Friday, December 28, 2012

Hagel for Defense

Chuck Hagel in Vietnam
I'd like to think that a nomination of Republican Chuck Hagel for Secretary of the Defense would be considered on its merits. I'd like to think his nomination would be deliberated in the Senate where his record, his qualifications and the policies he advocates would be subject to scrutiny in a public confirmation hearing. We may never get the chance to see that hearing. After the administration floated a trial balloon indicating that Hagel was on the SECDEF short list, the very same neocons who brought us the Iraq War launched a smear campaign as a preemptive strike to head off the nomination. Robert Wright at The Atlantic sums it up:

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

12 Election Observations For 12/12/12

FOUR MORE YEARS! FOUR MORE YEARS!

The Dividist cannot let this date slip by without a post. We were out of the country in November, watching the election unfold from afar. Since then we neglected the blog. But we are back now, we have no excuses, and using this semi-mystical date for motivation, time to weigh in on what the election wrought.  Here for your reading enjoyment on 12/12/12 - a dozen observations on the election just past, sprinkled with some predictions for the election to come.

Sunday, November 04, 2012

Obama's been a terrible President. I voted for him anyway. Here's why.

 The Dividist casts his not so secret ballot.

Last week the Dividist walked into City Hall and cast an early ballot. He voted to reelect Barack Obama.  In this post we will strive to emulate Nate Silver and offer this simple explanation:

The Dividist voted for Barack Obama to ensure the federal government remains divided between the two major parties with each controlling at least one branch of the government.

And now, the somewhat more complicated explanation:

Friday, October 26, 2012

Neocon Stooge Endorses Obama


As he did in 2008, Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama for President. John McCain is not any happier about his endorsement than when Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama for President over John McCain four year ago.   It is an open question whether the endorsement will sway any votes, but one should not underestimate the salesmanship of Colin Powell. Recall he was very persuasive in his 2003 presentation to the United Nations General Assembly:
"My colleagues, every statement I make today is backed up by sources, solid sources. These are not assertions. What we're giving you are facts and conclusions based on solid intelligence... Indeed, the facts and Iraq's behaviour show that Saddam Hussein and his regime are concealing their efforts to produce more weapons of mass destruction... Leaving Saddam Hussein in possession of weapons of mass destruction for a few more months or years is not an option. Not in a post-September 11th world."
Regardless, the Dividist is delighted with Powell's endorsement. This endorsement means we can take the same post we wrote four years ago, and run it again with only minor edits.

Monday, October 22, 2012

Live Blogging the Live Bloggers
Final Presidential Debate
Binder Full of Bloggers Edition

UPDATED: 23-Oct-2012

Welcome to the The Final Presidential Debate of the 2012 Election and the latest edition in the continuing saga of "Live Blogging the Live Bloggers blogging the Debates!"   The Dividist fondly recalls when he conceived this series to cover the first 2008 Republican debate, lo those many years ago, and first asked the question:
"There are plenty of live-bloggers covering the debate tonight, but who is covering the live bloggers? The Dividist rushes in where other, more sensible bloggers, fear to tread."
Tonight's debate is scheduled for 8:00 PM EST at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida. But that is not important. This will be the last debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney before the election two weeks from now. That is not important. It is going to be focused on foreign policy. Not important.  The second debate went to President Obama on points. The first debate was forfeited to Romney when the President failed to show up due to a scheduling conflict.  The VP debate happened in there somewhere and Joe Biden smiled a lot. Tonight is the rubber match. None of that is important. The debate will be competing directly with the 7th game of the National League Championship Game between the San Francisco Giants and the St. Louis Cardinals (Currently no score after one inning).  Not important.

What is important is that my Chicago Bears are playing the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football during the debate.  So... in aggregate we can expect no one in California, Michigan, Illinois, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, nor any real NFL or MLB fans will be watching this debate.What is wrong with these people? Can they not read a football schedule?   Do they not want people to watch these debates?  Wait... I wonder...

FULL DISCLOSURE:  The Dividist will be pretending to watch the debate, will try to live blog the live bloggers blogging the debate, but will really be watching the Bears game. So this is likely to be more lame than usual. Proceed at your own risk.

As always, we select a variety of bloggers from across the political spectrum,and attempt to live blog their live blog efforts. I don't know who we will include, in the past we've used used  Daily Kos from the left, VodkaPundit or HotAir from the right, look to either Reason or Cato for a libertarian point of view and the Moderate Voice, and/or Donklephant as a centrist blog.  Andrew Sullivan is  a reliable live-blogger, as is Chris Cillizza's Fix. Since this one has a foreign policy focus, we'll also monitor the Economist.

If past is prologue we will likely guess wrong about which blogs to monitor and will be scrambling once things get started. Refresh your browsers for latest content once the debate is underway. Because of the derivative nature of this enterprise, I do run quite a bit behind the actual debate. Just setting expectations to lower the bar.

The Dividist has not bothered to look up the polling on the expectations game.   The President has all the experience in Foreign policy in this debate. He killed Osama Bin-Laden. The expectation is there is no way he can lose a foreign policy debate. So he probably will.

Da Bears & Da Candidates have taken the field ...

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Live Blogging the Live Bloggers
2nd Presidential Debate
Crowleytown Hall Edition


Welcome to the 2012 Election Edition - 2nd Presidential Debate in the continuing saga of "Live Blogging the Live Bloggers blogging the Debates!" 

The Dividist fondly recalls when he conceived this series to cover the first 2008 Republican debate, lo those many years ago, and first asked the question:
"There are plenty of live-bloggers covering the debate tonight, but who is covering the live bloggers? The Dividist rushes in where other, more sensible bloggers, fear to tread."
Actually I never said that. Although I am pretty sure I said something similar. Just don't want to be fact-checked on this.

Whew. It's the hump debate. As soon as it starts we are halfway through the final four debate schedule. So far, so good. The first debate was forfeited to  Romney when the President failed to show up due to a scheduling conflict.  The VP debate went to Biden on points, but he did not recover the momentum lost by the Democrats after the first. On to round three. This debate will be a Town Hall format, where the questions will be asked by semi-random voters (only God can make a truly random voter), and moderated by Candy Crowley.

The Memorandum of Understanding between the campaigns specified that the moderator will not coach or follow-up on the questions from the audience. Candy Crowley will be ignoring the MOU.

Hillary Clinton has Barack Obama's back, stabs Susan Rice in same, and admits she is indeed the Secretary of State.

Mr. President,Can I borrow that blade? Susan... I have something for you.
Credit where it is due. The single best decision that Barack Obama made in his entire presidency was to appoint Hillary Clinton Secretary of State. It is entirely possible that single decision saved Obama's Presidency and secured his reelection to a second term.

In an interview with CNN reporter Elise Labott, Hillary Clinton took full responsibility for the inadequate security deployed at the Benghazi Embassy.

"Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Monday tried to douse a political firestorm over the deadly assault on a U.S. diplomatic mission in Libya, saying she's responsible for the security of American diplomatic outposts. 
"I take responsibility," Clinton said during a visit to Peru. "I'm in charge of the State Department's 60,000-plus people all over the world, 275 posts. The president and the vice president wouldn't be knowledgeable about specific decisions that are made by security professionals. They're the ones who weigh all of the threats and the risks and the needs and make a considered decision."... 
"I take this very personally," Clinton said. "So we're going to get to the bottom of it, and then we're going to do everything we can to work to prevent it from happening again, and then we're going to work to bring whoever did this to us to justice."
The State Department is responsible for ensuring adequate security for State Department facilities and personnel.  Those decisions are made in the State Department not in the White House. Hillary Clinton leads the State Department.  She is simply stating the obvious.  Did she personally see and deny the specific request for additional security at the Benghazi consulate?  Probably not. It doesn't matter. A bad decision was made in the organization she leads and it resulted in the death of  an American diplomat and three other Americans.  It's not okay to say we were just unlucky. It's not okay to say "shit happens". She is responsible and she knows it.  She did the right thing.  She said the only thing she could say. Assigning ultimate responsibility for the security lapse was not hard to figure out. All it took was an organization chart.

The only thing surprising about her statement is that we should find it surprising. The only thing remarkable about her statement, is that we find it so newsworthy.  Perhaps this is simply a reflection of the state of politics in the US today.  It's "Breaking News!" that an important political leader publicly accepts responsibility for their area of responsibility.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Live Blogging the Live Bloggers
2012 Vice President Debate
Mystical 10-11-12 Edition


Welcome to the 2012 Vice President Edition in the continuing saga of "Live Blogging the Live Bloggers blogging the Debates!"

The Dividist fondly recalls when he conceived this series to cover the first 2008 Republican debate, lo those many years ago, and first asked the question:
"There are plenty of bloggers covering the debate live tonight, but is anyone covering the live bloggers? The Dividist rushes in where other, more sensible bloggers, fear to tread."
After last week's debate,  I don't think anyone will ever again ask the question whether Presidential debates matter.  Now Vice Presidential debates - that's another question. The jury is still out on that one.  After last weeks debacle, interest is high for this - the one and only VP debate prior to the election, now less that a month away.

It'll be interesting to see if it garners the 67 million audience of the Presidential debate. There is competition tonight - an NFL Football game between the Steelers and Titans, and two MLB playoff games, The Yankees vs. Orioles and  Athletics vs. Tigers. So it is safe to assume that Pennsylvania, Tennessee, New York, Maryland, Michigan, and Northern California will not be watching the debate. There are a few swing states in there. No matter. The Dividist is on the case.

As always, we select a variety of bloggers from across the political spectrum,and attempt to live blog their live blog efforts. I don't know who we will include, in the past we've used used  Daily Kos from the left, VodkaPundit or HotAir from the right, look to either Reason or Cato for a libertarian point of view and the Moderate Voice, and/or Donklephant as a centrist blog.  Andrew Sullivan is  a reliable live-blogger, as is Chris Cillizza's Fix and CNBC will be tweeting.

If past is prologue we will likely guess wrong about which blogs to monitor and will be scrambling once things get started. Refresh your browsers for latest content once the debate is underway. Because of the derivative nature of this enterprise, I do run quite a bit behind the actual debate. Just setting expectations to lower the bar. As usual - expectations are a big part of the game. Expectations for Biden are low. Expectations for Ryan are high.  That gives Biden an edge. A big edge.

======
PREGAME

Chris Cillizza's Fix: "Unlike last week’s debate, where large majorities of people thought beforehand that President Obama would wipe the floor with Mitt Romney (that SO didn’t happen), the expectations are much less tilted toward one candidate for this debate."

CNBC: "Thursday night's debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Paul Ryan has mushroomed in importance since Mitt Romney's strong showing in the first presidential faceoff. "

The Dish - Sullivan:"Gallup claims that veep debates don't usually influence voters. Joseph Cera comes to a different conclusion. Meanwhile, Silver believes that Biden could help shrink the enthusiasm gap "

Daily Kos: "One of tonight's agreed upon debate rules is, allegedly, that the vice president isn't supposed to be referring to his opponent as "Congressman Ryan." Instead, he is to refer to the Republican's boy genius only as "Mister Ryan.

Vodka Pundit - Stephen Green:"Will there be drunkblogging of tonight’s veep debate? Does Joe Biden sometimes accidentally put on his suit jacket upside down?"

Stinque: "In this corner, a Ripped Filthy Liar whom we suspect has a glass jaw. And in this corner, a Hairplug-Studded Veteran whose best moments remind you of a vérité Curb Your Enthusiasm. We have no idea what to expect during tonight’s Veep Debate Open Thread/Mixed Mental Arts Competition. We just know it ain’t gonna be normal."

Reason Hit and Run: "Tonight’s big question comes down to this: Who gets to follow in the footsteps of such political bright lights as Dan Quayle, Al Gore, and, yes, Joe Biden to become the next hapless understudy to the leader of the free world? "

DIVIDIST - Expectations for Biden are low, but he consistently kicked ass in the 2008 Dem primary debates – always performing better than both either Obama or Clinton, and certainly better than Palin. Expectations for Ryan are high, but he has never been tested at this level with this kind of intense national media scrutiny. I don’t expect him to pull a Palin, but he is perfectly capable of blowing it with a major gaffe. Obviously, Biden can’t win it for Obama, but I expect he’ll stop the bleeding, change the narrative and tee it up for Obama in the rematch next week.

We'll be updating when the debate starts in about 5 minutes. Beer me.

And we are off....

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Bill Clinton Rips Mitt Romney For Being Too Much Like Bill Clinton

Bill Clinton, arguably the most popular pol in America today, is stumping with and for Obama on the campaign trail this week. From the LA Times:
"Nearly a week after President Obama stopped his campaign's momentum with a lackluster debate performance, former President Clinton sought Tuesday to help him recover by offering a withering new critique of Mitt Romney. "I had a different reaction to that first debate than a lot of people did," Clinton told nearly 2,000 supporters at a campaign rally for Obama and other Democrats. "I thought, 'Wow, here's old moderate Mitt. Where ya been, boy?' "
Team Obama has turned to Bill Clinton as they continues to struggle with the most predictable and telegraphed "pivot to the center" in the history of politics.  Many of the President's supporters are adopting the "Moderate Mitt" label that Clinton uses here as a pejorative, and outlining Romney's new moderate positions to prove that he has changed positions. Think Progress is a case in point:
"In a last ditch effort to win over undecided moderates, Mitt Romney is finally fulfilling his adviser’s prediction that he would become the “Etch-a-Sketch” candidate. During the first presidential debate, Romney started reversing positions he espoused all year while he was trying to placate the Republican base. Since the debate, he’s continued to shed his hard-line stances that alienated moderates. Here are 5 examples..."
It may or may not be "last ditch", but it appears to be working for Romney. Does it not occur to Obama supporters that promoting this moniker and Romney's new moderate positions make it much more likely that undecideds, centrists, independents, and moderates will vote for him? That the fact that he changes positions to adjust to the prevailing political winds and public polls is exactly what they want to see in a President?

Sunday, October 07, 2012

Democrats shocked! shocked! to learn that Romney would pivot to the center!

Reaction to last week's debate continued to dominate the news cycle over the weekend, even overshadowing the drop in the unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.  Despite the clear Team Obama preference for moving on to other topics, any other topic, it was left leaning publications, pundits, and satirists that kept the debate story front and center.

Next week's New Yorker is indicative. As we would expect from this publication, the articles between the covers are generally sympathetic to the President. Example - David Remnick:
"The President has always been someone who takes the truth seriously and has a great faith in the American people and their ability to handle big ideas,” Burns said. “He doesn't patronize them. He uses the campaign as an educative process. He wants to win but also wants to be clear about his ideas…. He took complex ideas like Medicare and the debt and tried to explain it to people so they can understand them while at the same time not being patronizing. And he is doing this with an opponent who is completely dissembling on every issue!”
Regardless of the treatment inside the issue, the cover is brutal. Particularly in the reference to the empty chair last seen during Clint Eastwood's GOP Convention performance.


Wednesday, October 03, 2012

Live Blogging the Live Bloggers
2012 Presidential Election Debate
Round One


Finally. With one month to the election, with voting already underway, tonight we hear the first presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Welcome to the 2012 Presidential Election Edition in the continuing saga of "Live Blogging the Live Bloggers blogging the Debates!"

The Dividist fondly recalls when he conceived this series to cover the first 2008 Republican debate, lo those many years ago, and first asked the question:
"There are plenty of bloggers covering the debate live tonight, but is anyone covering the live bloggers? The Dividist rushes in where other, more sensible bloggers, fear to tread."
Our productivity has tapered off  this year. We simply could not  maintain the pace  or interest through the never ending Republican debate marathon.

Now, there is some question whether this exercise, or even live blogging itself, makes any sense in the era of facebook and twitter stream of consciousness. No matter.  The Dividist is on the case.

As always, we select a variety of bloggers from across the political spectrum,and attempt to live blog their live blog efforts. I don't know who we will include, in the past we've used used  Daily Kos from the left, VodkaPundit or HotAir from the right, look to either David Weigel, Reason or Cato for a libertarian point of view and the Moderate Voice, and/or Donklephant as a centrist blog.  Andrew Sullivan is usually a reliable live-blogger, as is Chris Cillizza's Fix and CNBC will be tweeting.

Saturday, September 01, 2012

Republican National Convention, Romney, Ryan, Rubio, Rice and The Empty Chair

Rorschach Test? Or replacement for that faded poster on your wall?

One down. One to go.  Some thoughts on the GOP Convention just ended before we plunge headlong into the Dems Convention next week.

Improbably, the moment that will define this convention for all time occurred in the very last hour as an 82 year old iconic actor spent 12 minutes talking to a empty chair.  If you didn't see it you can catch the act here, and reactions everywhere.   Truth be told, I enjoyed the spontaneity and cringe inducing weirdness of it all. The perfectly polished, precision timed, everyone scripted, stay on message regimentation of the convention up to that point had my eyes glassing over and pretty much drained all interest in the proceedings. Clint's improv brought me back, although I suspect I am in the minority with that perspective.  The president punctuated the event with his own rejoinder in the form of an amusing tweet:

That should have been the end of it, but of course - this being American politics at it's finest - we're just getting started. 

Monday, August 20, 2012

It's unsustainable, stupid.


This graphic compares U.S. debt and deficit with the dysfunctional Eurozone economies.  Interestingly, only Greece is worse than we are vis-a-vis the dual metrics on the chart.  We tie with Ireland. Other than that, we are worse than all of industrial Europe.  If our politicians across the political spectrum agree that our fiscal debt situation is unsustainable and potentially catastrophic, and they do, should this not be a critical issue in the presidential campaign?

In the 1992 presidential campaign, Jame Carville's motivational meme "It's the economy, stupid." perfectly encapsulated the key issue of the election.   The beauty of the exhortation was that it focused the Clinton campaign staff on the one issue that could and would make a difference in the electoral outcome. He correctly identified the single most important issue on the minds of the electorate and it also exposed the single greatest weakness of the George HW Bush administration. The Bush campaign seemingly never understood what the election was really about. They touted foreign policy triumphs and their consequent lack of focus on the domestic economy reinforced the perception that President Bush was out of touch with American voters.

In every election since, campaign strategists, analysts, pundits and bloggers have attempted to reprise Carville's insight with a similar construct for the election at hand. Your loyal blogger is no exception.  In 2006 and 2008 the Dividist was convinced the election was about one thing:  "It's the war, stupid."   True enough in 2006. Not so much in 2008.  In 2008 "It's George Bush, stupid." was enough to win the election for Barack Obama. Even though GWB was not running, it was sufficient to tar McCain with that brush. The public sentiment was to punish GWB and the Party he rode in on.  2010 was a different story.  In 2010 - "It's the spending, stupid." carried the day.

Which brings us to 2012.  After winning a battle, generals are reluctant to abandon the very tactics that prevailed in a victorious campaign.  Despite the setback in 2010,  Axelrod and the Obama campaign strategists continue to fight that 2008 war in 2012. It's a mistake. Things have changed. Today there is a far greater awareness and focus on our profligate and unsustainable deficit spending.

Submitted for your consideration, the 2012 Carville election snowclone:

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Carnival of Divided Government LV
Quînque et Quînquâgintâ
Special Paul Ryan's Express Edition

 "Romney unites Republicans and Democrats." - Jon Stewart

Welcome to the 55th edition of the Carnival of Divided Government - the Special "Paul Ryan's  Express" Edition. This was intended to be the special "Dog Days of Summer" Edition, but the presumptive Republican nominee for President chose this week to make an early announcement of his selection for Vice President.   Apropos to our dividist theme,  conservatives and liberals embraced the selection of Congressman Paul Ryan for diametrically opposed rationales. Jon Stewart and the Daily Show nail it:


Carnival of Divided Government LV

As explained in earlier editions, we have adopted Latin ordinal numeration to impart a patina of gravitas reflecting the historical importance of the series. In this the Carnival of Divided Government LV (Quînque et Quînquâgintâ), as in all of the CODGOV editions, we select volunteers and draftees from the blogosphere and main stream media writing on the single topic of government divided between the major parties (leaving it to the reader to sort out volunteers from draftees).

Consistent with this topic, the primary criteria for acceptance in the carnival is to explicitly use the words and/or concept of "divided government" in submitted posts. A criteria that, to our endless befuddlement, is ignored by many of the bloggers submitting posts, which sadly results in The Dividist reluctantly ignoring their fine submissions. Among the on-topic posts, essays and articles we choose our favorites for commentary and consideration. The Dividist hopes you enjoy these selections. A reminder - Extremism in defense of Divided Government is no Vice-President:

+++

Michael Moran blogging at Slate takes note of  the Vice Presidential hopeful wrapping himself in the Reagan legacy and shares his thoughts in "Reagan's Mantle, Ryan's Hope":
"Set aside the question of whether the 1981/2013 comparison is valid or not (the case is dubious at best) and let’s look at what Reagan actually did when he took office.... Faced with a difficult economy and divided government, Reagan chose to mix tax cuts with stimulus spending and, yes, tax increases, too. Bruce Bartlett, an economic advisor to Reagan and a Treasury official under George H. W. Bush, professes amazement at the twisting of the historical record by those too young to remember the factual Reagan...
Bartlett reminds us, “The cumulative legislated tax increase during his administration came to $132.7 billion as of 1988 [$367 billion today]. This compared to a gross tax cut of $275.1 billion. Thus Reagan took back about half the 1981 tax cut with subsequent tax increases... Imagine that! The alleged God of Tax Cuts actually raised taxes when he thought progress, political, economic or otherwise, required him to do so.”
 Moran despairs of either party adopting the practical pragmatic governing style that was the hallmark of the Reagan presidency. But he glosses over the very reason why pragmatism was a characteristic of that administration - to whit:  "Faced with a difficult economy and divided government...  Reagan actually worked quite deftly with a Congress in which Democrats held power in both chambers."

The appetite for practical, pragmatic, compromise will be directly proportional to the degree the government remains divided in 2013. There is no chance that the GOP will lose control of the House this cycle, so there is no possibility of the Democrats restoring One Party Democratic Rule. However, the GOP will certainly close the gap in the Senate and have a real possibility of taking control of that chamber. This raises the specter of One Party Republican Rule restored with a Romney / Ryan victory.  In that eventuality Moran's fears of an uncompromising intransigent GOP administration will be realized.

However, if any of the three other possible variations of divided government that will likely result from this election prevail, a pragmatic solutions along the lines of  the "Grand Bargain" is a virtual certainly. This is where the comparison to the Reagan administration is apt. One difference -  This time it is likely to be the Democrat Obama who will need to learn to work deftly with a Congress in which Republicans hold power.

Thursday, August 02, 2012

Rise of the Algos - Knight Capital and the Inevitable Catastrophic HFT Triggered Market Meltdown In Our Future

The HFT Algos Strike Back

It happened again on Wednesday.  A High Frequency Trading  (HFT) proprietary algorithm crafted by highly compensated brains-on-sticks and nurtured in the bowels of an investment bank escaped into the wild. From its carefully co-located massively parallel high speed trading computer it emerged to wreak havoc on the financial markets.  In this case, it was a happy ending. The algo turned on its master and sucked the very life blood out of the firm that deployed it.

The incident is yet another lights-flashing, klaxon-blaring warning signal that competing HFT algorithms operating with the speed, size and complexity that are commonplace today cannot be adequately regulated, tested, or managed. Their interactions with each other cannot even be understood  or predicted.

Wednesday 8-1-12: The Knight Capital Algo Clusterfrack

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Oboomercare & The Dumbest Generation

We are going to need more Millennials.

While I was neglecting my blogging duties last month, the Supreme Court ruled on the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act aka ObamaCare.  Since then the debate reignited on several points:  Did the Supreme Court get it  right or wrong by ruling the individual mandate constitutional because it was really a tax?  Did Chief Justice John Roberts bravely rule on the constitutional merits of the law or did he hide behind the fig leaf of congressional taxing power? Did he show judicial activism or judicial restraintIs ObamaCare the biggest tax increase of all time or is it not? Will ObamaCare reduce the deficit or take the deficit to new heights?

Some of these questions answer themselves. If ObamaCare costs $1 trillion dollars to provide new benefits (and it does), and it does not really control costs (it doesn't), and it really is deficit neutral (as the CBO asserts), then simple arithmetic tells us it must also raise $1 trillion dollars of new revenue (which SCOTUS identifies as a tax to be constitutional).  And that pretty much makes it the biggest nominal tax increase in our history.

Monday, July 09, 2012

Carnival of Divided Government
Quattuor et Quînquâgintâ
Special Back and Blogging Edition


Welcome to the 54th edition of the Carnival of Divided Government - the Special "Back and Blogging!"Edition.

NOTICE: The Dividist hereby retroactively announces that the Dividist Papers Blog will be taking a six week Blogging Sabbatical effective at the conclusion of the Facebook IPO post six weeks ago. We did not know we were taking a six week hiatus at the time. It just sort of happened.

NOTICE: The Dividist has returned from our recently announced blogging sabbatical. We are back and we'll kick off with this slightly late edition of the Carnival of Divided Government. Nothing gets those blogging juices flowing like reviewing and correcting the misrepresentations, misunderstandings and general ignorance about the nature and value of a divided federal government. Somebody has got to do it. If not the Dividist, who? If not now, when?

Carnival of Divided Government LIV

As explained in earlier editions, we have adopted Latin ordinal numeration to impart a patina of gravitas reflecting the historical importance of the series. In this the Carnival of Divided Government LIV (Quattuor et Quînquâgintâ), as in all of the CODGOV editions, we select volunteers and draftees from the blogosphere and main stream media writing on the single topic of government divided between the major parties (leaving it to the reader to sort out volunteers from draftees).

Consistent with this topic, the primary criteria for acceptance in the carnival is to explicitly use the words and/or concept of "divided government" in submitted posts. A criteria that, to our endless befuddlement, is ignored by many of the bloggers submitting posts, which sadly results in The Dividist reluctantly ignoring their fine submissions. Among the on-topic posts, essays and articles we choose our favorites for commentary and consideration. We hope you enjoy these selections, and fresh from our blogging vacation, we submit for your consideration this month's selections:

Friday, May 18, 2012

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Facebook


The Facebook IPO priced at $38 per and the offering was increased 25% by over 100 million shares. At this price Facebook will be the largest tech IPO in history and second largest IPO of all time behind VISA. Depending on how the offering trades, it may finish the day as the largest offering of all time. At the IPO price Facebook as a company will be valued more than tech giants Cisco, Amazon, and more than all except 20 other companies listed on the S&P.

There is no shortage of advice on how to assess the value of Facebook's stock. You can easily find analysis outlining the bull case, the bear case, and everything in between. The financial news networks have turned all their programing over to 7x24 Facebook coverage. Many spent $5.00 to download an anonymous author's analysis in e-book form - The Pitch. This blog will not try to assess the merits of the company value versus the IPO value versus the value of as it trades in a speculative frenzy. However, we will suggest that the best book for analyzing the Facebook offering is available for a free download for your Kindle, or on the web.

Charles Mackay's Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds was first published in 1841 and summarized three economic bubbles:

Tuesday, May 01, 2012

Carnival of Divided Government LIII
Três et Quînquâgintâ
Special May Day Edition


Welcome to the 53rd edition of the Carnival of Divided Government - Special "MAY DAY GENERAL STRIKE!!!!" Edition. It is the First of May - International Worker's Day - May Day - and the official start of the Occupy [FILL IN THE BLANK]! protest season.

Today the Occupiers kick off the season by calling for a national General Strike. Their inspiring motto: "No Work. No School. No Banking. No Shopping. No Housework." is emblazoned across dramatic posters calling for May Day protest actions. Vera HC Chan has identified what may be their most important and lasting cultural contribution: "Whatever the outcome of May Day, one thing has clearly emerged -- the return of propaganda art."

Wait. What? No House Work? Yeah. The poster actually says "No House Work." Is this really how the "99%" are going to stick it to the man? No house work? Some of the posters substitute "No Chores". No joke. It's like an Onion story.

Here in EssEff, the Occupiers were very excited about closing the Golden Gate Bridge. Until they decided not to close the Golden Gate Bridge. Then, apparently experiencing some Midwest Protest Envy, they decided to embark on a "Wisconsin-Style Occupation of San Francisco City Hall". And just like in Wisconsin, about 300 protesters marched into City Hall carrying sleeping bags, made some noise, then left. I guess that is sort of like what happened in Wisconsin. Well, if all else fails, they always have breaking windows and vandalizing small businesses in minority neighborhoods to fall back on.

The Dividist is disappointed that "No Blogging!" was not included in the general strike directives. He now has no excuse for failing to get this latest Carnival of Divided Government posted as scheduled.

Monday, April 23, 2012

Dividist Doubles Down on Divided Government for Six Year Blogiversary



The Dividist let several auspicious dates float by without comment over the last week, including Earth Day, 4-20 Day and Tax Day.  The latter is responsible for us missing the former. One date that we cannot let slip by is the six year blogiversary of The Dividist Papers (aka Divided We Stand United We Fall).  We celebrate by reflecting on the journey as we paraphrase previous posts, plagiarize ourselves, and update some familiar themes and favorite topics.

Six years ago today, the Dividist started this blog by asking the question "Is this blog for you?" As no one else was reading the blog at the time, the Dividist answered his own query saying "Probably not."

Wednesday, April 04, 2012

The Doctrine of False Non-Equivalence
- or -
Why the left whining about "False Equivalence" is equivalent to the right whining about "Liberal Media Bias"

It's all in the framing
image from [F]oxymoron

The President’s comments at the Associated Press luncheon on Tuesday received a great deal of media attention. Much of the punditocracy was focused on the President’s preemptive strike at the Supreme Court and apparent attempt to direct judicial decisions from the oval office. The political grandstanding by the President precipitated a grandstand volley between the judiciary and the DOJ, as well as predictable partisan posturing from both the right and left.

Frankly I am at a loss to understand what Obama hopes to gain from this kind of rhetoric. Sure it will fire up his base, but it also fires up the GOP base to a degree that the presumed Republican nominee could never hope to achieve. I also don’t see how it helps Obama with centrists and independents. When both a former mentor and student think he got it wrong, it is no surprise that his press secretary was on the defensive.

The President also tried to make hay with the oft-repeated point that the individual mandate was supported by Republicans before they were against it. Avik Roy and Ilya Somin point out the converse is also true, with many Democrats (including candidate Obama) opposing the individual mandate before they supported it.

We once again see partisan hackery, hypocrisy, and cynical opportunism from partisans and politicos on both the right and left. Nothing new there.

But is it true equivalent hypocrisy? Or is it false equivalence?

Monday, April 02, 2012

Meta-Infographic on Infographics

Snark-infused infographic hacked from original work by Zabisco.
I've generally found the Infographic deluge to be no more than a minor irritant in the panoply of indignities, insults to intelligence and affronts to common decency that are part and parcel of any casual excursion into the political blogosphere. In many ways, a political Infographic is not vastly different than a blog post. There is usually an agenda, cherry-picked factoids selected to support the agenda, and a sensationalist misleading headline intended to attract attention and links.

Sunday, April 01, 2012

Carnival of Divided Government LII
Duo et Quînquâgintâ
Special April Fools Edition

Welcome to the 52nd edition of the Carnival of Divided Government - Special April Fools Day Edition.

April Fool's Day - The Dividist can think of nothing more foolish than permitting either major party to govern and legislate without the moderating effect and enhanced oversight found only within the constraints of divided government.

With over 80% of our fellow citizens voting along pure party lines in federal elections (regardless of what they tell you, what they tell pollsters. or even what they tell themselves), asking the few true Independents to cast their vote based on the situational partisan landscape in any given election may indeed be a fool's errand.  No matter.  The Dividist embraces the iconography of the "The Fool" Card in the Tarot Deck:
"Think of The Fool not so much as naive as open-minded and optimistic. The Fool is hopeful and positive, and he's doing his best to shine a light on new beliefs, innovative and shocking ideas and the unpredictability of life."
Indeed.

As explained in earlier editions, we have adopted Latin ordinal numeration to impart a patina of gravitas reflecting the historical importance of the series. In this the Carnival of Divided Government LII (Duo et Quînquâgintâ), as in all of the CODGOV editions, we select volunteers and draftees from the blogosphere and main stream media writing on the single topic of government divided between the major parties (leaving it to the reader to sort out volunteers from draftees).

Consistent with this topic, the primary criteria for acceptance in the carnival is to explicitly use the words and/or concept of "divided government" in submitted posts. A criteria that, to our endless befuddlement, is ignored by many of the bloggers submitting posts, which sadly results in The Dividist reluctantly ignoring their fine submissions. Among the on-topic posts, essays and articles we choose our favorites for commentary and consideration. We hope you enjoy these selections, and without further foolishness, we submit for your consideration  this month's selections (actually published on April 2nd - gotcha!) .

Saturday, March 31, 2012

Earth Hour in San Francisco

San Francisco at 8:15 PM, fifteen minute before Earth Hour.

Tonight San Francisco observed "Earth Hour", an international celebration of freezing in the dark. Or something. During the hour of 8:30 - 9:30 PM local time, people all over the world turned off unnecessary lights. Then, at 9:31 PM, people all over the world turned all their unnecessary lights back on.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Don't Cry For Me San Francisco -
The Mirkarimi Musical

An Ess Eff Scandal Pregnant with Possibilities

Your loyal blogger has been transfixed in recent weeks by the unfolding saga of our recently elected Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi and his firecracker Venezuelan wife - telenovella star Eliana Lopez. Several times I started to knock up a blog update when new plot twists, an "only in San Francisco" character, or breaking news stopped me short. Finally I realized a mere blog post can no longer encompass the epic scope of this unfolding morality tale.

Some have characterized this story as a Soap Opera, Godfather Sequel, or Greek Tragedy. They all miss the mark. Nothing less than a full scale Golden Age Hollywood Musical Extravaganza or an Epic Operatic production on a Wagnerian scale will do it justice. Having neither the skill nor the time to do this properly, I'll just sketch out a few ideas in the hope that someone will take this and run with it. My fervent hope is that someday I will be sitting in the front row and watching this production at the San Francisco Opera House. Look for me opening night.

I see a three act production - recognizing the last act and final denouement is yet to be written and unfolding as we speak.

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Let's play "Clue": Was it Mr. Corzine in the Board Room with the "Smoking Gun" E-mail?


Some mysteries are not very mysterious. The culprit seems obvious. But the wheels of intrigue turn slowly, investigations proceed at their own pace, and the full story emerges grudgingly over months and years.

As we have chronicled on this blog from the first week that MF Global declared bankruptcy, the mystery of the missing "sacrosanct" segregated client funds was not something that could be explained away with run-of-the-mill corporate incompetence and executive malfeasance:

Monday, March 19, 2012

Defending the defensible: Citizens United - two years and one election later.


Over two years have passed since the Supreme Court cleared away any barriers to corporate participation in our electoral process. This decision was widely panned across the political spectrum and may have damaged the Courts reputation. Many on the right, left, and center feared the consequences of even more big money unleashed in the political process, but the most hysterical and apocalyptic criticism came from the left. Words like disaster, catastrophe, subversive, destructive, and indefensible were and are routinely used by the left to describe the Court's decision.
Enough time has passed that we can now begin to assess the actual effects of the decision as opposed to speculating about future damage and giving voice to our fear and loathing of hypothetical scenarios. Tim Cavanaugh of Reason Magazine takes a look at the subsequent impact of the Citizens United Supreme Court decision and finds"Five Ways Citizens United Is Making Politics Better":

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Schmidt Agonistes
Game Change - The Movie

UPDATED: 11-March-12

This weekend, HBO will broadcast a highly promoted dramatization of Game Change – John Heilemann and Mark Halperin’s novelization of the 2008 presidential campaign. I read the paperback version and am looking forward to seeing the docudrama.

I posted a review of the book in December 2010 and will extract a few observations here that may (or may not) be relevant to the broadcast.