. He must have a number of Sister Souljah moments with the Washington establishment liberals who consider him their favorite Republican. He must make conservatives cheer for him every night when they watch the news on TV – not just when they hear him give a good speech.”

Alfred Regnery - WSJ Opinionist:

"It will take a lot more than vague promises, but there are a few things that might bring a good many conservatives into the McCain camp.... - Take a firm no-new-taxes pledge... - Get specific on spending....- Pick a fight with the press... - Pick a conservative running mate early... - Get specific on judicial nominations... Mr. McCain is standing on a precipice. By saying the right things, he could bring a lot of conservatives into his camp. But if he does not, he could lose enough of them to assure a Democratic victory in November."

DEPRESSION

Depression is the fourth stage, and can include mourning, deep melancholy, pessimism, listlessness, and in the case of the death of a political party, refusal to campaign or even vote. Only a few Republicans have reached this stage, but one notable example:

James Dobson - Christofascist:

"I'm deeply disappointed the Republican Party seems poised to select a nominee who did not support a Constitutional amendment to protect the institution of marriage, who voted for embryonic stem cell research to kill nascent human beings, who opposed tax cuts that ended the marriage penalty, and who has little regard for freedom of speech, who organized the Gang of 14 to preserve filibusters, and has a legendary temper and often uses foul and obscene language. I am convinced Sen. McCain is not a conservative, and in fact, has gone out of his way to stick his thumb in the eyes of those who are... I cannot, and I will not vote for Sen. John McCain, as a matter of conscience. But what a sad and melancholy decision this is for me and many other conservatives."

We can expect to see many more clinically depressed Rpublicans in the coming months.

ACCEPTANCE

The final stage. Some never reach it, fighting to the end, or simply wallowing in depression and self-pity. Acceptance in this context simply means to give up and accept that the death of the GOP is inevitable.

At the time of this writing, DWSUWF is the only Republican to pass through all five stages to accept the inevitable (with the possible exception of Andrew Sullivan and Peggy Noonan). Having worked diligently from the inside, lo these long six weeks, as a stalwart fighting to save the GOP, I have reconciled myself that there is nothing more to do. I oppose euthanasia on principle, so all we can do is watch the end using the Kübler-Ross Model to track the final stages.

This is, of course, very bad news for the supporters of Divided Government such as Dr DWSUWF. We are now on board a hell-bound train rocketing down the rails toward single party Democratic Government, with either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama controlling the levers of power for the expanded unitary executive designed by Dick Cheney, complemented by increased Democratic majorities in both houses of the legislature and a real possibly of a 60 vote filibuster-proof plurality in the Senate. God help us. One can only hope that the Democrats will not have time to do as much damage in two years of single party control as it took the Republicans to do in six.

One last straw to grasp, is the possibility of a Hagel/Bloomberg presidential effort (in that order) to replace the dying GOP (more in a future post) . There is no historical precedent for a successful third party presidential run except in the role of spoiler. However, there is a precedent for a new opposition party successfully displacing an established major party that has disemboweled itself (Lincoln's Republicans replacing the Whigs).

But for the current incarnation of the Republican Party itself, it is all over. The only remaining suspense is to see what Alien-like creature of hell will erupt through the GOP chest cavity as it convulses in its final death throes.



UPDATED: 17-Feb-2008 - Fixed typos, some grammatical inconsistencies, and added links.

Linked by Dr. Pat Santy, who does not concur with the diagnosis, but agrees with the prognosis.

Cross-posted at Donklephant.

Divided and Balanced.™ Now that is fair.

Technorati tags: change, 2008 election, John McCain, Ron Paul, Chuck Hagel, Mike Bloomberg , Divided Government , Republican .

Friday Flotsam (Late Edition)

Cleaning up some of the flotsam that washed ashore on the small beach serving as a metaphor for our little island of rationality in the great blogospheric ocean.

ITEM - More Microsoft Windows Productivity
I have posted nothing new in a week. It has, unfortunately, been yet another week of technology trouble. My Dell laptop will not boot, it just displays the wallpaper and freezes. Yes, I can get it to boot in safe mode, and Yes, I've tried restoring from previous set-points, and Yes, I've tried booting the "last good boot" and it still behaves the same. So I am punishing the Dell by ignoring it and working on a turn of the millennium vintage Pentium III Sony Vaio Desktop. I'll try to get a couple of posts out this weekend, and will not touch the Dell again until I get over this impulse to see how closely it will mimic the aerodynamic properties of a Frisbee thrown off our 15th floor balcony.

ITEM - Presidential Candidate Stack Ranking version 3.1
As promised, the DWSUWF Presidential Candidate Stack Ranking has been trimmed to six entries in the sidebar, and probably should be taken down to four. It does not matter whether it's Romney or McCain, Clinton or Obama winning in South Carolina and Nevada. This Stack Rank will remain intact until at least the Florida primary. It has been upgraded to version 3.1 since Richardson has dropped out and Gore moved up since the last ranking. The reality is that spots 5 and 6 are placeholders, as I struggle with including any of the remaining candidates from either party on the list after level 4. I've also dropped the Unity08 designation to the potential Bloomberg run since they went belly up, and have been subsumed by Bloomberg's ambition.

1) Ron Paul (R)
2) Barack Obama (D)
3) Chuck Hagel (R)/Mike Bloomberg (I)
4) Hillary Clinton (D)
5) Fred Thompson (R)
6) Al Gore (D)

A reminder - the DWSUWF stack ranking is a preference not a prediction. This list represents the top ten six candidates DWSUWF would like to see as President, stack ranked in order of preference. Imposed on this list are two constraints: alternating political party affiliation, and a divided government outcome in 2008.

ITEM - Just WTF are we anyway?
DWSUWF notes that some political bloggers have segregated their blogrolls into categories, and said bloggers do not seem to agree in which category DWSUWF belongs. Some think we lean left, some think we lean right. Libertarian blogs tolerate us. Centrist blogs like Donklephant, The Moderate Voice, and PoliGazette generally think DWSUWF is one of them. But Blanca Debree cannot decide whether DWSUWF is in her EVIL-DOER or GOOD-DOER category so she puts us in the Maybe Evil Doer /Maybe Good Doer category. DWSUWF approves.

UPDATED - 20-January-2008 - Updated Links

ITEM - Carnivalingus
Some recent fine collections of high quality blogging punditry:

• Mark Rayner presents The Carnival of Satire hosted at The Skwib.
  
• Charity presents The Carnival of Principled Government at She's Right.
  
• Pat Santy presents the Carnival of the Insanities-January 13 and January 20 Edition hosted at Dr. Sanity.
• Admin (Ok, you tell me what his name is....) presents Missed it by That Much hosted at Bizospere - home of Carnival of the Capitalists.
• Boring presents Economics and Social Policy XLII hosted at The Boring Made Dull.
• Andrew Ian Dodge presents Carnival of the Vanities Mid January hosted at Dodgeblogium.
• I Don't Know presents the Festival of Stocks at Investment Quest
• Serena presents the Carnival of Cities at Mexican Pop Spot.
• TWS presents Carnival of the Libertarians at The Whited Sepulchre
  

ITEM - Carnival Reminder
The next CODGOV edition will be the Carnival of Divided Government Vîcênsimus - Special California Primary Post-Mortem Edition, which we have elected to post on or about Wednesday, Feburary 6. Submit your blog article at carnival of divided government using our carnival submission form. If the words "divided government" or "gridlock" are not in your post, you should probably not submit to this carnival.

Divided and Balanced.™ Now that is fair.

Technorati tags: divided government, blog carnival, divided government, Chuck Hagel,2008 election , John McCain, Ron Paul, Mike Bloomberg, Hillary Clinton, Fred Thompson, Barack Obama.

Announcing: Disunity08

UPDATED: 16-January-2008

We won’t have Unity08 to kick around anymore. Since they won’t need their cool graphics and logos, DWSUWF (being the environmentally sensitive sort) has been rummaging through the detritus to recycle what we can. Unity08 was always more a slick, professional PR and marketing effort as opposed to the the grass roots political movement they pretended to be, so they’ve got some pretty nice stuff. The hot air expelled and greenhouse gas burned in the short life of Unity08 probably raised the temperature of the globe by a degree or two. It is incumbent on us to recycle and make use of what we can from these Unity08 waste products.

The first indication of the impending Unity08 demise was the story by Elizabeth Benjamin writing in the New York Daily News Politics blog, saying that "Unity08 to jump on Bloomberg Bandwagon":

"A source familiar with the Bloomberg for president movement says the bipartisan Unity08 effort is poised to shut down its Web site, reconstitute as a Draft Bloomberg site and launch its own 50-state signature-gathering operation on behalf of the supposedly reluctant would-be independent presidential candidate."

I checked out the site and found, buried deep in a forum comment thread, one mention of the story:
In this thread, a Unity08 member expresses concern about the NY Daily News story. Understandable, since the raison d’etre for Unity08 was to have the members/delegates select and nominate a centrist, non-partisan ticket. The notion that Unity08 might support Bloomberg appeared to skip a few steps, specifically - asking the members if they want to support Mike Bloomberg. Even though the site shutdown was only hours away, for whatever reason, Bob Roth, VP Marketing, Unity08 saw fit to mislead this member by implying the story was false, while actually only “correcting” one aspect of it - the connection to Bloomberg. Ha! Ha! Good one, Bob!

It seems obvious now, that from the beginning Unity08 was indeed a Mike Bloomberg stalking horse, funded and staffed by Bloomberg loyalists. They couldn’t pull off the Bloomberg run within the Unity08 structure, so they closed up shop to make room for the imminent Bloomberg Independent candidacy, redirecting management and money resources to the impending campaign. The Unity08 tombstone is enlightening:

“And, of course, waiting in the wings should the divide persist, is the potential of a serious non-partisan candidacy in the person of the Mayor of New York (and indeed we have lost two of our leaders, Doug Bailey and Jerry Rafshoon, to a committee :forming to draft Mayor Bloomberg should the circumstances seem right)… But we’re not closing our doors. We believe it is important to see our case against the FEC through (both for Unity08 and any similar movement in the future) and be ready to gear up if (when) we win our case and political circumstances warrant later this spring. Unity is in the air right now, and Mayor Bloomberg seems poised to run on his own (and the fact is that two independent candidacies wouldn’t work) if the parties leave the sensible center open - but all this could change in a matter of weeks.”

[UPDATE: 12-January-08 The above is a quote from the Unity08 announcement as it was orginally posted. In the revised version, the mention of Baily and Rafshoon going to the Bloomberg campaign has been excised.]

Unity08 had over 120,000 members and raised over a million dollars. Not as much as they wanted, but nothing to scoff at. Actually, I liked the idea of a Hagel/Bloomberg Unity08 candidacy, which is why, although dubious, I signed up as a “delegate”. I feel bad for those who put their heart and soul into the effort, as they have been treated rather shabbily by the organization. The whole thing smells so manipulative, so contrived and betrays such cynical contempt for the Unity08 supporters that I would find it difficult to support Bloomberg now.

But Unity08 is dead, and let us not speak ill of the dead. Let us instead reflect on the short life of Unity08, with a retrospective of DWSUWF's greatest Unity08 hits.

Unity08 was created with much fanfare and a big publicity splash in June of 2006, in the same timeframe that DWSUWF published our first blog post. We'll admit to a little popularity envy, as Unity08 was embraced by pundits, bloggers and columnists at a time the infant DWSUWF readership was leveling out in the high single digits.

Our first post focused on Unity08 was October 16, 2006, where we announced the formation of "Disunity '06", comparing and contrasting the differences in our approach to the 2006 midterm elections and the problem of a dangerous single party Republican government that was spinning wildly out of control:

"Now in my simpleminded view, the solution here is not to find ways to hold a civil discourse with the party in power to politely register dissatisfaction with the path they have taken. My view is that very first step in solving these problems, is to rip some the power away from the single party on watch when the problems were created, and give that power to the opposition party. This is a fairly simple solution that can be implemented on November 7 of this year... If the Democrats achieve a majority in both the House and Senate in 2006, vote for a Republican president in 2008. If the Republicans maintain a majority in the House and Senate in 2006, vote for a Democratic President in 2008... Disunity06 - No contributions. No infrastructure. No political party. No delegates. No convention. No leaders. No candidates. Just common sense, and Just Vote Divided."

By November 3, 2006 - just a week before the midterms, it became clear that "Disunity06 kicks Unity08 butt":

"It is just so painfully obvious that the "unity" in Unity08 will last exactly as long as they support no actual candidates, have no platform, and have no opinion on any actual issues, and will not last one minute longer... Lets just call this post a place-holder for me to link with a giant "I told you so" post a year or two from now. I do have one serious question for any Unitoids that may read this - If a divided Republican/Democrat ticket in '08 is a good thing, why wouldn't a divided Republican/Democrat government in '06 be equally good?... Unity08 is promoting a meaningless petition in '06, while voters embracing the idea of divided government may be the very reason that the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives next week. There is a lesson here for Unity08. It is not too late for Unity08 to become relevant in '06."

Umm - I told you so.

On February 22, 2007 we offered a history lesson in "Unity08 and fellow travellers Tony Snow and David Gregory promote Un-American activities" where we concluded:

"One is tempted to suggest that unity, political civility, and polite debate is downright Un-American... It seems pretty obvious to me, that if we want more participation by the American voting populace, we want more, not less, political polarization. And conversely, a unified, politically correct, socially acceptable and boring form of partisan discourse, will inevitably result in less participation in the political process. What to do ? I suggest we just don't pay attention to those Un-American unifiers. Instead, I submit for your consideration - Divided We Stand United We Fall Rule #1: Polarized Partisan Politics Promotes Popular Participation."

There were a few other posts where the Unity08 efforts were noted, but over the last few months it became clear the blogosphere was not big enough for both a Unity08 and Bloomberg independent run. Particularly if the Unity08 members might somehow manage to accidentally not nominate Michael Bloomberg.

Finally, no eulogy of Unity08 would be complete without noting the work of Ahab Jim at the Irregular Times obsessively stalking this extinct white whale. Here we see an un-retouched photo of Jim throwing a few pointed questions at the Unity08 management early last year.

Unity08 is Dead.

Long Live Disunity08.

UPDATE: 16-January-2008
This post was cross-posted at Donklephant, where it caught the attention of Bob Roth and he responded in the comments. In the interest of fairness and completeness I will paste that comment exchange here. I have edited only the portion of Bob's comments that were directed to another commenter, and his full comments can be found at the Donklephant link:

1. Bob Roth Says:
   January 14th, 2008 at 10:38 am e

   MW, the truth of the matter, if you are interested, is that the closure of Unity08 was not a process of tranfering, redirecting, re-allocating, re-structuring, re-constituting, or re-organizing into a pro-Bloomberg effort. No member information or money was moved from one organization to the other. They are completely separate organizations.

   My comment to the members in the Unity08 forum was the result of their having been a false rumor started that day. We were operating on a time line to close the virtual doors of the organization which we advanced due to the nature of the press report. I felt that I owed it to the membership to tell them what I could since these particular members had worked avidly with me on the movement.

2. mw Says:
   January 14th, 2008 at 2:06 pm e

   Bob,
   Thanks for stopping by to provide that clarification. Much appreciated. Clearly any linkage between Unity08 and the Bloomberg effort is speculative and purely circumstantial. There just seems to be an awful lot of those convenient circumstances in evidence, most notable the founders of Unity08 now in the Draft Bloomberg camp.

   So just out of curiosity Bob, since Unity08 no longer needs a V.P. of Marketing

   - where are you going?

3. Bob Roth Says:
   January 15th, 2008 at 4:04 pm e

   MW, I’ve decided to retire to my home state to spend some time with family while also helping out some friends get a few different projects off the ground. As I am sure you might find if you read several political blogs, one of those projects happens to be the draftbloomberg.com movement...

   I don’t consider what is being written necessarily a “backlash.” I see that there are many I-told-ya-so’s out there, but what I have found in the world of politics is that there are a lot of name-callers and few action-takers. I can leave Unity08 with my head held high because I worked the insane hours and slept at the office to try and make a difference and thereby improve our country. You can argue whether it was right or wrong, but I took action.

   Finally, you make an assumption that there was money in the bank when it was all said and done… we had ballot access efforts, direct mail in the works, an office of staff, new site technology built… and we stretched a million and a half dollars in donations over an amazingly long time period equal to about a year and a half. I don’t know about you, but the startups that I have worked for have had a much higher burn rate than that.

   Good luck to you all!

   Sincerely,
   BobR

The Bob Roth chronicles continue at the Irregular Times where Ahab Jim covers the Baily / Rafshoon press conference announcing the new Draft Bloomberg initiative. He also did a little digging into the interesting history of the domain draftmichaelbloomberg.com, apparently secured by Unity08 in June, 2007. Bob Roth explains it all in the comments:

While I was at Unity08, we registered hundreds of domain names for all of the possible well-known candidates that had yet to enter the 2008 race, but could possibly do so. draftmichaelbloomberg.com happened to be one of them. The DBC purchased this asset from Unity08 as a temporary URL until draftbloomerg.com (the current URL) had propagated. draftmichaelbloomberg.com is now redirecting to draftbloomberg.com.

Comment by Bob Roth — 1/16/2008 @ 9:58 am

Curiouser and curiouser.

Divided and Balanced.™ Now that is fair.

Technorati tags: divided government, Unity08,2008 election,Mike Bloomberg.

2008 Presidential Candidate Stack Ranking - Post Iowa Caucus

The DWSUWF stack ranking has not been updated since last October, possibly because I spent a month in West Africa, possibly because I could not bring myself to watch any more content-free "debates". This morning I heard a rumor that real votes were cast and delegates awarded last night. Sure enough, Iowans caucused in record numbers and kicked the crap out of my stack ranking. Chris Dodd - gone. Joe Biden - gone. Romney - I just can't take it anymore, I dropped him to the bottom of the rank. But Huckabee? Really? Huckabee? I understand that the GOP cannot win without an electoral fusion of Evangelicals and the Libertarians (using Ryan Sager labels), but what happened to the fiscal conservative part? Politico says the Republicans are in disarray, Richard Viguerie thinks Huckabee is a disaster for the GOP, some readers at Ed Morrisey's right of center Captain's Quarters blog do not like any of the GOP candidates (ok, I am one of them), Markos at Daily Kos is crowing and Andrew Sullivan thinks the Republican Party is in the intensive care ward.

So - for the first ranking in the new year, the first ranking after an electoral contest that mattered, and the first ranking since DWSUWF scurried aboard the sinking GOP ship, we present an all new DWSUWF 2008 Presidential Candidate Stack Ranking.

DWSUWF 2008 Presidential Candidate
Stack Ranking v. 3.0

1) Ron Paul (R)
2) Barack Obama (D)
3) Mike Bloomberg (I)/Chuck Hagel (R)/Unity08
4) Hillary Clinton (D)
5) Fred Thompson (R)
6) Bill Richardson (D)
7) John McCain (R)
8) Al Gore (D)
9) Mitt Romney(R)
10) Dennis Kucinich (D)

A reminder - the DWSUWF stack ranking is a preference not a prediction. This list represents the top ten candidates DWSUWF would like to see as President, stack ranked in order of preference. Imposed on this list are two constraints: alternating political party affiliation, and a divided government outcome in 2008.

Changes - Democrat:
As mentioned, two of my top three Democratic candidates have dropped out of the race and the list. Last year at this time, Obama was near the top of my Democrat list (on the strength of his stirring endorsement of the Chicago Bears and his pre-invasion stance on the war). I had to do a little digging to recall why I dropped him below Clinton. It was based purely on their debate performance last April:

"Clinton was presidential. Obama and Edwards were not... Barack drops behind Hillary having failed the "Looks and sounds like a President" test in the debate."

After Iowa, Obama looks like a winner and Clinton does not, so I can go back to my original rationale - Obama was right on the Iraq war before the war, and that's a good reason to put him in the top spot. I'm still betting that when all is said and done, it will be a Clinton/Obama ticket - in that order. Lets see what happens in New Hampshire. With Biden and Dodd out, and Richardson hanging by a thread, this will be the last ranking with 10 candidates listed. I should cut it to six now, but will wait until after the NH primary. Everyone on the list below five is just filling an empty box. What about John Edwards? He is an empty suit, and could not even bring himself to congratulate Obama on his victory last night, or even mention his name in his "concession: speech.

Changes - Republican:
Ron Paul remains our preferred GOP candidate. I have no illusions. Ron Paul is not going to be President, nor will he win the Republican nomination. I support him because he is the only announced GOP candidate who was right on the war, and continues to apply a sorely needed libertarian cattle prod to the GOP posterior. The Paul 10% showing in Iowa was respectable, but the Paul organization needs to learn how to exceed lowered expectations rather than falling short of raised expectations. After Paul, I have a real problem with all of the GOP candidates. Bloomberg speculation is ramping up again, and with a real possibility that the GOP is going to rip itself apart, a Chuck Hagel / Mike Bloomberg / Unity08 independent run is looking feasible and attractive. They are now my second "conservative" choice. After them, I might as well be drawing straws between the remaining Republican candidates. I admire McCain, but his war stance is problematical. I cut Romney some slack in past rankings, pointing to his slick Clintonesque sincere-ish quality, even when explaining 180 degree flip-flops in core conviction. I thought that, like Bill Clinton, he would govern based on the polls and continuous compromise, and that is not a bad thing. With a Democratic majority in Congress in 2009 and 70% of America wanting us out of Iraq, he could be trusted to blow with the wind get us out of Iraq quickly, no matter what he says now to get the nomination. But if Republicans are not buying his act, and Iowa would indicate they are not, he's got nothing.

So what does it all mean? Certainly it is easy to overstate the importance of this one caucus. But the field is thinning and it will become even clearer next week after a real primary.

Next stack rank update - post New Hampshire.

Divided and Balanced.™ Now that is fair.

Technorati tags: divided government, Chuck Hagel,2008 election , John McCain, , Republican. Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Mike Bloomberg, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Bill Richardson, Iowa, Fred Thompson, ,Chris Dodd, Barack Obama.