UPDATED: 12/20/2017
It's easy to understand why Republicans are circling the wagons on the Tax Bill. Given the dearth of legislative accomplishment in the first year of the Trump administration, failure to pass tax reform is truly an existential threat for the GOP. If a Unified GOP Government can't even legislate every Republican pol's wet dream of tax cuts, then what is the point of the Republican Party?
It's understandable, but inexcusable. The Republican party took control of Congress in 2010 by raising the specter of spiraling deficits and debt, only to support a bill in 2017 that will add trillions of dollars to both.
An understandable vote for GOP partisans? Yes. An inexcusable vote for fiscal conservatives? Yes. And for students of divided vs unified government, unsurprising and completely predictable. The only time our federal government approaches anything that vaguely resembles fiscal responsibility is when the government is firmly divided:
Showing posts with label deficit. Show all posts
Showing posts with label deficit. Show all posts
Sunday, December 17, 2017
Debt, Deficits, Divided Government and Deja Vu
Monday, February 09, 2015
Gridlock is Good! (exclamation point optional)
In January, the Congressional Budget Office published the 2015 estimate of federal spending, revenues, and deficit. On Groundhog Day, President Barack Obama released the administration's proposed FY 2016 Federal Budget. At the intersection of the two was a White House twitter-storm promoting the budget and taking credit for deficit reduction during the Obama administration.
The White House neglected to mention that the deficit reduction was primarily realized over the four years since the GOP took majority control of the House of Representative and divided the government. It takes a special kind of chutzpah for the President to complain about "mindless austerity" and congressional obstruction when they are the very reason for the declining deficit he is bragging about. But he did. The cognitive dissonance is only made worse by a few inconvenient facts:
"Since I took office, we’ve cut our deficits by about two-thirds." —President Obama #2016Budget pic.twitter.com/Lvf0lIkPXs
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) February 2, 2015
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Pining for earmarks, longing for graft, and fetishizing "getting things done"
Last week, while commenting on a John Harwood column about Ronald Reagan's negotiating skills, the Dividist pointed to a missing political tool that makes it harder for our federal government to forge compromise:
"Harwood missed another factor that made it easier for both Reagan and Clinton to push a deal through a divided congress. In the Reagan and Clinton eras legislative ideological opposition could be softened through the widespread practice of sweetening deals with earmarks secretly carved out in committee. Lets' call it what it was - a form of legalized bribery to buy votes by throwing money to a district or big contributor. It was slimy. It was corrupt as hell. But it was sure effective in greasing the legislative skids and blunting ideological opposition. It still happens, but not to the degree that it did in the Reagan and Clinton years. The loss of that tool makes the job harder for Obama. Regardless, if the question is where does responsibility lie for getting deals done in a divided government? The answer is that the buck stops in the Oval Office. Full stop."
David Plotz at Salon used Chris Christie's modus operandi as a starting point and takes it to another level. Here he pines for earmarks and waxes nostalgic for just the right amount of corruption in "Politics Should Be Dirtier":
Wednesday, January 01, 2014
Carnival of Divided Government LVI Excessum et Renatum Special Last Carnival & 2014 New Year Edition
Welcome to the Carnival of Divided Government Excessum et Renatum - Special 56th and Final 2014 New Year Edition.
As noted before, the whole "Blog Carnival" concept is well past its "Sell By" date, eclipsed by Facebook, Twitter, and other social network aggregation schemes. Blog Carnivals were popular when the Dividist started this blog in 2006. The idea was to solicit and compile posts and articles contributed to the carnival on a particular subject then periodically share the content and links on the blog. Social media fulfills that function now.
We've not received much relevant content contributed to the carnival for a few years. This feature morphed into a simple compilation of topical posts and articles that caught the Dividist's attention as he wandered about the 'sphere. The format was as comfortable as a old shoe, so we just kept it going.
As we return from an extended sabbatical, kick off an election year, and attempt to insinuate this blog into social media platforms, the time has come to put this obsolete format to bed. This last effort will help the Dividist "prime the pump" after the long layoff, but the Oblogocare Death Panel has spoken. Without further ado, here the Carnival of Divided Government swan song....
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
The First Season of Sequestivus
A Time to Air Grievances
A Time to Air Grievances
The legend of the origin of Sequestivus*
The great leader Obama, who was dearly loved by (52% of) the people spoke to his minions and said "Hear me! You must fear the great beast Sequester, for if it is loosed upon the land there will pestilence and famine." And the people listened to Obama and wondered.
"Go now!" He pointed "Go to the dark castle on the Hill, where the Congress of Many Heads created the great abomination called Sequestration. Bring your pitchforks and torches! Storm the castle and kill the great beast before it wreaks havoc on the land!" The great leader Obama paused, nodding his head sagely "And if you accidently kill the Congress of Many Heads that lives in the castle on The Hill, well - you know - collateral damage... shit happens... I wouldn't get too worried about it."
The people considered what the dear leader said and asked. "WTF? A 2.3% decrease in the rate of spending increases? Are you f*cking kidding me? Do you have any idea what kind of cuts we've had to make over the last four years? And you're saying can't figure out how to cut a lousy 2.3% out of this bloated governments spending increases?"
And the dear leader Obama's heart was heavy when the people did not heed his warning. Not to mention pissed. So it came to pass that the Sequestration monster was released to prey upon 48% of the people. And the great leader Obama again went to the people and said "I declare this to be the Season of Sequestivus, A time of regret, remorse, and recrimination. Let the Airing of Grievances begin."
And so, as a public service, the Dividist Town Crier herewith offers a selection of public grievances in this the first fortnight of the first season of Sequestivus.
Sunday, March 03, 2013
Who Debt? Obama Debt!
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities recently updated their analysis of the underlying causes of our debt and deficit problems. Their key findings are summarized in these two charts.
As you can see, they arrive at a stunning conclusion. Four years after he left office, the deficit is still all George W. Bush's fault:
"Just two policies dating from the Bush Administration — tax cuts and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan — accounted for over $500 billion of the deficit in 2009 and will account for nearly $6 trillion in deficits in 2009 through 2019 (including associated debt-service costs of $1.4 trillion). By 2019, we estimate that these two policies will account for almost half — over $8 trillion — of the $17 trillion in debt that will be owed under current policies. (See Figure 2.)"In fact, the CBPP project the debt and deficits will continue to be George W. Bush's fault for as far as the chart can see - throughout President Obama's second term, through the next president's first term, to 2019 and beyond. Before we take a look under the covers, it's worth reviewing the history of their thesis.
Monday, February 18, 2013
Sequestration is not the problem. Sequestration is (part of) the solution.
UPDATED: 2/20/2013
The steady drumbeat in the mainstream media about the sequestration "crisis" is getting louder by the day. With less than two weeks until the cuts go into effect it is already approaching an absurdist crescendo.
Let's be clear. The "sequester" is not a crisis. The "sequester" is not the problem. The real problem is the massive growth in federal spending creating unsustainable deficits and debt that will be shouldered by generations to come. The "sequester" is a solution to a real problem facing America.
That said, the "sequester" is not a great solution. It's not even a good solution. The sequester cuts are not a smart way to address the spending problem. The sequester cuts are also not adequate to solve the spending and unfunded liability disaster that looms in our entitlement programs. But the odds of getting anything smart out of this administration or this congress that even makes as little impact on the real problem as do the sequester cuts are vanishingly small. Since it's a bad bet to rely on our leaders for smart significant cuts, let's at least take the cuts they already passed.
![]() |
| Find the sequester |
| The sequestration is coming! |
That said, the "sequester" is not a great solution. It's not even a good solution. The sequester cuts are not a smart way to address the spending problem. The sequester cuts are also not adequate to solve the spending and unfunded liability disaster that looms in our entitlement programs. But the odds of getting anything smart out of this administration or this congress that even makes as little impact on the real problem as do the sequester cuts are vanishingly small. Since it's a bad bet to rely on our leaders for smart significant cuts, let's at least take the cuts they already passed.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Oboomercare & The Dumbest Generation
While I was neglecting my blogging duties last month, the Supreme Court ruled on the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act aka ObamaCare. Since then the debate reignited on several points: Did the Supreme Court get it right or wrong by ruling the individual mandate constitutional because it was really a tax? Did Chief Justice John Roberts bravely rule on the constitutional merits of the law or did he hide behind the fig leaf of congressional taxing power? Did he show judicial activism or judicial restraint? Is ObamaCare the biggest tax increase of all time or is it not? Will ObamaCare reduce the deficit or take the deficit to new heights?
Some of these questions answer themselves. If ObamaCare costs $1 trillion dollars to provide new benefits (and it does), and it does not really control costs (it doesn't), and it really is deficit neutral (as the CBO asserts), then simple arithmetic tells us it must also raise $1 trillion dollars of new revenue (which SCOTUS identifies as a tax to be constitutional). And that pretty much makes it the biggest nominal tax increase in our history.
Monday, April 23, 2012
Dividist Doubles Down on Divided Government for Six Year Blogiversary
The Dividist let several auspicious dates float by without comment over the last week, including Earth Day, 4-20 Day and Tax Day. The latter is responsible for us missing the former. One date that we cannot let slip by is the six year blogiversary of The Dividist Papers (aka Divided We Stand United We Fall). We celebrate by reflecting on the journey as we paraphrase previous posts, plagiarize ourselves, and update some familiar themes and favorite topics.
Six years ago today, the Dividist started this blog by asking the question "Is this blog for you?" As no one else was reading the blog at the time, the Dividist answered his own query saying "Probably not."
Monday, August 22, 2011
When Bipartisanship Happens to Good Partisans
A meditation on debt ceilings and deficit reduction.
A meditation on debt ceilings and deficit reduction.
In the dark days before the debt ceiling compromise vote, with the doomsday "debtapocalyspe" countdown dominating the media, several polls struck a common theme: The public demands bipartisan compromise! Taegon Goddard's Wire summarized the gestalt of the moment:"A new Pew Research poll finds 68% of Americans say that lawmakers should compromise on the debt ceiling debate, even it means striking a deal they disagree with. Just 23% say lawmakers who share their views should stand by their principles, even if that leads to default."
So it follows that when our representatives and leaders in Washington D.C finally got together and crafted a truly bipartisan deal, the country cheered wildly. Or not:
"A majority of Americans disapprove of the deal struck Sunday by President Barack Obama and congressional leaders that will raise the country's legal borrowing limit, and three out of four believe elected officials have acted like "spoiled children."Since that legislation was signed, nothing but cries, lamentations and the rending of garments has been heard across the land. The animus from the right, left and center for the debt ceiling compromise is quite extraordinary. Q&O had a good survey of the early reaction and little in the popular assessment has changed in the weeks since.
Congressional and presidential approval levels plunged to new lows. When describing the debt ceiling deal and the process and the process to get there, the pejorative of choice is : Our government is... OMG ! DYSFUNCTIONAL! And it must be true. I mean ~750,000 Google search hits on "debt ceiling dysfunctional" can't be wrong. Who am I to argue with that? But maybe, just maybe - dare I say it? Our government is working exactly as it was designed to work, and our representatives are doing exactly what we, the voters, sent them to Washington to do.
For all of the lip service paid to the virtues of bipartisan compromise from pundits and bloggers across the political spectrum, there appears to be very little support for a picture perfect example of a bipartisan centrist compromise when Congress does enact one.
Consider the actual vote for the debt ceiling legislation:
Senate Vote: 74 For 26 Against
Republicans: 28 For 19 Against
Democrats: 46 For 7 Against
House Vote: 269 For 161 Against
Republicans: 174 For 66 Against
Democrats: 95 For 95 Against
Republicans: 28 For 19 Against
Democrats: 46 For 7 Against
House Vote: 269 For 161 Against
Republicans: 174 For 66 Against
Democrats: 95 For 95 Against
Saturday, July 30, 2011
BREAKING: Divided Government to the rescue on the debt ceiling "crisis"
ABC's John Karl reports that a deal in principle has been struck between our Democratic President and Republican leadership in Congress:
Hmmm. Let's see - significant cuts across the board, cuts to the military, cuts in entitlements, a vehicle for revenue enhancement and even more cuts later, and all on the brink of default to the dissatisfaction of both the right and left."Here, according to Democratic and Republican sources, are the key elements:
- A debt ceiling increase of up to $2.1 to $2.4 trillion (depending on the size of the spending cuts agreed to in the final deal).
- They have now agreed to spending cuts of roughly $1.2 trillion over 10 years.
- The formation of a special Congressional committee to recommend further deficit reduction of up to $1.6 trillion (whatever it takes to add up to the total of the debt ceiling increase). This deficit reduction could take the form of spending cuts, tax increases or both.
- The special committee must make recommendations by late November (before Congress' Thanksgiving recess).
- If Congress does not approve those cuts by December 23, automatic across-the-board cuts go into effect, including cuts to Defense and Medicare. This "trigger" is designed to force action on the deficit reduction committee's recommendations by making the alternative painful to both Democrats and Republicans.
- A vote, in both the House and Senate, on a balanced budget amendment."
This will pass on a narrow bipartisan vote over even narrower bipartisan opposition from the extremes of both parties. Just the way it is supposed to work.
The Dividist is not one to say "I told you so". But - just this once - He would like to take this opportunity to mention that - um - he told you so.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Ministry of Truth issues Deficit Reduction Plan
The Dividist is not in the habit of agreeing with Paul Krugman. Generally we cite his column only to point and laugh, but this time he has a point. Oh sure Krugnman's response to President Obama's speech unveiling his deficit plan was the usual predictable Krugman claptrap - "Spending cuts are bad!", "Tax increases are good!" However, he makes an interesting observation among the several "updates" appended to the post. This first update wasn't it:"Update: I should probably say, I could live with this as an end result. If this becomes the left pole, and the center is halfway between this and Ryan, then no — better to pursue the zero option of just doing nothing and letting the Bush tax cuts as a whole expire."
"I don’t expect the details in any final agreement to look exactly like the approach I laid out today. This a democracy; that’s not how things work. I’m eager to hear other ideas from all ends of the political spectrum. And though I’m sure the criticism of what I’ve said here today will be fierce in some quarters, and my critique of the House Republican approach has been strong, Americans deserve and will demand that we all make an effort to bridge our differences and find common ground." President Obama - April 13, 2011
Krugman's second update is where we find a cogent and insightful observation (Hey - It can happen):
"Update update: I don’t want to step too much on the administration’s selling point, but progressives upset by the claim that there are three dollars of spending cuts for every dollar of tax increases should be aware that there’s a bit of creative labeling going on. As I understand it, they’re counting both interest savings and reductions in “tax expenditures” — subsidies through the tax code — as spending cuts. It’s a much more balanced plan if you look at the balance between revenue increases and non-interest outlays."
"I believe reform should protect the middle class, promote economic growth, and build on the Fiscal Commission's model of reducing tax expenditures so that there is enough savings to both lower rates and lower the deficit... my plan will require us to come together and make up the additional savings with more spending cuts and more spending reductions in the tax code."
The political motivation for this linguistic sleight of hand is clear. By a 62%-29% margin, American people support spending cuts over tax hikes to fix the deficit. Centrists and Independents understand that insane out of control spending is the problem. But it still begs the question - Who do they think this is going to fool? It is not the right. It is not the left. It is not the independent center. The only ones who appear to be taken in by this disingenuous rhetoric is the union leadership.
The Dividist would like to understand what they hoped to accomplish with this absurd misuse of language and misrepresentation of reality. Perhaps they simply have not quite grasped the subtle difference between Lakoffian "framing" and Orwellian "doublethink." Perhaps they truly believe they can influence political perception by pretending a word means something that it does not. These phrases should be embarrassing to supporters, are certainly insulting to the electorate, and betrays a real contempt for the intelligence of the American voting public. But on the plus side, they provide fodder for a humorous and well-deserved skewering by Jon Stewart (the good part starts at 4:15):
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| Slashdance - Democratic Deficit Reduction Plan | ||||
| www.thedailyshow.com | ||||
| ||||
"Can we afford that and the royalty checks you will need to send to George Orwell?"
We can thank President Obama's political team for the new and improved slogans to be found outside the Ministry of Truth:
War is Peace
Freedom is Slavery
Ignorance is Strength
Tax Increases are Spending Reductions
The saddest aspect of the President's presentation is that on the very point they danced around, the President is right. Revenues will indeed need to increase in addition to massive spending cuts. Unfortunately, the point is undermined by the perverse presentation and the absurd euphemism for tax increase. It is hard to start a budget compromise waltz when one of the dancers is pretending to hear a tango.
Nevertheless, the dance has begun. The administration has taken a dainty step closer to the center after their discredited first movement. Whether our legislators are listening to the same tune remains to be seen, but it is encouraging to hear some pundits from across the spectrum beginning to harmonize:
Clive Crook:
"Bowles-Simpson is the right basic answer. Obama several times said he was drawing on their recommendations, but he did so only partially and incoherently. He has not embraced their overall approach, not by a long shot. Nothing on Social Security. Little of what they propose on Medicare. And on tax reform I think he is actually making it harder for himself to move, eventually, in their direction."
"The most serious charge against Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget is not the risible claim, made most prominently by President Obama in his George Washington University address, that it would “sacrifice the America we believe in.” The serious charge is that the Ryan plan fails by its own standards: Because it only cuts spending without raising taxes, it accumulates trillions in debt and doesn’t balance the budget until the 2030s... The Simpson-Bowles commission, for example, identifies $1.1 trillion of such revenue-robbers. In one scenario, it strips them all out and thus is able to lower rates for everyone to three brackets of 8 percent, 14 percent and 23 percent. The commission does recommend that, on average, about $100 billion annually of that $1.1 trillion be kept by the Treasury (rather than going back to the taxpayer) to reduce the deficit. This is a slight deviation from revenue neutrality, but it still yields a major cut for the top rate from the current 35 percent to 23 percent. The overall result is so reasonable and multiply beneficial that it rightly gained the concurrence of even the impeccably conservative (commission member) Sen. Tom Coburn. That’s the beauty of tax reform: It is both transparent and flexible."
Divided and Balanced.™
Now that is fair.
Now that is fair.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Elections Have Consequences
F-35 Alternate Engine Edition
F-35 Alternate Engine Edition
An interesting and surprising story this week offers insight into the difference between the 111th and 112th Congress. The Dividist hopes this is a sneak preview of coming attractions from our new Tea Party infused House of Representatives in the upcoming budget battles.Obama, GOP freshmen win in jet engine budget fightLet's review. The alternate engine is a defense pork barrel project that will not die because it is supported by legislators determined to bring home the bacon to their respective district or state. It was opposed by Presidents Bush and Obama, as well as their Secretaries of Defense who considered it unnecessary and a waste of taxpayer money. Nevertheless, Congress continued to allocate billions on an engine the military did not want or need.WASHINGTON (AP) — Determined to reduce deficits, impatient House Republican freshmen made common cause with President Barack Obama on Wednesday, scoring their biggest victory to date in a vote to cancel $450 million for an alternative engine for the Pentagon's next-generation warplane.
"Right here, right now was a surefire way to reduce spending," declared Rep. Tom Rooney of Florida, a second-term lawmaker whose summons to cut money from the F-35 fighter jet was answered by 47 Republican newcomers...
Strictly by the numbers, the vote was a bipartisan one, with 110 Republicans and 123 Democrats supporting cancellation of the funds, while 68 Democrats and 130 Republicans wanted to leave them in place. But that breakdown obscured the change wrought by the voters last fall. A similar vote in May ended in defeat for opponents of the alternative engine."
Last May, with a Democratic President and large Democratic majorities in both the Senate and House, this project continued to be funded, passing in Nancy Pelosi's House of Representatives by a vote of 231-193.
Last week, in the Republican controlled House of Representatives, despite Speaker of the House John Boehner supporting the continued funding of the unneeded engine, it was finally defeated. Credit to President Obama and Defense Secretary Robert Gates for reaching out to Republican legislators. Kudos to the new crop of Tea Party supported freshmen Republican representatives who stood up to their own leadership.
The Dividist was dubious about the bipartisan lame duck tax and spend compromise passed in the last gasp of the One Party Democratic Regime last December, but this kind of bipartisanship compromise the Dividist can get behind. Score one for Divided Government and the Tea Party.
The Reader may be shocked! shocked! to learn that this fight is still not over. The Democratic controlled Senate may yet restore the funding. I'll leave it to The Reader to figure out where the problem in the Senate may lie. Here is a hint:
There will be a lot money and influence put to work in the Senate in a last ditch effort to restore funding for this boondoggle. There will be bipartisan support. But the Senate rejected this once before and it seems likely that bipartisan support will also be found to reject it again.
The Dividist is optimistic. Pass the popcorn.
X-posted at Donklephant
Divided and Balanced.™
Now that is fair.
Now that is fair.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Budget Bolero Ballet Begins
On Monday, as the President's proposed budget was released, the right and left executed a familiar pas de deux. On Tuesday the President introduced the budget in a Press conference:
"Just like every family in America, the federal government has to do two things at once. It has to live within its means while still investing in the future. If you’re a family trying to cut back, you might skip going out to dinner, you might put off a vacation. But you wouldn’t want to sacrifice saving for your kids’ college education or making key repairs in your house. So you cut back on what you can’t afford to focus on what you can’t do without. And that’s what we’ve done with this year’s budget...
We also know that cutting annual domestic spending alone won’t be enough to meet our long-term fiscal challenges. That’s what the bipartisan fiscal commission concluded; that’s what I've concluded. And that's why I’m eager to tackle excessive spending wherever we find it -– in domestic spending, but also in defense spending, health care spending, and spending that is embedded in the tax code."
If one was to quibble with the President's message, it would be with his measured tone, and not the words themselves. The Dividist is just not sure that skipping a few dinners out and cutting back on vacations is going to cut it when the family debt is greater than the gross economic output of the entire fracking planet. Just sayin....
The problem is not with what President Obama says. His message is spot on. The problem is with what he does. The problem is that, despite what he says, the budget he is proposing does not reduce spending. He says we need to "live within our means". This budget does not. He says we need to "cut back" on spending. This budget increases spending. Those of us who are familiar with conventional English usage know that increasing spending is the diametric opposite of "cutting back."
Chris Edwards at Cato:
The chart shows Obama's proposed spending for FY2012 from last year's budget, and his proposed spending for the same year from his new budget. His new budget proposes slightly more discretionary and entitlement spending for next year than did his last budget!
- Last year, Obama planned to spend $1.301 trillion on discretionary programs in FY2012, but now he plans to spend $1.340 trillion.
- Last year, Obama planned to spend $2,107 on entitlement programs in FY2012, but now he plans to spend $2,140.
So take that Tea Party!
Obama claimed in his "Budget Message" yesterday that "taking further steps toward reducing our long-term deficit has to be a priority," but looking at his actual budget numbers shows that isn't true."
"Actual numbers" can be so annoying. So black and white. So... indifferent to soothing tones or soaring rhetoric.
The Dividist is going to cut President Obama some slack here. I assume that this budget is a tactical non-serious opening offer in what the administration expects to be a protracted, knock-down drag-out no-holds-barred steel cage match negotiation with Congress. Given the slings and arrows the President suffered from his left flank attacking his negotiating posture on Obamacare and the lame duck tax compromise, we should expect a different opening gambit now.
The administration knows that whatever they put on the table, the need to compromise with the GOP will force deeper cuts into the final budget. So why not start with a budget that makes no cuts whatsoever? It is a good negotiating posture, but the Dividist just can't believe he has the cajones to describe this budget as if it represents any fiscal belt-tightening at all. Even the press corp had a hard time finding anything resembling fiscal responsibility in the proposed budget.
This glaring credibility gap between what the President says and does is the defining characteristic of his first term. This budget may be the worst example yet. Remember when President Obama said there would be no more budget gimmicks to hide the real cost of programs and the impact on the deficit? Remember when President Obama claimed that Obamacare will lower costs and reduce the budget? Well, meet the Mother of all Budget Gimmicks, used to disguise the fact that Obamacare is not paid for. Not even close. This is not a credibility gap, this is a credibility Grand Canyon.
Megan McArdle explains:
The music plays on."Obama's budget includes a two-year, paid for fix. But how it's paid for is pretty worrying: as Cannon's graph shows, the spending is all done in the first two years, but the cuts needed to pay for them take place over 10 years.
- Limit the taxes that states can place on Medicaid providers, which has had the effect of increasing the federal contribution to state Medicaid budgets: $18 billion over 10 years
- Claw back "erroneous payments" to United Healthcare under Medicare Advantage: $6 billion one time
- Limit the ability of brand name pharmaceutical manufacturers to cut side deals with generic manufacturers to end patent challenges: $8.8 billion over 10 years
- Shorten the market exclusivity period for biologic drugs from 12 years to 7: $2.3 billion over 10 years
- Lower Medicaid reimbursements for home medical equipment: $6.45 billion over 10 years
This is a dog's breakfast. First of all, as I noted yesterday, many of these things are having trouble getting through Congress as it is; and second of all, why on earth would you use this motley grab-bag of long-term pay-fors to cover short term spending? The answer, I suspect, is that the cupboard is bare. They don't have any better revenue mechanisms left--everything that anyone even thought was plausible went into ObamaCare. And yet, they can't simply cut doctor's reimbursements by one fifth. So they scrambled for anything at all--and the only way they could come up with the necessary revenue was to stretch the cuts out over ten years, while covering the spending for only two years.
Obviously this is not a sustainable strategy, any more than I can simply pay for an increase in my annual restaurant budget by cutting back on my movie budget for the next ten years--eventually, you've zeroed out the rest of the entertainment budget, and the tab at Komi is still growing. Yet this seems to be the only plan the administration has to pay for the doc fix--a problem that wasn't addressed during health care reform, as far as I can tell, precisely because it was too expensive."
The Dividist would like to see President Obama re-elected, as he distrusts One Party Republican rule even more than he distrust President Obama. But President Obama is not going to get re-elected if he continues to treat American voters like they are complete idiots. He cannot tell us that increased spending is really a spending cut, and that a massive new entitlement program will save money when it will actually cost money and expect to maintain any credibility.
If he wants to get reelected he needs to outflank the Republicans on fiscal responsibility by supporting the bipartisan recommendations of the deficit commission he sponsored. If he puts the full weight of the Presidency behind the Simpson-Bowles Plan and pushed it to a floor debate, the American people would put their electoral weight behind him.
Shall we dance?
Thursday, December 02, 2010
This blog supports the Simpson-Bowles Deficit Plan and I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.
UPDATED: 12/3/2010
Last spring President Obama chartered the bi-partisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform to develop a comprehensive solution to our impending debt crisis. On Wednesday they released their final report. The 18 member commission met to review and publicly comment on the report. The entire commission will vote on Friday whether to adopt the plan. If 14 of the 18 members vote in favor, the plan will be offered for debate and a vote on the floor in both houses of Congress. This plan deserves that debate and vote. The American people deserve to hear Congress debate this plan.
I read the plan and watched some of the commission meeting on c-span. I can't find the video or transcript of the meeting, but will update this post with a clip and quotes if/when I track down the video or transcript. In the meantime, a couple of choice paragraphs from report Preamble:
Let me be clear. There are a million and one things wrong with this plan. Whole sections are completely ass-backwards. There are not enough cuts, health care is not dealt with adequately, and... I could go on. As Erskine Bowles says - everyone can find a reason to be against this plan. It is not libertarian and it is not liberal and it is not conservative and it is not Democratic and it is not Republican. No one but no one is going to like it. But we have to face reality. This country is fucked if we don't get our fiscal house in order.
Last spring President Obama chartered the bi-partisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform to develop a comprehensive solution to our impending debt crisis. On Wednesday they released their final report. The 18 member commission met to review and publicly comment on the report. The entire commission will vote on Friday whether to adopt the plan. If 14 of the 18 members vote in favor, the plan will be offered for debate and a vote on the floor in both houses of Congress. This plan deserves that debate and vote. The American people deserve to hear Congress debate this plan.I read the plan and watched some of the commission meeting on c-span. I can't find the video or transcript of the meeting, but will update this post with a clip and quotes if/when I track down the video or transcript. In the meantime, a couple of choice paragraphs from report Preamble:
"Our challenge is clear and inescapable: America cannot be great if we go broke. Our businesses will not be able to grow and create jobs, and our workers will not be able to compete successfully for the jobs of the future without a plan to get this crushing debt burden off our backs...
As members of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, we spent the past eight months studying the same cold, hard facts. Together, we have reached these unavoidable conclusions: The problem is real. The solution will be painful. There is no easy way out. Everything must be on the table. And Washington must lead...
The President and the leaders of both parties in both chambers of Congress asked us to address the nation’s fiscal challenges in this decade and beyond. We have worked to offer an aggressive, fair, balanced, and bipartisan proposal – a proposal as serious as the problems we face. None of us likes every element of our plan, and each of us had to tolerate provisions we previously or presently oppose in order to reach a principled compromise. We were willing to put our differences aside to forge a plan because our nation will certainly be lost without one...
After all the talk about debt and deficits, it is long past time for America’s leaders to put up or shut up. The era of debt denial is over, and there can be no turning back. We sign our names to this plan because we love our children, our grandchildren, and our country too much not to act while we still have the chance to secure a better future for all our fellow citizens."
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
It's the spending stupid.
Let me net this out:
Long term - I don't have an answer. But I do know that right now we don't particularly need a plan to build a hospital for our critically ill federal budget patient. What we need right now is a tourniquet to stop the bleeding.
Short term - Neither party can be trusted on spending. Divided government has been shown as a historical fact to restrain the growth of spending (as well as deliver other benefits) by scholars, political scientists, economists, historians, and constitutional lawyers. There is exactly one voting booth imperative for anyone concerned about spending - voting for divided government. This means voting straight Republican for federal office in 2010, and if they take Congress, then voting to re-elect Obama in 2012.
Republican vs. Democrat is a false choice.
Divided Government vs One Party Rule is the real choice facing voters.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
President Obama to freeze some spending soon. But not too much. And not too soon. Liberals outraged.
"The payoff in budget savings would be small relative to the deficit: The estimated $250 billion in savings over 10 years would be less than 3 percent of the roughly $9 trillion in additional deficits the government is expected to accumulate over that time."Shortly after the announcement, Jared Bernstein, economist and economic adviser to Vice President Biden, appeared on the Rachel Maddow Show - the media outlet that is arguably the most direct conduit to the progressive community. Mr. Bernstein proceeds to soft pedal even the very modest impact the policy would have on deficits, almost apologizing for it, and practically promising that the administration will really continue to be the big spenders that the progressives know and love. Maddow wasn't buying what Jared was selling:
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
One cannot help but wonder if the administration is trying to be all things to all people, and risks representing nothing and no one.
I am sure the President will clear all of this up in the State of the Union address tomorrow.
I can't wait.
Sunday, July 19, 2009
I can't add anything to this:
Guest WaPo OpEd on "Obama's predicament"
Every once in a while you run across something so well written, so precisely articulated, and so perfectly spot-on, all you can do is cut and paste. From Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch opining in the Washington Post:"The key to understanding Obama's predicament is to realize that while he ran convincingly as a repudiation of Bush, he is in fact doubling down on his predecessor's big-government policies and perpetual crisis-mongering. From the indefinite detention of alleged terrorists to gays in the military to bailing out industries large and small, Obama has been little more than the keeper of the Bush flame. Indeed, it took the two of them to create the disaster that is the 2009 budget, racking up a deficit that has already crossed the historic $1 trillion mark with almost three months left in the fiscal year.
Beyond pushing the "emergency" $787 billion stimulus package (even while acknowledging that the vast majority of funds would be released in 2010 and beyond), Obama signed a $410 billion omnibus spending bill and a $106 billion supplemental spending bill to cover "emergency" expenses in Iraq and Afghanistan (and, improbably, a "cash for clunkers" program). Despite pledges to achieve a "net spending cut" by targeting earmarks and wasteful spending, Obama rubber-stamped more than 9,000 earmarks and asked government agencies to trim a paltry $100 million in spending this year, 0.003 percent of the federal budget.
Such is the extent of Obama's magical realism that he can promise to post all bills on the Internet five days before signing them, serially break that promise and then, when announcing that he wouldn't even try anymore, have a spokesman present the move as yet another example of "providing the American people more transparency in government."
What the new president has not quite grasped is that the American people understand both irony and cognitive dissonance... Don't pretend that a budget that doubles the national debt in five years and triples it in 10 is the work of politicians tackling "the difficult choices." Americans have a pretty good (if slow-to-activate) B.S. detector, and the more you mislead them now, the worse they'll punish you later."
[NOTE: I did find something to add - a couple of self serving links to the embedded quote]
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