Hypothetically speaking - "Americans Elect" could disenfranchise New York State (or any other state) in the 2012 presidential election.

Americans Elect (AE) is an organization that intends to qualify for the 2012 presidential ballot in all 50 states, then field a presidential slate through an open nomination process on the internet.

The Dividist took note of the organization when they received favorable coverage after "de-cloaking" a few weeks ago. Realistically, we can expect "Americans Elect" to have as much impact on the 2012 election as their predecessor organization "Unity08" had on the 2008 election. Which is to say - none. They can probably be safely ignored until such time as they show some real traction.

Still, this is an organization that proposes to dramatically change the way we select our President and they appear to have the financial support and the legal wherewithal to succeed with their ballot initiative. As such, it is prudent to take a deep dive into Americans Elect representations and bylaws, ask questions, and look for unintended consequences. Some are already working this beat.

Jim Cook of Irregular Times is skeptical and has been frustrated getting his questions answered. Sol Kleinsmith of Rise of The Center is more favorably inclined, has been promised an interview, and is soliciting his readers for questions to ask the organization. It should be an interesting interview.

Out of the subsequent discussion at RoTC an interesting artifact of the America's Elect proposed process for nominating and electing our president emerged. The Dividist considers the scenario intriguing enough that it deserves a post of it's own.

Here is the scenario. Let's say American's Elect has successfully obtained ballot status and fielded a credible presidential candidate in 2012. They lose the election but win a plurality in one or more states and consequently neither the Republican or Democratic candidate have a majority of electoral votes. This is a plausible scenario (unlike actually winning the presidency for an AE candidate – which has a zero possibility). While there is no history of third party candidates winning the presidency, they have on occasion won the electoral votes for one or more states. One could easily envision an AE candidate with a strong geographic appeal winning a plurality in a state and secure their electoral votes as a favorite son. In those circumstances AE would broker the decision between the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates for the entire country.

Americans Elect anticipated this scenario in their bylaws:

9.4.2. Coalition Agreement.

The Americans Elect ticket receives fewer popular votes nationally than the ticket of at least one of the major political parties and the Americans Elect Delegates have convened in convention after the popular vote but before the Electoral College vote and endorsed a candidate of either major political party on such terms and conditions as may be reflected in the vote of endorsement, in which case the person serving as Elector shall vote solely in the affirmative for the endorsed candidate and for no other candidate.

This says Americans Elect intends to reconvene an on-line convention and through a vote of their delegates (theoretically any registered voter who opts-in - The Dividist being one) decide whether the Republican or Democratic candidate will be our president. Specific details of how this AE re-convention would take place are sparse, but lets just take AE's representations at face value and look at this through the prism of a hypothetical scenario:

It is November 7, 2012. A plurality of the people of New York state have voted to put their confidence in AE candidate Michael Bloomberg. In a close election, neither Democratic candidate Barack Obama or Republican candidate Mitt Romney have secured a majority of electoral votes. New York's 31 electoral votes will now determine who will be president.

All of the registered voters of New York are not AE delegates. They voted in a general election for a candidate – Michael Bloomberg. Yet by AE bylaws, Michael Bloomberg is now sidelined and will not decide how to cast the New York electoral votes on behalf of the people of New York. Instead, Americans Elect delegates will decide whether Obama or Romney receive New York's 31 electoral votes and the presidency. As a practical matter, the people of the state of New York will be completely disenfranchised in the 2012 electoral college vote. How do you think they will feel about Texans, Floridians and Californians deciding whether their 31 electoral votes will be cast to make either Obama or Romney president? If clearly understood, would any New York voter to take that risk?

These are rhetorical questions. The answer is obvious.

The Dividist thinks that in their haste to put together bylaws for their ballot initiative, AE did not think through the political ramifications of this provision. Assuming they get on all 50 state ballots and come up with a credible candidate, they can easily be undone by this provision alone. It is just too easy to run against. If an AE candidate shows any strength in any state, the consequences of an AE win in that state will be shouted from the rooftops by competing campaigns, bloggers, pundits, partisan of both parties, and the mainstream media. The message is simple and easy to communicate: The state will be disenfranchised in the Electoral College if the AE candidate wins that state.

From a tactical political campaign perspective, this is the equivalent of leading with your chin in a boxing match. The Dividist suspects that AE has a glass jaw and it would not take much of an uppercut to put them on the canvas. One has to believe that once Americans Elect realizes this problem, they will change these bylaws if they can.

If nothing else, this is a cautionary tale on the importance of transparency and the need for a deep dive when vetting those advocating new ways to elect our president. If the top gun political public relations professionals that run AE missed something like this, you've got to wonder what else they missed. The Devil is in details. The details need to be out in the open where we can look for the bugger.

Divided and Balanced.™
Now that is fair.

They're B-a-a-a-a-ck! Unity08Draft Bloomberg Americans Electrises from the grave.

A "new" national organization focused on the 2012 presidential election uncloaked their semi-stealth operation over the weekend. After getting special access over the last few months, columnists Tom Friedman and John Avlon were released from their press embargo and obligingly wrote fawning reviews. Others were a bit more circumspect.

Americans Elect is a 501(c)4 corporation. This means they are not required to disclose donors. The reader may be more familiar with this particular corporate classification within the context of the Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission Supreme Court decision. Citizens United was a 501(c)4 corporation.

Taken at face value, the objectives of the organization are novel, ambitious and exciting. They intend to qualify for the 2012 Presidential Ballot in all 50 states, then field a presidential slate that is nominated through an open process on the internet by means of a virtual on-line convention.

Getting on the ballot in fifty states for any third party is a Herculean task. Or Sisyphean. Or both. Given the legislative roadblocks and partisan landmines used by the the two party duopoly to ambush third party electoral efforts, it is easy to rationalize the need for well-heeled donors to kick start the effort. As it turns out, Americans Elect secured some well heeled New York donors to kick start the effort. We don't know who they all are because, you know, Americans Elect is 501(c)4 corporation and they are not telling us.

Taken at face value and considered in a vacuum, while looking at them sideways and squinting slightly, one could get excited about this new high-concept high-tech initiative to reinvent our political process. Problem being, this is really not a new organization, and we have some recent history to consider, and considering that recent history, we learn we cannot take what they say at face value.

Americans Elect is Unity08, or more precisely - they would have been Unity12 until they got the shiny new name. Unity08 started at about the same time as I started this blog. I subsequently burned a few posts chronicling the Unity08 journey through the '06 midterms and the run up to the 2008 presidential election. In early 2008, well before a promised internet convention to nominate a "unity ticket" for the presidential election, Unity08 suddenly went up in flames and shuttered their site. Miraculously, only days later, the DraftBloomberg.com site emerged phoenix-like from the ashes, using the same address, infrastructure, a domain purchased a year earlier by Unity08, and staffed by many of the same people. This led some to speculate that the entire enterprise was nothing more than a Bloomberg stalking horse from the beginning. Cynics. Anyway, after Unityo8's rather unseemly demise (chronicled here and on Donklephant - the comments were particularly entertaining), I considered them dead and buried. Certainly I did not expect to see or hear from them again.

Surprise.

Jim Cook of the Irregular Times has been obsessively stalking this particular white whale since it's inception, and brings us up to date:

• The corporate address reported by Unity08 in the first half of 2009: 1775 Pennsylvania Avenue Suite 1212, Washington DC 20006
• The corporate address reported by the Unity12 Task Force in the second quarter of 2010: 1775 Pennsylvania Avenue Suite 1212, Washington DC 20006
• The corporate address reported by the renamed Americans Elect in the third quarter of 2010: 1775 Pennsylvania Avenue Suite 1212, Washington DC 20006
• Americans Elect is the intentional extension of Unity08, as Americans Elect Chair and Unity08 Director Peter Ackerman made clear when sitting for a deposition in a lawsuit filed by Unity08: "If Unity08 is successful in this litigation, Unity08 has a clear and definite intent to resume its activities -- renamed 'Unity12' -- for the 2012 presidential election. The 'Unity' mission remains as critical today for the 2012 presidential election as it was in 2006 for the 2008 presidential election." The only matter Ackerman didn't anticipate was the name change from 'Unity12' to 'Americans Elect.'

So here we are. Americans Elect, backed by a bucketload of New York mystery money, is hiring petition gatherers, fighting expensive legal battles, and doing the hard grunt work necessary to get on the ballot in all fifty states. All in order to field a presidential candidate - To Be Named Later. So - if you are considering putting your idealistic heart and soul into this brave new political operation, make sure you understand exactly what you are getting into.

Americans Elect is the Mike Bloomberg for President campaign. They probably need to maintain the Americans Elect facade to keep their 501(c)4 status. But if Mike Bloomberg is not heading their ticket in 2012, Americans Elect will go the way of Unity08. Now, if you want to see Bloomberg run as a spoiler in 2013, by all means - sign up. As for me, my views about this organization has not changed since January, 2008:

"Unity08 had over 120,000 members and raised about a million dollars. Not much by presidential campaign standards, not as much as they wanted, but nothing to scoff at. Actually, I liked the idea of a Hagel/Bloomberg Unity08 candidacy, which is why, although dubious, I signed up as a “delegate”. I feel bad for those who put their heart and soul into the effort, as they have been treated rather shabbily by the organization. The whole thing smells so manipulative, so contrived and betrays such cynical contempt for the Unity08 supporters that I would find it difficult to support Bloomberg now."

Look - I like Mike Bloomberg. Under the right circumstances, I might even be tempted to vote for him for President. But not as a 3rd Party candidate in 2012. He could not win but he could garner significant support and, like all "successful" 3rd party presidential candidates, function as a spoiler.

My guess is that in 2012 he would be more likely to pull votes from Obama than the Republican candidate. I would not have minded that in 2008, as we might have avoided the subsequent disastrous 2 years of Democratic One Party Rule. However, I am also not interested in seeing a return to equally disastrous One Party Republican Rule. The GOP will probably take control of the Senate in 2012. Reelecting Obama is the only way to avoid that particular calamity and retain our happily divided government.

Sorry Mike. Let me know when you start hanging around with a better class of 501(c)4 corporations.

Divided and Balanced.™
Now that is fair.