Wednesday, August 04, 2010

CRS: "The precise number of new entities that will ultimately be created pursuant to PPACA [Obamacare] is currently unknowable"


This updated chart of "Your New Health Care System" got a lot of play around the right-o-sphere. The chart is, of course, a partisan Republican attack on the Obamacare hairball that was steamrolled on a partisan Democratic vote over a loud but legislatively impotent Republican minority. However - to paraphrase a favorite quote ("Just because you are paranoid, doesn't mean they are not out to get you") - just because it is partisan, does not mean it is not true. This one has the ring of truth and garnered accidental support from the non-partisan Congressional Research Service.

The CRS Report "New Entities Created Pursuant to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act" is apparently intended to defuse charts like the one at the top of the post, but actually details an even more frightening state of affairs:
"This report describes dozens of new governmental organizations or advisory bodies that are mentioned in PPACA, but does not include other types of entities that were created by the legislation (e.g., various demonstration projects, grants, trust funds, programs, systems, formulas, guidelines, risk pools, websites, ratings areas, model agreements, or protocols). A table in the Appendix is organized in terms of entities (1) that were created by PPACA itself (e.g., through statutory language stating that an organization is “established” or “created”); (2) that PPACA requires the President to establish (e.g., “the President shall establish”); (3) that PPACA requires the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to establish (e.g., “the Secretary shall establish”); (4) that PPACA requires some other organization to establish; and (5) that PPACA authorizes to be established....

The precise number of new entities that will ultimately be created pursuant to PPACA is currently unknowable
.. The legislation sometimes indicates when and where certain entities are to be established, how members are to be appointed, the amount and timing of appropriations, whether certain general management laws are applicable, and when the entities will cease to exist. In other cases, however, PPACA is silent with regard to these and other issues. The degree of specificity in these provisions may have implications for congressional control and, conversely, the amount of discretion that agencies will have in the implementation of the legislation. PPACA significantly increased the appointment responsibilities of the Comptroller General of the United States, and it is unclear how the Government Accountability Office (GAO) will be able to independently audit entities whose members are appointed by the head of GAO."
The report was released in early July, but the MSM and blogosphere are just now beginning to pick up on the ramifications of what it says about our new Health Care law of the land.

Politico: Health reform's bureaucratic spawn
"Don’t bother trying to count up the number of agencies, boards and commissions created under the new health care law. Estimating the number is “impossible,” a recent Congressional Research Service report says, and a true count “unknowable.” The reasons for the uncertainty are many, according to CRS’s Curtis W. Copeland, the author of the report “New Entities Created Pursuant to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.” The provisions of the law that create the new entities vary dramatically in specificity. The law says a lot about some of them and a little about many, and merely mentions a few. Some have been authorized without any instructions on who is to appoint whom, when that might happen and who will pay."
CNN: Cafferty File
"A sprawling bureaucratic giant - nobody knows how big it will be. That seems to be the result of President Obama's new health care law. According to Politico, a recent report says it's "impossible" to estimate the number of agencies, boards and commissions created by the new law. The Congressional Research Service report points to many reasons for this. First off, the parts of the law that create new bodies vary drastically. In some cases – the law gives lots of details... in other cases, barely a mention. Also, the law authorizes some new entities... without saying who will do the appointing, or when it will happen. And all this means some agencies could wait indefinitely for staff and funding... while others could multiply... creating quote "an indeterminate number of new organizations." So far this is shaping up to be exactly what the critics were afraid it would be... How will the government manage our health care if it's "impossible" to know the number of agencies, boards and commissions created by the new health care law?"

Ed Morrisey at Hot Air: ObamaCare: The Infinite Bureaucracy Act
"CRS wanted to say that there wasn’t enough certainty in the number of agencies, panels, and committees to put them into flowcharts with connecting lines. Like Nancy Pelosi once argued, the CRS report says that we can’t know what’s in ObamaCare until the government rolls it out . That in itself is a big, big problem. It seems clear that Congress just authorized a self-perpetuating bureaucracy, one that can expand on its own and make determinations far outside of the boundaries Democrats promised during the ObamaCare debate. And if that’s true, then it is equally true that the claims made on the cost of administering ObamaCare had no real basis in fact. How can one estimate a cost for a bureaucracy that is entirely undefined in size and scope?"
Washington Examiner: Obamacare is just the beginning
"Just in case anybody missed Copeland's point, Barbash noted that "implicit in the report is a message not to take too seriously the elaborate charts and seemingly precise numbers peddled by Republican critics that are designed to show the law's many bureaucratic tentacles." But folks who actually read the Copeland report and scan those two scary GOP charts are quite likely to reach the contrary conclusion. In fact, one might even think the GOP critics were being too easy on Obamacare... Copeland looked at only part of the picture. The rest of the picture -- those demonstration projects, grants, trust funds, programs, systems, formulas, guidelines, risk pools, etc. -- will result in at least as much, if not much more, bureaucratic expansion. So, while the precise number of new government bureaus and bureaucrats created by Obamacare can't be known now, what is known beyond any shadow of a doubt is that there will be more, much more, government."
Some Democrats have taken comfort in a recent tracking poll indicating that opposition to Obamacare has marginally decreased. I’d put that in the same category of self-delusion as America is a center-left country”,”demographic realignment means a permanent Democratic majority", and a Republican cannot win Ted Kennedy’s seat”. This is legislation that only looks good if you blur your vision and avert your eyes. The closer you look, the uglier it gets.

Make no mistake - the GOP will make sure everyone gets a good long rub-your-nose-in-it look between now and November. Every GOP candidate will be taking shots at Obamacare, and that is one slow fat rabbit to hunt. When you look at the chart and read the CRS report - the campaign ads write themselves. Since no Democratic Party candidate has any real idea of what is in the hairball they voted for – well – lets see what happens when GOP ads start putting it on the air 7×24 and they have to keep explaining the details to the voters.

The administration is not taking this lying down - in another triumph for "framing" over content, they've recruited Andy Griffith to lead the charge with a misleading, taxpayer funded, possibly illegal, pre-emptive advertising strike. After all, if you can't trust the Sheriff of Maybury - who can you trust?

UPDATE:
Results just in on a somewhat more reliable Obamacare sentiment poll taken on Tuesday - As goes Missouri - so goes the nation?

Divided and Balanced.™
Now that is fair.


Friday, July 30, 2010

ACLU: If you liked the Bush/Cheney Unitary Executive, you'll love the bigger and badder Obama Unitary Executive

This week the ACLU released a disturbing, but depressingly unsurprising report documenting the permanent enshrinement of the Bush/Cheney definition of the Unitary Executive by the Obama administration. With the tacit acceptance of the lapdog Democratic Congress, the balance of power between executive and other branches continues to shift heavily to the executive. The report is unsurprising because it was clear to anyone paying attention in the first few weeks of the Obama administration, that his campaign rhetoric of rolling back the Bush/Cheney power grab was just that - empty campaign rhetoric.

The ACLU report "Establishing a New Normal" is summarized here, and the full report linked here [PDF]. The report assesses the civil rights record of the first 18 months of the Obama administration across several civil rights categories and is well worth the read.

Excerpted here - a few of the report highlights lowlights:

TRANSPARENCY
"...the administration has fought to keep secret hundreds of records relating to the Bush administration’s rendition, detention, and interrogation policies. To take just a few of many possible examples, it has fought to keep secret a directive in which President Bush authorized the CIA to establish secret prisons overseas; the Combatant Status Review Transcripts in which former CIA prisoners describe the abuse they suffered in the CIA’s secret prisons... the administration has also fought to withhold information about prisoners held at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan. Indeed, the Obama administration has released less information about prisoners held at Bagram Air Base than the Bush administration released about prisoners held at Guantánamo."

TORTURE AND ACCOUNTABILITY
"The truth is that the Obama administration has gradually become an obstacle to accountability for torture. It is not simply that, as discussed above, the administration has fought to keep secret some of the documents that would allow the public to better understand how the torture program was conceived, developed, and implemented. It has also sought to extinguish lawsuits brought by torture survivors—denying them recognition as victims, compensation for their injuries, and even the opportunity to present their cases."

DETENTION
"Of far greater significance than the administration’s failure to meet its own one-year deadline is its embrace of the theory underlying the Guantánamo detention regime: that the Executive Branch can detain militarily—without charge or trial—terrorism suspects captured far from a conventional battlefield... we fear that if a precedent is established that terrorism suspects can be held without trial within the United States, this administration and future administrations will be tempted to bypass routinely the constitutional restraints of the criminal justice system in favor of indefinite military detention. This is a danger that far exceeds the disappointment of seeing the Guantánamo prison stay open past the one-year deadline. To be sure, Guantánamo should be closed, but not at the cost of enshrining the principle of indefinite detention in a global war without end."

TARGETED KILLING
"President Obama has authorized a program that contemplates the killing of suspected terrorists—including U.S. citizens —located far away from zones of actual armed conflict. If accurately described, this program violates international law and, at least insofar as it affects U.S. citizens, it is also unconstitutional... the government has failed to prove the lawfulness of imprisoning individual Guantánamo detainees in some three quarters of the cases cases that have been reviewed by the federal courts thus far, even though the government had years to gather and analyze evidence for those cases and had itself determined that those prisoners were detainable. This experience should lead the administration—and all Americans—to reject out of hand a program that would invest the CIA or the U.S. military with the unchecked authority to impose an extrajudicial death sentence on U.S. citizens and others found far from any actual battlefield."

MILITARY COMMISSIONS
"The administration’s embrace of military commission trials at Guantánamo, albeit with procedural improvements, has been a major disappointment. Instead of calling a permanent halt to the failed effort to create an entirely new court system for Guantánamo detainees, President Obama encouraged an effort to redraft the legislation creating the commissions and signed that bill into law... the existence of a second-class system of justice with a poor track record and no international legitimacy undermines the entire enterprise of prosecuting terrorism suspects. So long as the federal government can choose between two systems of justice, one of which (the federal criminal courts) is fair and legitimate, while the other (the military commissions) tips the scales in favor of the prosecution, both systems will be tainted..."

SPEECH AND SURVEILLANCE
"...over the last eighteen months, President Obama’s administration has defended the FISA Amendments Act in the same way that the last administration did so: by insisting that the statute is effectively immune from judicial review. Individuals can challenge the statute’s statute’s constitutionality, the administration has proposed, only if they can prove that their own communications were monitored under the statute; since the administration refuses to disclose whose communications have been monitored, the statute cannot be challenged at all. In some ways, the administration’s defense of the statute is as troubling as the statute itself. The Obama administration has been reluctant to yield any of the expansive surveillance powers claimed by the last administration. It has pushed for the reauthorization of some of the Patriot Act’s most problematic surveillance provisions."

WATCH LISTS
"...rather than reform the watch lists the Obama administration has expanded their use and resisted the introduction of minimal due process safeguards to prevent abuse and protect civil liberties. The Obama administration has added thousands of names to the No Fly List, sweeping up many innocent individuals. As a result, U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents have been stranded abroad, unable to return to the United States. Others are unable to visit family on the opposite end of the country or abroad. Individuals on the list are not told why they are on the list and thus have no meaningful opportunity to object or to rebut the government’s allegations. The result is an unconstitutional scheme under which an individual’s right to travel and, in some cases, a citizen’s ability to return to the United States, is under the complete control of entirely unaccountable bureaucrats relying on secret evidence and using secret standards."

CONCLUSION
"...if the Obama administration does not effect a fundamental break with the Bush administration’s policies on detention, accountability, and other issues, but instead creates a lasting legal architecture in support of those policies, then it will have ratified, rather than rejected, the dangerous notion that America is in a permanent state of emergency and that core liberties must be surrendered forever."
It is easy to point to the mind-numbing hypocrisy of the liberals and Democrats who railed with righteous indignation about the Bush/Cheney expansion of executive power, only to be complicit in our loss of liberty now. Their deafening silence, mild criticism, or rationalizations of the Obama administration's continued expansion of executive power and consequent institutionalization of the Bush/Cheney Unitary Executive speaks volumes. To be sure there are principled voices on the left that have consistently and clearly pointed to this Obama administration failure - notably Glenn Greenwald, and Jane Hamsher, among others:

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These voices are too few on the left.The first two years of the Obama administration represent a badly squandered opportunity to undo the damage done by the previous.

Much worse than the routine partisan hypocrisy, is the the complete abrogation of constitutional, checks, balances, and oversight responsibilities by our Senators and Representatives in Congress.

What happened to the soaring rhetoric of Senator Patrick Leahy - who campaigned passionately and relentlessy for the restoration of constitutional Habeas Corpus protections in 2006?

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: "It grieves me to think that three decades in this body that I stand here in the Senate, knowing that we’re thinking of doing this. It is so wrong. It is unconstitutional. It is un-American. It is designed to ensure the Bush-Cheney administration will never again be embarrassed by a United States Supreme Court decision reviewing its unlawful abuses of power. The Supreme Court said, 'You abused your power.' He said, 'Ha, we'll fix that. We have a rubber stamp, a rubber stamp, Congress, that will just set that aside and give us power that nobody, no king or anybody else set foot in this land, ever thought of having."
In 2007 this blog again supported the Leahy follow-on effort to restore Habeas Corpus:
"The gutting of the Great Writ of Habeas Corpus is the most notable outstanding assault on civil liberties. Senators Leahy and Spector have just introduced legislation to restore the right without ambiguity and DWSUWF recommends signing the petition to support their efforts. "
If you click on the petition linked in this quote you'll note the referenced campaign on the Leahy website no longer exits, replaced with a milquetoast request to send a letter to your senator requesting support. I guess it is just not as high a priority for Leahy if a Democrat has "power that nobody, no king or anybody else set foot in this land, ever thought of having." I expect Democrats will not be as sanguine about the expanded and institutionalized power of the Obama Unitary Executive when and if a Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin steps behind the wheel of this supercharged presidential machine.

The ACLU report focuses on civil liberties, but the accelerating accretion of executive power over our economic liberties has been equally egregious. I won't belabor the point in this post, but will simply point out the obvious. Regardless of what one thinks of the merits or politics of the legislation, it is beyond argument that Obamacare and Financial Regulation as passed, dramatically increase the power held by the executive branch. Congress granted a charter and vast power to faceless bureaucrats in the executive branch with the unfettered latitude to create and enforce broad new regulations over the healthcare and financial industry. Beyond these laws, even when operating without a firm legal foundation, this administration has also repeatedly demonstrated an eager willingness to push the the boundaries of presidential power.

You'd think, even allowing for partisanship, there would be enough institutional loyalty among our legislators to try to maintain some semblance of balance between the supposedly co-equal legislative and executive branches of government. It is simply not happening. In times of Single Party Rule (as we've had for eight of the last ten years) it is Party Über Alles, and the constitutional checks and balances envisioned by the founders between the executive and legislative branch just fade away. This was true with Republicans in 2000-2006, and it is true with Democrats now.

At the rate that the Senate and House have ceded power to the executive branch over the last decade, combined with the boot-licking deference most legislators offer to an executive of the same party, the legislature might as well vote itself out of existence. Perhaps they could be functionally replaced by a LegOlist e-mail listserv.

The only restraint on executive power today is the judiciary. This is why I have supported and will continue to support Obama nominations to the Supreme Court. My fervent hope is that the new justices will help form a SCOTUS majority that will pull hard on the reigns of the executive branch, declare many of the Bush/Obama administration actions (civil and economic) unconstitutional, and restore some semblance of the rule of law.

Regardless of what you may think of the political leanings of ACLU, they are fighting the good fight for our constitutional protections in the courts and they are doing it regardless of the party in power. They deserve our support. Beyond the courts, the only other way to restrain the extraordinary economic overreach and fiscal irresponsibility of this executive branch is to vote Republican in 2010 and divide this government.

Divided and Balanced.™
Now that is fair.


Sunday, July 25, 2010

Support Prop 19 - Marijuana prohibition hypocrisy is an expensive indulgence Californians can no longer afford.

Ripped from Tom Meyer

Joseph McNamara, former San Jose Police Chief, makes the case the for Prop 19 in the Sunday San Francisco Chronicle:

"I've seen the prohibition's terrible impact at close range. Like an increasing number of law enforcers, I have learned that most bad things about marijuana - especially the violence made inevitable by an obscenely profitable black market - are caused by the prohibition, not by the plant...

Experience and research show that the United States has among the world's harshest marijuana laws, yet our consumption rate leads the world and is twice that of the Netherlands, where cannabis sales to adults have been allowed for decades. Prohibition doesn't keep marijuana away from young people...

No one can dispute that marijuana already is widely available. At least 1 in 10 Californians consumed it in the past year, despite expensive government efforts. The November ballot's Proposition 19: The Regulate, Control and Tax Cannabis Act of 2010 acknowledges this reality and enables us to manage the cannabis market. Furthermore, taxing legal cannabis sales will provide steady funding for local governments that may help avoid layoffs of police and teachers...

When we stop wasting resources on processing hundreds of thousands of low-level possession cases, we'll be able to focus on keeping impaired drivers off the road, to concentrate on violent crime and on making people feel they and their children are safe from random gang and drug-related shootings. At work, employers will retain their rights to fire employees whose drug or alcohol use affects their productivity...

That perhaps brings up the most significant and least considered cost of criminalizing marijuana - turning people into criminals for behavior of which we disapprove, even though it doesn't take others' property or endanger their safety. It is worth remembering that our last three presidents, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, would have been stigmatized for life and never would have become presidents if they had been in the wrong place at the wrong time and been busted for pot during their reckless youthful days. Countless other Americans weren't so lucky. California voters have an opportunity in November to return reason to our state by decriminalizing adult use of marijuana."
For all practical purposes (except taxation and regulation) marijuana is already a de factco legal intoxicant in this state. It is also the biggest cash crop in the state. Decades and billions wasted on criminal enforcement has done exactly nothing to reduce or restrict it's use. More decades and billions spent on criminal enforcement will do exactly nothing except to waste more resources that are better spent elsewhere.

Yes, legalization will bring some problems. They are social and health problems, not criminal problems. They are manageable. Tax the weed and put programs in place to deal with social and health issues. Save our enforcement, judicial, and penal resources for dealing with real criminals.

Let's try something new in California.

Let's treat this issue honestly and like adults.

Let's treat one another like adults who can be trusted to be responsible for our own lives, as long as we do not harm one another.

Let's pass Prop 19.

Divided and Balanced.™
Now that is fair.


Saturday, July 24, 2010

Do you ever wonder how the rest of the world views our 2012 presidential selection process?


As I've noted before - the future of mainstream news is Taiwanese animation. This piece from NMA News in Taiwan explains our 2012 Presidential election pregame warm-ups to a Chinese audience.



What is truly frightening... Without understanding one word of Chinese, I completely understand every single frame in this story.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Gridlock Is Good

UPDATED: 15-July-10

Doyle McManus at the LA Times considers the challenges the GOP must face to press their advantage in November, and the challenges facing the country should they prevail and restore divided government:

A post-November congressional outlook: partisan gridlock
"But there's at least one potential problem for the Republicans: They haven't settled on a unified national message yet — and a quiet civil war is brewing over what, if anything, it should say. In one camp are House conservatives, led by Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), the House minority whip, who argue that Republicans won in 1994 because the Contract with America laid out by then-Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) articulated a coherent message around which candidates and voters could rally... Republicans, reportedly including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), worry about finding a tent large enough to include all GOP viewpoints. Trying to come up with a single platform, they believe, could be divisive, and the party should simply embrace a few broad issues such as cutting taxes and spending. We're already winning, they argue; why get too specific and give Democrats a clearer target to shoot at?"
While messaging is important, McManus overstates the significance of the problem. There is simply not a tent big enough to encompass the full spectrum of policy positions held by those opposed to our One Party Democratic Rule, including: fiscal conservatives; social conservatives; Republican partisans; libertarians; independents; and the tea party movement. But there does not need to be a unanimity of policy preferences for the GOP to prevail. All they need in November is a common objective and general agreement that a key issue takes precedence over all others. My take -
  • The objective is restoring balance and restraint in our federal government.
  • The key issue is restraining the insane growth of spending and curtailing the fiscal irresponsibility exhibited by the Democrats and this administration.
The Tea Party movement is a microcosm of the opposition coalition, willfully misunderstood and mis-characterized by Democratic Party partisans. So far, the Tea Party has shown considerable political acumen and understand that social issues must take a back seat to economic issues in this election. In a nutshell - "It's the spending, stupid" - (Thank you again James Carville).

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

Investors Love Divided Government -
Perception is Reality

The correlation (or not) of divided government, market performance, election expectations and investor psychology has been a recurring theme on DWSUWF since the beginning of this blog (see 2006, 2007, 2008 , 2009).

In yesterday's post, I quoted a couple of articles speculating on how markets might react should the Republicans retake either the House or Senate majority in the 2010 midterms. This was my comment on the articles:
"I am reluctant to link longer term market behavior to any policy or partisan mix in Washington. I've not seen any studies that show a believable, statistically significant correlation between long term market direction and Republican, Democratic, or divided governments. That said - in the short term it is less important whether there really is a correlation so much as whether investors believe there is a correlation. My sense is that most investors believe the stock market will benefit from Republicans taking control of either the House or Senate in the fall. With that expectation, a rising market could very well be a self-fulfilling prophecy."
Today, the Dow Jones rebounded 274 points, leaving many analysts scratching their heads after the unrelenting doom and gloom of the past few weeks. CNBC preempted Jim Cramer's show to broadcast a one hour special analyzing the day's market action. In this excerpt Ron Insana echoes that sentiment:


Money quote:
"All of a sudden there are some reports coming out saying the politicians are underestimating the possibility the Republicans take either one or both house of Congress. If that political uncertainty disappears and you get a Democratic President and a Republican Congress - that is the best combination for stock prices. It might also clear up the uncertainty that will allow corporations to hire people." - Ron Insana

Indeed it might. And like in the 2006 mid-terms - perhaps happy days will be here again (at least as far as the market is concerned).

The full unedited clip from CNBC is linked here.

Postscript:
Yes - Amanda Drury did, in fact, turn to the panel and ask "Double-D or not Double-D? What do you think?" I thought Insana was going to lose it.

Divided and Balanced.™
Now that is fair.


Tuesday, July 06, 2010

Carnival of Divided Government
Triginta Duodêvîgintî (XXXVIII)
Special Post Holiday Edition

Image ripped from Mike Sinclair

Welcome to the 38th edition of the Carnival of Divided Government - The Special Post-Independence Day Holiday Resolution To Really Get My Act Together With This Blog Edition.

Whatever

Yeah, I've done nothing on this blog for months and, yeah - I completely blew off the last edition of the Carnival. Moreover, I've run out of excuses. In the past I've blamed procrastination, too much fun, travel, even invoking the Hot Tub Libertarian Syndrome for my slovenly blogging habits. My only new excuse is a recent obsession with a local San Francisco political issue that has consumed a lot of blogging cycles on my other blog. What is it we so often hear the politicians say? - "Let us not be mired in the past. It is time to look forward."

Indeed. An important election is fast approaching. The 2010 election is easily as important as the 2006 mid-terms, and like the 2006 mid-terms, restoring divided government will be an important electoral consideration. It is time to step up my game with this blog. No. Really. I mean it this time.

Carnival of Divided Government

As explained in earlier editions, we have adopted Latin ordinal numeration to impart a patina of gravitas reflecting the historical importance of the series. In this the Carnival of Divided Government Triginta Duodêvîgintî (XXXVIII), as in all of the CODGOV editions, we select volunteers and draftees from the blogosphere and main stream media writing on the single topic of government divided between the major parties (leaving it to the reader to sort out volunteers from draftees). Consistent with this topic, the primary criteria for acceptance in the carnival is to explicitly use the words and/or concept of "divided government" in submitted posts. A criteria that, to our endless befuddlement, is ignored by many of the bloggers submitting posts, which sadly results in DWSUWF reluctantly ignoring their fine submissions.

First up, Morton Kondracke of CQ Politics takes a look at a number of recent polls and finds a conundrum - "Voters Are Unhappy but Optimistic - Why?":
"Congress’ approval rating is 22 percent, almost as low as the 20 percent that preceded the Democrats’ takeover in 2006 and the 33 percent that presaged the GOP takeover of 1994. Indeed, voters now marginally prefer that Republicans run the next Congress, by 45 percent to 43 percent. But asked about the parties, voters give a 9-point net negative rating to the Democrats, 35 percent to 44 percent, and a 12-point net negative to the GOP, 30 percent to 42 percent.The bottom line seems to be that an unhappy public is hoping that divided government will put the country back on the right track. But given the inability of Republicans and Democrats to agree on almost anything, there’s more reason to be pessimistic about the long term as well as the short."
Morton misses an important point. The inability of Republicans to agree with the Democratic agenda of the last two years, coupled with the prospect of divided government, is a reason for real optimism. As acrimonious as the debate may be, we get better legislation when everyone has a seat at the table. Sometimes it is best to trust the common sense instincts of the voters. Pundits don't get it, but voters do - divided government will put us back on the right track.

Amy Walter is also looking at polls and focus groups for the National Journal Hotline On Call and wondering about the impact of "Independents Souring On Obama":
"The Resurgent memo notes that these indies have "an equal dislike for both political parties," and some believe that "divided government would only lead to more bickering." But, notes van Lohuizen, while these voters may be persuaded to come back to Obama in '12, they are "pretty well lost" to the Democrats for this fall."
Of course divided government will lead to more bickering. That's a good thing. The advantage of divided government is that all voices are heard and have an impact on the legislation. When everyone has real power, the bickering leads to better and more fiscally responsible legislation - unlike the impotent bickering of the minority party during the Stimulus and Healthcare debates, resulting in fiscally irresponsible legislative hairballs. And if the GOP does manage to take one legislative house or the other in 2010 - this is one independent blogger who will indeed be coming back to Barack Obama in 2012. This blogger is no more interested in returning to One Party Republican Rule than he he is of continuing the current disastrous One Party Democratic Rule.

Digby at Hullabaloo is quoting Michael Tomsky and engages in some world class hand-wringing over the prospect of divided government in "It Will Never End":
"The real import of this story is this: If the Reps capture the House of Representatives this fall, they will have basically limitless power to keep these things churning forever, turning political horse-trading into potential crimes. They'll hold hearings, issue subpoenas, you name it." - Thomas

"Those who extol the virtues of divided government take heed. There won't just be legislative gridlock. There will be chaos. " - Digby
"Chaos" apparently now being defined by Digby as a state when the legislative branch does their job. Oversight of the executive branch is the job of the legislative branch in our system of constitutional checks and balances. It is a job that has been completely abrogated by this lap-dog Democratic Congress, just as it was abrogated by the lap-dog Republican Congress during the first six years of the Bush administration. As I recall, Digby was much less concerned about the "chaos" that might result from Congress doing their job in the run-up to the 2006 mid-terms. Funny that.

Metavirus blogging at Library Grape has a question: "Would Someone Who Loves Divided Government Vote for a Monkey?":
"I was pondering today the phenomenon of people who fetishize "divided government" ... I was pondering this because some of the otherwise smart people I know who are like this (you know who you are), are seriously saying that they will vote for a generic Republican this fall, simply in order to try to get us into "divided government". This is even the case where the person believes the GOP is generally bankrupt in terms of ethics, ideas, policy prescriptions, etc. At the end of all this pondering, I was left with a question. If the merits of the people you are voting for in order to make obeisance to the Gods of Divided Government are so unimportant, would you consider voting for party of trained monkeys?"
Whenever a partisan brings out a double barreled blast of full-on snark, sarcasm and derision when describing the divided government voting heuristic ("people who fetishize divided government..." "obeisance to the Gods of Divided Government...") it fills me with hope. It means the meme is getting traction and they feel compelled to (paraphrasing a recent unfortunate soundbite) launch nukes to kill ants. Pretty early for this kind of rhetoric. At the end of the post Metavirus asks for "enlightenment" about the divided government voting rationale. I'd oblige with my "Voting By Objective" post, except the tone of the post indicates a decided lack of sincerity. I think Metavirus' question is best answered with another question of equivalent intellectual heft - Would a partisan who believes the "GOP is generally bankrupt in terms of ethics, ideas, policy prescriptions, etc" vote for a Democratic Party Monkey?

Joseph Lazzaro is speculating at the Daily Finance about the impact of a potential divided government on investors in "Job Creation: Democrats Have Run Out of Time WithVoters.":
" ...independent voters represent the "swing" vote, depending on whether the party in power is doing a good job and is solving problems. And, as noted, due to the lack of progress at creating jobs, most independents will be voting for a Republican/Tea Party candidate in November. Other issues will play a role, but the lack of jobs and concern about their own job security will be foremost on Independents' minds.... Further, if enough Independents vote for Republicans, the GOP will regain control of Congress, creating a divided government. Some investors argue that divided government is good for the markets and the economy, as it can 'prevent Washington from doing anything' -- which some Americans view as a good thing. The reality, however, is that given the ideological canyon between today's polarized political parties, it's a prescription for gridlock."
Of course we'll get gridlock. But gridlock on needed legislation eventually ends, as it always does. And out of that gridlock we will get better, more fiscally responsible legislation than we are seeing now under One Party Democratic rule. And that is a good thing.

To Joseph's larger point, I am reluctant to link longer term market behavior to any policy or partisan mix in Washington. I've not seen any studies that show a believable, statistically significant correlation between long term market direction and Republican, Democratic, or divided governments. That said - in the short term it is less important whether there really is a correlation so much as whether investors believe there is a correlation. My sense is that most investors believe the stock market will benefit from Republicans taking control of either the House or Senate in the fall. With that expectation, rising market could very well be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Richard Lehman, writing at Forbes, makes exactly this point suggesting we "Sell Into Rallies And Thank Politicians":,
"Markets will also benefit from any perception that the Democrats will lose control of at least the House of Representatives. Markets like divided government because it means fewer surprises and fewer policy changes. Use any stock rallies in the next five months to raise some cash since opportunities always come along when market conditions are uncertain."
Probably good advice. But if the GOP begins to look like it has a realistic chance of taking control of one house, those opportunities may come along sooner rather than later.

Ron Replogle is a self-described "perplexed liberal" blogging at One Foot Outside of the Tent, writing a book, quoting Peggy Noonan, and speculating on whether Barack Obama would benefit from a GOP Congress while ruminating on "Liberalism and Limits":
"Even when it enjoys the support of an ideologically congenial congressional majority, a liberal administration lacks the institutional capacity to impose intelligent limits on its own redistributive aspirations. Having to reach an accommodation with an ideologically hostile opponent, as Clinton did with the Gingrich-led House, not only obliged, but enabled, him visibly to define his priorities. That doesn’t mean that what emerges from a divided government will necessarily be sensible public policy. But it will give a liberal administration the “full shape and meaning” that Noonan's looking for."
True - policy emerging from divided government will not necessarily be sensible public policy. It will also not necessarily be bad public policy. However, I do believe it will necessarily be better public policy than what we get out of either One Party Democratic Rule or One Party Republican Rule. In general I like what Ron is saying here and will be looking forward to his book when he gets it out. In the meantime, I will be supporting Republican candidates in the hope that a divided government will limit Barack Obama's liberalism. And if the GOP takes either legislative house, I will support Obama's re-election in 2012 to limit GOP social conservative ideology.

Matt Mazewski, blogging at the Conscience of a Centrist, worries that Obama is driving the opposition to an ideological extreme in "Moderate Conservatism Goes Mainstream":
"During the 1990's, the nation experienced a time of unprecedented peace and prosperity, largely as a result of divided government. Bill Clinton was forced to abandon some of his more ambitious liberal goals with the election of a Republican Congress in 1994, but so too were the Republicans compelled to lay aside their more ideologically-driven aspirations. Clinton vetoed welfare reform several times before signing a version he approved of, and deals were struck that, while far from perfect, represented true sacrifice in the name of bipartisanship. "
I think Matt is missing a key point in his thoughtful post. One does not need to put all the weight in the center to wind up with a balanced center. Consider the dumbbell - heavily weighted on the right and left, with almost no weight in the center, it nevertheless is balanced in the center. Think Clinton/Gingrich. Think Obama/McConnell instead of Obama/Reid -or- Obama/Boehner instead of Obama/Pelosi.

It is not often that one comes across an optimistic libertarian blog post. The tsunami of statism that engulfs us tends to drown out the most hopeful limited government advocates. Bonzai finds the silver lining in "Libertarian Evolution":
"There's a slowly evolving public recognition that government has to be limited, and that individual rights have to be protected -- thus the growth of true independents, people who are distrustful of, and unrepresented by, both parties... If my guess is right, voter turnout will be historically high this year and in 2012. We'll probably have a divided government going into 2011, and if I'm correct, there'll be pressure for government to govern in a more limited fashion because of the unconsciously-libertarian influence coming from the independents. I predict this will be the beginning of a change in direction and the beginning of the end for statism. America became lazy, too trusting of government, and too apathetic because of a sense of powerlessness, but the internet and protest movements have given the public confidence in its ability to create change."
That is a real double dose of optimism, prediciting a divided government in 2011 and the beginning of the end of corporate statism in America. Perhaps the key phrase here is the notion of the "unconsciously-libertarian independents". Predictable voting blocks are the difference in impotent ideas and political power. As I've outlined before, if the unconscious libertarian independent vote becomes self-aware and embraces an organizing principle that manifests some real political clout, perhap Bonzai's optimism is justified. As long as the bulk of the electorate remain polarized and balanced, even a small percentage of libertarian swing vote organized around a divided government voting heuristic will be enough for libertarians to display the biggest swinging political "hammer" in town.

Rojas at The Crossed Pond is feeling nostalgic for the Clinton/Gingrich divided government era in "Your Democratic Congress in Action":
"From a civil liberties perspective, unified government under the Democrats is every bit as bad as unified government under the Republicans. The difference now lies exclusively in the arena of federal involvement in the marketplace. I am becoming increasingly interested in replicating the late Clinton-era split: maybe we can have the Obama administration’s adult approach to foreign policy and willingness to check demented right-wing “compassionate conservatism” in combination with a Republican Congress that will laugh every time the administration pushes for a massive new entitlement."
Rojos is a friend of the blog and a member in good standing of of the 2008 Coalition of the Divided. With this post he has punched his ticket to the 2010 COD Club, which I will be posting Real Soon Now. It is astounding (and depressing) that after the hue and cry from the left about the power grab of the Bush/Cheney administration redefining the Unitary Executive, we have nothing but a deafening silence as the Obama administration continues to defend in the courts, push the boundaries, and increase the reach of executive branch power. I cannot think of a single example where this Democratic congress or administration has rolled back any of the executive branch overreach of the Bush /Cheney era since Obama came into office. The only hope for a more constitutionally circumscribed executive may be that Obama will nominate judges who will declare his actions unconstitutional.

Miscellany

Traditionally, we conclude this Carnival by including one "off-topic" submission, as a grudging acknowledgment and proxy for the many off-topic submissions received. Off-topic in this context meaning - no mentions of "divided government" or gridlock.

For this edition we offer Madeleine Begun Kane (who practically owns this spot) as she presents Oily Obstruction posted at Mad Kane's Political Madness:

Oily Obstruction (Limerick)
By Madeleine Begun Kane

Liability caps for a spill
Would be raised by the Democrats’ bill.
But Sen. Lisa says “No!”
She’s protecting each co
That drills oil, despite all that they kill.

They’d be hurt by such law, she maintains.
Such indifference to other folks’ pains!
Who will cover the bills
For the victims of spills?
It seems oil cos have Lisa in chains.

Although always amusing I don't often agree with Madeleine's liberal poetic stylings, but this gem is an exception. There is a difference between fiscal conservatism and corporate statism. The absurdly low liability cap provided by our government to this corporate giant is exactly what enabled BP's criminal negligence in the gulf oil disaster.

With that, we''ll wrap up this edition. Thanks for stopping by, and thanks for all of the submissions (on-topic or not).

We intend (road to hell notwithstanding) to pick up the Carnival pace in this election year as divided government content is on the increase. However, I am beginning to think that the Carnival form has seen its day as I am relying more on draftees than volunteers in these compilations. I suspect the blog will better serve the cause by posting these divided government links and comments individually as they occur on a more timely basis. For the time being, we'll try both, so look for the next edition of The Carnival of Divided Government Triginta Undêvîgintî (XXXIX)- Special Dog Days of Summer on or about 8-15-2010. Submit your blog article at carnival of divided government using our carnival submission form.

Divided and Balanced.™
Now that is fair.



Carnival of Divided Government

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

If Ignorance is Bliss, William Greider is Ecstatic...

...and he insists on sharing his joy with us in The Nation.

Goodbye Keynes, Hello Hoover
The first fundamental failure of Keynesian economics occurred forty years ago during the Vietnam War when the economy was overheating but the political system failed to take the corrective steps that would restrain price inflation—that is, raise taxes and reduce federal spending. The decade of economic stagnation that followed became a central factor in discrediting both liberalism and the Democratic Party.

Wrong. Despite popular mythology, Keynesian economics actually first failed during Keynes' own lifetime, back in the Great Depression. More accurately, the rather selectively-interpreted and extremely cherry-picked tactics scalpeled out of Keynes' theoretical work failed, in large part because of that selective interpretation and cherry-picking. And among the first to say so was Keynes himself, who noted that his prescription was for short-term ameliorative action, not long-term doctrine. But I digress...back to Greider:
We are now witnessing a second great failure of the doctrine John Maynard Keynes devised for managing a healthy economy. This time, Washington faces the opposite problem—a starkly underperforming economy in which 10 percent of the workforce are without jobs and income. Yet the President and Democratic Congress, spooked by the swollen federal deficits, are unwilling to do what Keynes prescribed in these circumstances—pump up federal spending enormously and run even larger budget deficits in order to force-feed a stronger recovery.

One can gain a solid grasp of Greider's own political stance simply by noting what he (along with most other liberals) leaves out of the classic Keynesian prescription for recession -- cutting taxes. Yet Greider and his ideological cohorts have no problem whatsoever remembering the "raise taxes" part of the Keynesian price inflation prescription.

Keynesian theory has many empirically demonstrable flaws and it's not my intent to begin a long dissection of them*. My point here is highlighting the willful selective ignorance of those socialist/statist ideologues who want more government and more more spending and (at root) more more MORE state control over individuals with the concomittant loss of freedom that implies, and use Keynes as their crutch. Even dedicated Keynesian Paul Krugman (who really is a brilliant economist when he's not being a complete political-media whore for "progressivism") has had some things to say about Greider's utter lack of critical-thinking skills, at least in the field of economics.

So when you hear ideologues tossing derogatory sneers at "Keynesianism" and "Monetarism" and "Libertarianism" and such, keep in mind that the overwhelming majority of them, like Greider, haven't got the intellectual foundation to know WTF they're talking about. Or even the ability to grasp that they don't have that foundation.

[*--For a much more balanced and empirical rather than ideological view of the current state of our economic situation and the failed applications of Keynesian theory thereto, N. Gregory Mankiw's recent article in National Affairs provides an excellent start for the intelligent layperson. Pay particular attention to his thoughts on the disparities between theoretical models and observed reality -- they have major applications in other areas, such as climate "science."]

Sunday, June 06, 2010

How's That Stimulus Coming?

About as I predicted.

Stimulus aside, we're not seeing increase in jobs
The economy will kick into gear again when the private sector begins adding jobs. Investors were spooked Friday because it isn't doing that yet. Of the 413,000 jobs added in May, just 41,000 of them were in the private sector, barely a fifth of what economists expected, and many of those jobs were temporary ones. Speaking of which, virtually all the public-sector job increases were the result of temporary workers hired by the U.S. Census Bureau...

...The Keynesians who advocate for bigger stimulus spending to avoid a double-dip recession are beginning to bump up against the limits of their argument that deficit spending can lead the economy back to a growth cycle. The stimulus spending has to show some private-sector results. We can't keep pointing to the census workers, teachers and other public-sector jobs that have been "kept" thanks to stimulus money.

This really isn't rocket science or brain surgery. The "stimulus" bill was, as I repeatedly said, mostly aimed at shoring up government and union (and public-sector union) jobs, NOT at "stimulating" the private economy that actually generates the wealth that pays for all that government. While private-sector employment crumbled, government employment barely budged at state and local levels, and actually grew at the federal level.

Shoring up government at the expense of the private sector is not stimulus. It's an attempt to permanently expand government. And it won't boost the economy. Quite the opposite. It suppresses growth, as we're seeing. When we do begin to see positive recovery in the private sector, it won't be because of government "stimulus," but in spite of it.

Monday, May 03, 2010

A Mad Tea Party

There is an undeniable "Alice in Wonderland" quality to Democratic spin on the meaning and nature of the Tea Party movement.
"This piece of rudeness was more than Alice could bear: she got up in great disgust, and walked off; the Dormouse fell asleep instantly, and neither of the others took the least notice of her going, though she looked back once or twice, half hoping that they would call after her...`At any rate I'll never go there again!' said Alice as she picked her way through the wood. `It's the stupidest tea-party I ever was at in all my life!'
- Lewis Carroll - Alice's Adventures in Wonderland
It is very very important to Alice Democrats that the Tea Party not make sense and be of no consequence. As long as the Tea Party is of no consequence, it is perfectly reasonable to just turn their back and walk away. But... why do they keep looking over their shoulder? Perhaps the nagging fear of what it means to Democrats if - just if - it is a legitimate movement. Best not to think of that.

So we are treated to endless and increasingly creative efforts to demonize and characterize the Tea Party movement in a negative light. The left framing of the Tea Party has the distinct smell of "lets throw everything at the wall and see what sticks" desperation. We are simultaneously lectured on why the movement is both extremely dangerous and completely unimportant. The framing runs the gamut of "phony populists" (ably deconstructed by Tully in a recent post), Fox News controlled puppets, neo-Nazi radicals, a privileged country club set, rednecks, terrorists, a side show, stupid people, racists, affluent educated elitists, an over-hyped media construct, bullies, fear-mongers, illegitimate, animals, unimportant, dangerous, kooks, seditious, disconnected from reality, fascists, closet Arizonans and worst of all - Republicans. No matter that many of these labels are mutually exclusive and impossible to be true at the same time. Democrats have taken the White Queen's advice to heart:
Alice laughed. "There's no use trying," she said. "One can't believe impossible things."

"I dare say you haven't had much practice," said the queen. "When I was your age, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."
I'm not saying that libertarians, conservatives and Republicans are any less self-serving or better at articulating exactly what the Tea Party movement is about, but at least they are not aggressively and childishly insulting. I mean, is it possible that the tiresome epithet "teabagger" can still be considered edgy and amusing among the cognoscenti in the progressive echo chamber? Apparently so - watch Chris Matthews split a gut laughing at Bill Maher's comedic "teabagger" genius:


Would the GOP love to co-opt the movement? Yes, certainly. But - just guessing here - I suspect that being wooed by Republicans feels better to Tea Partiers than being spit in the face by Democrats.

Frankly, I don't think the hodge-podge of interests that make up the Tea Party movement is all that hard to figure out. It is a group that self-selects by prioritizing one issue above all others - federal spending and the deficit. Get past that issue, and there is little policy agreement among the Tea Party factions. But that does not really matter, because in 2010 they agree one issue trumps all others - It's the spending, stupid.

In contrast to the disparagement from the left, the Tea Party is getting a lot of advice from the right. Some of it is pretty good.

Richard Viguerie - a self-described old-school conservative has this "advice for the tea party":
  • Be independent
  • Go on a policy offensive.
  • Pressure institutions to change.
  • Get involved, then stay involved.
  • Avoid the third-party trap.
"Most important, tea partiers must remain distinct from both political parties. The GOP would like nothing better than to co-opt the movement and control the independent conservatives who are its members. But we must keep in mind that perhaps the single biggest mistake of the conservative movement was becoming an appendage of the Republican Party."
John Samples, author of the "The Struggle to Limit Government" put his "advice to tea partiers" in a video:


Ed Morrissey distills Sample's advice, and dissents:
  • Republicans aren’t always your friends.
  • Some tea partiers like big government.
  • Democrats aren’t always your enemies.
  • Smaller government demands restraint abroad.
  • Leave social issues to the states
"Democrats may not always be opponents to Tea Party instincts, but their current leadership is completely antithetical to those values. That is why endorsing Democrats for Congress in this cycle, even conservative Democrats like Walt Minnick in Idaho, is probably a bad idea. If Democrats keep their majority in November, Nancy Pelosi and her leadership team will keep control of the committee chairs and the agenda in the House. The only way to get rid of that leadership is to elect people other than Democrats to Congress this year, and that means Republicans."
Sample replies to Morrissey:
"I said in the video that Tea Party people should recognize that “Democrats are not always the enemy.” Morrissey rightly says I should not talk about enemies in domestic politics. He adds that the current House Democratic caucus does not deserve support because its leaders favor expanding government. He’s right. Divided government is what we need now. However, I had in mind the more centrist Democrats that supported the tax and spending cuts of 1981 and the tax reform of 1986. I am urging Tea Party people to avoid becoming too partisan. Perhaps some of them will still be in Congress in 2011."
Sample is right. So is Morrisey and Viguerie. The Tea Party must be independent of both political parties, and they need to vote straight Republican in the 2010 mid-terms.

The Tea Party will never be a majority and, at best, can hope to field a 6%-12% general election swing vote in a largely polarized partisan electorate. But that is enough to shape the political landscape if the movement can organize into a predictable voting block. To do that, they need an organizing principle. I have a suggestion - voting consistently for divided government. This is a voting heuristic that speaks directly to the Tea Party's signature issue - out of control federal spending. Divided government has been shown by economists, political scientists, and historians to limit the growth of spending. and the growth of the state.

My advice to the Tea Party, is the same widely ignored advice I proffered to politically impotent libertarians as a prescription for their embarrassing electile dysfunction. Paraphrasing from that post:
What is needed, is an organizing principle that is so obvious, so logical, and so clear-cut, that no leadership is needed, no parties are needed, no candidates are needed, and no infrastructure is needed. Ideally it is this easy: You think about the principle, and you know how to vote. That organizing principle exists. It is voting for Divided Government. It is absolutely clear-cut and easy to understand. Divided Government is documented by Niskanen et.al. to work in a practical real-world manner to restrain the growth of the state. As a voting strategy it can be implemented immediately. More importantly, it can collectively be implemented individually regardless of Tea Party faction and independent of major political party leadership.

Whatever the percentage of the electorate that the Tea Party represents, whether it is 9% or 20%, if they vote as a block for divided government, they immediately become the brokers of an evenly split partisan electorate. They arguably become the single most potent voting block in the country, specifically because they are willing to vote either Democratic or Republican as a block. Specifically because they are not fused to one party or the other.
The divided government vote in 2010 is a straight Republican vote for the Senate and House of Representatives. If the Republican Party succeeds in retaking the majority in either legislative branch, the divided government vote in 2012 is to re-elect Barack Obama. Will the Tea Party take my advice? Go ask Alice:
"One day Alice came to a fork in the road and saw a Cheshire cat in a tree. Which road do I take?" she asked. "Where do you want to go?" was his response. "I don't know," Alice answered. "Then," said the cat, "it doesn't matter." - Lewis Carroll - Alice's adventures in Wonderland

Divided and Balanced.™
Now that is fair.