Saturday, October 13, 2007

Stack Ranking the Contenders

Updated rankings, informed by Tuesday's Republican debate. This the tenth major update since the very first DWSUWF Presidential Stack Ranking was posted on 06:06:06 AM on 06/06/06, the latest since the ranking of 07:07:07 AM on 07/07/07, and the second stack ranking since DWSUWF embraced Republicanism (sort of) ...

DWSUWF 2008 Presidential Candidate
Stack Ranking v. 2.7

1) Ron Paul (R)
2 ) Chris Dodd (D)
3) Mitt Romney (R)
4) Joe Biden (D)
5) Fred Thompson (R)
6) Hillary Clinton (D)
7) John McCain (R)
8) Barack Obama (D)
9) Chuck Hagel (R) /Mike Bloomberg (I)/ Unity08
10) Al Gore (D)
Changes: The major changes are on the Republican side. With Hagel out, Ron Paul moves to the top of the Republican rankings. I am just not willing to completely let go of Chuck quite yet. I cling to the hope that he is no more sincere about not "intending" to be a candidate than Larry Craig was "intending" to resign from the Senate. I hooked Chuck up with Bloomberg in the number 9 spot on the off chance that Unity08 fills the gap if/when the GOP collapses completely. Ron Paul's fund raising, debate performance and internet savvy campaign continues to impress, although I still do not believe he has a snowball's chance in Hell of winning the nomination.

Iraq remains my primary issue for 2008, which presents a challenge to my Republican ranking with Hagel out. Romney's slick Clintonesque sincere-ish quality, even when explaining 180 degree flip-flops in core convictions serves him well in this regard. It is clear that, like Bill Clinton, he will govern based on the polls and continuous compromise. Not a bad thing, since there will still be a Democratic majority in Congress in 2009 and 70% of America wanting us out of Iraq. As president, Romney will get us out of Iraq quickly, no matter what he says now to get the nomination. He can be trusted to blow with wind. Out of this batch of Republican candidates, it's good enough for me. After Iraq as an issue, respect for the Constitution and individual liberties rises to the fore. I liked Fred Thompson's answer in the debate about securing Congressional approval and American support before any more foreign military adventuring, so he debuts in the ranking as my number three Republican. McCain's views on the war are a problem, but the rest of the Republican field on torture and civil liberties are worse. McCain holds our fourth Republican spot.

On the Democrat side, I can't make excuses for Bill Richardson's gaffe's anymore so have dropped him completely. In any case, he is apparently running for Vice President and Barack Obama has the inside track for that role. Chris Dodd is now giving Biden competition as the most articulate and intelligent of the Dems in the debate, and HRC remains, not surprisingly, the most "Clintonesque" (see Romney description above) of the Democrats. Although I still do not believe that he will run, I have added Al Gore in a special guest appearance in the ranking, as an acknowledgment of his Nobel Peace Prize honor.

As a reminder, the DWSUWF stack ranking is a preference not a prediction. This list represents the top ten candidates DWSUWF would like to see as President, stack ranked in order of preference. Imposed on this list are two constraints: alternating political party affiliation, and a divided government outcome in 2008.

Divided and Balanced.™ Now that is fair.

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